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Snoopy1

Snoopy1
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  • The Traders Did It! [View article]
    Martin, you are right about Gramm–Leach–Bliley (Financial Services Modernization Act Of 1999) being the real lynchpin for the financial collapse.

    Obviously, I don't think most politicians would have predicted the disastrous results. However, now that we know how irresponsible Wall Street will be in the pursuit of profits, which party still against deregulation? That's right - Republicans.
    Jul 12 08:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble (PG +3.1%) adds to early gains as more reports circulate that Pershing Square will take (or already has) a position in the company after landing FTC approval to hold shares. Pershing Square didn't hold any shares of P&G at the end of March, according to its Q1 SEC filing. (Earlier on PG: Glass half full  vs. glass half empty[View news story]
    After Ackman's big bet on JCP, count me skeptical. :-)
    Jul 12 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Poised For A Substantial Upside [View article]
    Einhorn was on CNBC today and wouldn't say anything about HLF. Given he generally talks about his shorts, why wouldn't he in this situation? The faster it drops, the faster he profits and can move to the next investment.

    I personally think HLF a decent value here and assuming no short news from Einhorn, you should see the shares at $60-$65 by year end after 1-2 quarters of decent results using a 14-15x forward P/E.
    Jul 10 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa (V -2.5%) and Mastercard (MA -3.5%) face an "unavoidable" slowing in the next 3-6 months, says UBS' John Williams, downgrading both to Sell. He worries that both stocks sit near all-time highs even as they are exposed to clear weakening in global consumer spending.  [View news story]
    The analyst probably hates the stock return divergence between his recommended bank stocks and V/MA and he assumes mean reversion will occur.

    I'm curious why he reduced his targets by $14 and $54 respectively, to $113 and $403.

    Top manager Chuck Akre recently said MA was his favorite stock and has a 12% weighting in his AKREX fund of MA/V.
    Jul 9 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Continues To Exceed Our Expectations [View article]
    Not bad, but not sure if $121 represents a great buy price at 17.6x forward P/E if you already have exposure.

    If you did buy at $121, I would combined it with a bullish 120/130 ratio covered call - 100 long shares with one 120 Jan 2013 call and short 130 130 calls for a $1.75 credit. This amplifies your returns as long as V doesn't go up dramatically.
    Jul 9 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens When Smartphones Are A Free Good? [View article]
    Great observation Charles - nothing is free - somebody always gets paid. The companies that hold the economic power (reaps the majority of total profits) changes over time.

    That is why I own some of the tower companies (CCI, SBAC, AMT). While many areas will become commoditized, mobile services will likely always need these towers to send data so tower firms have pricing power as each geographic tower is somewhat of a monopoly (zoning and capex creates a moat).
    Jul 8 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt is going to be the ending of the developed world, says The Smartest Man in Europe, according to Byron Wien. Politicians can keep staving off catastrophe, but not forever, and in the meantime, the standard of living in the developed world will continue to converge with that of the developing. What's he buying: IBM and Apple (AAPL). Go figure.  [View news story]
    @kmi - Romney will do better by cutting taxes, pushing deregulation and possibly go to war with Iran.

    These same policies worked wonders under Bush.

    (note heavy sarcasm)
    Jul 4 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt is going to be the ending of the developed world, says The Smartest Man in Europe, according to Byron Wien. Politicians can keep staving off catastrophe, but not forever, and in the meantime, the standard of living in the developed world will continue to converge with that of the developing. What's he buying: IBM and Apple (AAPL). Go figure.  [View news story]
    @rgauntt - I really hate when people don't understand the real drivers behind the deficit/debt numbers. I will help you out:

    http://bit.ly/t24ESB
    Jul 4 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt is going to be the ending of the developed world, says The Smartest Man in Europe, according to Byron Wien. Politicians can keep staving off catastrophe, but not forever, and in the meantime, the standard of living in the developed world will continue to converge with that of the developing. What's he buying: IBM and Apple (AAPL). Go figure.  [View news story]
    Please tell me exactly how Obama has killed free enterprise. Corporate profits and the stock market are booming and we've seen 27 straight months of slow/moderate job growth under this President. Under Bush, we had no real job or median income growth and a financial crash. Sure, times were good under Bush during the speculative real estate bubble, but we now know that was unsustainable.

    Before you post partisan dribble, please look at the facts.
    Jul 3 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt is going to be the ending of the developed world, says The Smartest Man in Europe, according to Byron Wien. Politicians can keep staving off catastrophe, but not forever, and in the meantime, the standard of living in the developed world will continue to converge with that of the developing. What's he buying: IBM and Apple (AAPL). Go figure.  [View news story]
    Actually, Bloomberg had a great article showing that the stock market and private sector employment are better under Democrats.

    http://bloom.bg/Mtzo6m

    http://bloom.bg/Nuif6x

    In addition, Bloomberg's poll of global institutional investors favor Obama over Romney:

    http://bloom.bg/MtzqLj

    I look at actual economic policies and results and come to conclusions.
    Jul 3 02:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Likely Impact Of Apple Solving The Chinese iPad Problem [View article]
    Any views regarding the June qtr results? I personally bought a 4S last week but I'm sure many will delay in anticipation of iPhone 5.

    I would assume people will look beyond the quarter given this.
    Jul 2 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Likely Impact Of Apple Solving The Chinese iPad Problem [View article]
    I thought it might be partly due to the legal injunction on Samsung's Nexus with a possibility of the same for the Galaxy S III.
    Jul 2 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Continues To Exceed Our Expectations [View article]
    Like some others here, I bought V before the legislation was resolved and recently bought MA at $405.

    It seems that MA currently has better metrics for ROIC, FCF as % of net income and a lower forward P/E while having a similar forward growth rate.

    MA: 35% ROIC, 1.2x FCF/NI and 17.8x forward P/E
    V: 15% ROIC, 1.02 FCF/NI, 18.2x forward P/E

    Is there a reason to like V over MA?
    Jul 1 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Chance To Make 50% On Apple With Little Downside Risk [View article]
    Great strategy. When AAPL was $453 in January, I sold a 360 Jan 2013 put and bought a 450/520 call spread for a low-risk strategy as I figured $520 was easily achievable by Jan 2013 given the many catalysts (iPhone 5, China, dividend initiation etc.) before then. Your Jan 2014 carries a little more risk with MSFT Surface and potential competitive/carrier issues in the phone market. But since you aren't putting any money down with a low put strike, it still seems like a favorable risk/reward, but I think @Roger's put strategy above has a better payoff matrix.

    The one issue I have with the article is 3-6 months onto a 18 month call spread, it's very unlikely you can cash out with 50-60% of the max profit given the remaining time (option decay) unless the stock really rockets.
    Jul 1 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion: Hope Is Not A Strategy [View article]
    Covering was just my guess as some surely are locking in profits after the event.

    Either that or Prem Watsa thinks his shareholders haven't suffered enough. :-)
    Jun 29 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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