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  • Comparing Apple 2012 Vs. Cisco 2000? Misreading The Charts [View article]
    CSCO P/FCF is actually understated as CSCO's FCF benefited from the addback of massive stock compensation expense which is a real economic expense as CSCO had to spend billions to buy back shares to prevent dilution from these granted options.
    Apr 9 12:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - 9 Things To Watch Next Week (4/5/12) [View article]
    Actually, Cramer's ActionAlerts Plus "charitable" portfolio has not beaten the market over a nine year period according to a 2011 WSJ article. Barron's also had a scathing article on this charlatan a few years ago showing Cramer usually picked what had already gone up in the previous 2 weeks and the average 3-month subsequent performance was worse than the S&P500.

    Like many unethical stock pushers, Cramer only trumpets his winners while ignoring his many losers - remember when he said that 2008 was the year of natural gas? Remember in November that Cramer said AAPL was not a great stock anymore without Steve Jobs and thought GOOG was far superior?

    Take a look at his top 4 Dow ideas for 2012 - he ignored all tech and financial stocks, the 2 best sectors this year. Probably because they did poorly last year and Cramer only buys stocks that already have gone up.
    Apr 8 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - 9 Things To Watch Next Week (4/5/12) [View article]
    I don't trust Cramer regarding any stock. The guy is a clown and only made money at his hedge fund in the 90s because he chased overvalued tech stocks.

    Anyone who listens to Cramer's advice deserves to lose money.
    Apr 8 01:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Be Cautiously Bullish On Apple [View article]

    Thanks for another good article.

    Applying a "what if I am wrong" philosophy, maybe the best risk/reward strategy with zero upfront cost is to sell a lower May 575 put and buy a 635/660 call spread for just $50 per contract set. (if OK with some money up front, maybe a $545 put with a $500 net strategy cost).

    Breakeven on the zero-cost strategy is just $635.50 and provides a better profit than the article's 670 long call up to $694.50.

    Granted, you do have a problem closing out the position right after earnings with nearly a month of time value remaining on the 660 call but time value will drop dramatically after earnings.
    Apr 6 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple's Growth Stop In 2013? [View article]
    You are 100% correct - equity pessimism was extremely high and PIMCO was talking about a depression and that equities weren't safe because they have no claim in the event of bankruptcy.

    It really makes me wonder why the GOP is using the strategy of asking "Are you better off now than before Obama?". Anyone who says "no" is either crazy, a short seller or a bankruptcy attorney.
    Apr 5 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Being Shrewd And Offering No Apologies [View article]
    Is there any idea what the next "gadget" could be?

    There is always a risk of technological discontinuity that hurts the entrenched players.

    I can't imagine what would replace the smartphone or tablet, but then I never thought one could access the internet on one's phone 20 years ago.
    Apr 4 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Speculative Stocks And A Smart Way To Get Long [View article]
    Is there an low-risk option trade you would do on AAPL assuming it hangs out in this general vicinity?
    Apr 4 11:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Still Has 84% Probability Of 20% Return In The Next 12 Months [View article]
    This type of analysis is almost always useless. It's just extrapolation combined with anchoring.

    Funny how these analyses usually predict 20% upside just like analyst target prices for AAPL are almost always 15-25% higher than the current price.

    I wonder what this "analysis" would have predicted for RIMM 1 year ago?
    Apr 3 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple 2012 Same As Microsoft 2004? Not A Chance [View article]
    That's what you get from CNBC, a bunch of "pros" using simplistic analysis that usually turns out to be wrong.
    Apr 3 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Shares Probably Won't Be Hitting $700 Anytime Soon [View article]
    Plus MSFT was going to have a hard time making money in some of the emerging markets like China.

    Bill Gates once said, that with all the piracy, "one copy can feed a nation".

    While there are some fake iPhones, knockoffs are not a huge issue.
    Apr 3 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Shares Probably Won't Be Hitting $700 Anytime Soon [View article]
    OK, I'm convinced. I just can't argue with solid fundamental analysis like that. :-)
    Apr 3 12:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Shares Probably Won't Be Hitting $700 Anytime Soon [View article]
    I used to use charts to pick stocks, but I upgraded to reading chicken entrails. :-)

    Chartists are right 1/2 the time if they're lucky.

    "When I turn a stock chart upside down, it tells me the exact same thing - nothing."
    - Warren Buffett
    Apr 3 12:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outperforming The Market With Covered Calls [View article]
    Can you explain why, since inception in early 2008, the PowerShares S&P 500 BuyWrite (PBP) has underperformed the more-tax-efficient S&P500 index as well as trailing significantly over the past 3 years per Morningstar data?

    The trailing 3-year underperformance is especially disappointing for investors as I assume much of the fund flows occurred after the 2008 market drop.
    Mar 27 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hussman: Beware Profit Margin Mean Reversion [View article]
    Yes Hammer, inflation may hit margins of many companies which is why it is important to find companies with pricing power and/or power over it's suppliers.

    My 2 largest holdings are AAPL (addictive products and negotiating power with suppliers) and PM (addictive products).

    AAPL will see some pressure to margins from Foxconn raising wages, but it's competitors' margins will be hurt much more.
    Mar 27 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hussman: Beware Profit Margin Mean Reversion [View article]
    Hussman is not necessarily a good market timer or investor, but I read his articles as they often mention issues that nobody else is discussing.
    Mar 27 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment