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Snoopy1

Snoopy1
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  • Building A Portfolio, One Wish-List Stock At A Time [View article]
    Agree - I would suggest just 12-20 stocks over 5-6 industries with the heaviest weights in those with the best projected risk-adjusted returns.

    Any more and you risk practicing "diworsification" - why put money in your 20th best idea?

    My individual stock portfolio is 24 stock with 2/3 of funds in the top 10 positions with no stock more than 15% weighting and the small 1-2% sized positions are "watchlist" stocks.
    Jul 16, 2012. 07:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Goldman Sachs Is Worth $200 A Share [View article]
    I agree.

    The author using a target 2x BV destroys his credibility as GS traded at those levels only during a capital markets bubble with massive leverage and a different business model (significant proprietary trading).

    On a normalized basis (moderate leverage and decent capital mkts), GS should be able to produce 12%+ return on tangible BV so 1x tBV seems very reasonable (currently $124/share). Obviously, this may be conservative as shown by the fact Buffett never unloaded his GS $115 warrants even above $150 last year so he probably thinks a normalized return on tBV is materially higher than 12%.

    This is a "time horizon arbitrage" - it may take a while to reach fair value due to a lack of catalysts, but the discount seems to justify buying a starter position and averaging down.
    Jul 14, 2012. 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Part of the $7.25B settlement that merchants reached with credit-card networks and card issuers means that merchants can charge a higher rate (as a "checkout fee") for consumers using a card for payment. After hours: V +1.7%; MA +1%. (Statement from MasterCard)  [View news story]
    Do you know what the investor expectations were for a settlement? I know V just stated that there will be no impact to guidance so I assume it was better than expected.
    Jul 14, 2012. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activist Bill Ackman's New Target [View article]
    He could always buy options like he did with his one stock fund that owned TGT. That fund was a disaster.
    Jul 14, 2012. 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part of the $7.25B settlement that merchants reached with credit-card networks and card issuers means that merchants can charge a higher rate (as a "checkout fee") for consumers using a card for payment. After hours: V +1.7%; MA +1%. (Statement from MasterCard)  [View news story]
    Why are V and MA up in the aftermarket if there may be a reduction in swipe fees?
    Jul 13, 2012. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part of the $7.25B settlement that merchants reached with credit-card networks and card issuers means that merchants can charge a higher rate (as a "checkout fee") for consumers using a card for payment. After hours: V +1.7%; MA +1%. (Statement from MasterCard)  [View news story]
    That's my point. I pay off my credit cards every month so I pay no interest but gain airline miles. With credit cards, I don't need to keep track of my checking account balance and I just pay my credit card bill from my brokerage account where I earn interest.

    To me, paying by debit card implies that one lacks discipline as there is no reason to use them otherwise. Am I missing some other benefit of debit?
    Jul 13, 2012. 08:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part of the $7.25B settlement that merchants reached with credit-card networks and card issuers means that merchants can charge a higher rate (as a "checkout fee") for consumers using a card for payment. After hours: V +1.7%; MA +1%. (Statement from MasterCard)  [View news story]
    Why do you use a debit card rather than a credit card? Nobody has ever been able to explain the benefit of debit cards, unless you lack spending discipline.

    If you pay off your credit card each month, there is no reason to use your debit card and using credit cards may give you airline miles etc.
    Jul 13, 2012. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Traders Did It! [View article]
    Ooops, I meant who is still against regulation - republicans.
    Jul 13, 2012. 02:13 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Traders Did It! [View article]
    Martin, you are right about Gramm–Leach–Bliley (Financial Services Modernization Act Of 1999) being the real lynchpin for the financial collapse.

    Obviously, I don't think most politicians would have predicted the disastrous results. However, now that we know how irresponsible Wall Street will be in the pursuit of profits, which party still against deregulation? That's right - Republicans.
    Jul 12, 2012. 08:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble (PG +3.1%) adds to early gains as more reports circulate that Pershing Square will take (or already has) a position in the company after landing FTC approval to hold shares. Pershing Square didn't hold any shares of P&G at the end of March, according to its Q1 SEC filing. (Earlier on PG: Glass half full  vs. glass half empty[View news story]
    After Ackman's big bet on JCP, count me skeptical. :-)
    Jul 12, 2012. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Poised For A Substantial Upside [View article]
    Einhorn was on CNBC today and wouldn't say anything about HLF. Given he generally talks about his shorts, why wouldn't he in this situation? The faster it drops, the faster he profits and can move to the next investment.

    I personally think HLF a decent value here and assuming no short news from Einhorn, you should see the shares at $60-$65 by year end after 1-2 quarters of decent results using a 14-15x forward P/E.
    Jul 10, 2012. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa (V -2.5%) and Mastercard (MA -3.5%) face an "unavoidable" slowing in the next 3-6 months, says UBS' John Williams, downgrading both to Sell. He worries that both stocks sit near all-time highs even as they are exposed to clear weakening in global consumer spending.  [View news story]
    The analyst probably hates the stock return divergence between his recommended bank stocks and V/MA and he assumes mean reversion will occur.

    I'm curious why he reduced his targets by $14 and $54 respectively, to $113 and $403.

    Top manager Chuck Akre recently said MA was his favorite stock and has a 12% weighting in his AKREX fund of MA/V.
    Jul 9, 2012. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Continues To Exceed Our Expectations [View article]
    Not bad, but not sure if $121 represents a great buy price at 17.6x forward P/E if you already have exposure.

    If you did buy at $121, I would combined it with a bullish 120/130 ratio covered call - 100 long shares with one 120 Jan 2013 call and short 130 130 calls for a $1.75 credit. This amplifies your returns as long as V doesn't go up dramatically.
    Jul 9, 2012. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens When Smartphones Are A Free Good? [View article]
    Great observation Charles - nothing is free - somebody always gets paid. The companies that hold the economic power (reaps the majority of total profits) changes over time.

    That is why I own some of the tower companies (CCI, SBAC, AMT). While many areas will become commoditized, mobile services will likely always need these towers to send data so tower firms have pricing power as each geographic tower is somewhat of a monopoly (zoning and capex creates a moat).
    Jul 8, 2012. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debt is going to be the ending of the developed world, says The Smartest Man in Europe, according to Byron Wien. Politicians can keep staving off catastrophe, but not forever, and in the meantime, the standard of living in the developed world will continue to converge with that of the developing. What's he buying: IBM and Apple (AAPL). Go figure.  [View news story]
    @kmi - Romney will do better by cutting taxes, pushing deregulation and possibly go to war with Iran.

    These same policies worked wonders under Bush.

    (note heavy sarcasm)
    Jul 4, 2012. 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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