Seeking Alpha

Snoopy1

Snoopy1
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Snoopy1's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Barron's: GM stock looks dirt cheap [View news story]
    If you want to be taken seriously, you really need to lay out an analysis with financial projections and valuation methodology.

    I've done my own analysis and think GM's current value is high $40s but look forward to why it's really $20.
    Jul 15 06:21 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy: Visa [View article]
    @chop - I agree. Most sell-side reports have a 3-year stock chart on the last page annotated with a line showing price targets.

    It's comical. In 80%+ of the cases, when a stock reaches their target, they just move it up 10-20% and when the stock drops, the target drops a similar amount. Even if forward EPS estimates don't change much, the analyst change the target P/E to come up with the new target.
    Jul 15 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy: Visa [View article]
    Goldman's target is in line with the rest of the sell-side so I don't think this is necessarily bullish.
    Jul 15 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Recall: General Motors' Strength Through The Fiasco [View article]
    You think GM won't hit $40 within a year? Yes, there will be bear markets but what does that have to do with a company's long-term intrinsic value? If a stock is undervalued, it's worth considering notwithstanding your compelling "dud" analysis.

    I as well as many top value investors disagree your $20s valuation. GM cars are now finally very competitive, cost structure in line, Europe soon to breakeven and China is a nice long-term tailwind for the company and Barra is handling the recall well.

    See you at $40!
    Jul 14 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy: Visa [View article]
    @chop, I agree. If you buy V or MA at a fair valuation, you will almost surely see a sell-off later. That's when one should add exposure through a call spread or risk reversal.

    For example, if one buys today at $220 and it drops to $200 next month, just a add a Jan 200/220 call spread. It's basically averaging down with less capital commitment.

    I think a 20-23x forward P/E range is a good way to calculate add/trim points.
    Jul 14 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Recall: General Motors' Strength Through The Fiasco [View article]
    $40 is about 8.5x 2015 EPS and you think that's overvalued?

    Is your entire analysis based on GM and mgmt being a "dud"?
    Jul 14 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Visa Is Only Expensive If You Can't Think 5 Years Ahead [View article]
    @gfmn2000, AXP (and DFS) isn't like V or MA. It acts as it's own bank and takes the credit risk so it gets essentially all of the fee plus high interest on balances.
    Jul 14 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Recall: General Motors' Strength Through The Fiasco [View article]
    Maybe you should take a basic valuation course?

    How do you come to your sub $20 price target for GM? That would be 4x 2015 EPS. Be specific because I can't seem to understand your valuation rationale, especially with the long-term tailwind of the growing Chinese market. You seem to think every company with a scandal deserves a 50% stock drop regardless of current valuation.

    What is your position in GM, if any?
    Jul 9 03:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Momentum Stock Poised For A Breakout? Amazon [View article]
    I was just pointing out that Miller had a horrible 5+ year streak and was fired from his own fund. Take those facts as you will.
    Jul 9 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Recall: General Motors' Strength Through The Fiasco [View article]
    Budavar,

    40x P/E ratio? I love how you include one-time charges for 2014 and completely ignore the 8x 2015 P/E.

    Smart investors value companies on future normalized earnings.
    Jul 9 11:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Momentum Stock Poised For A Breakout? Amazon [View article]
    I'm not sure whether you're kidding. Have you seen Miller's record over the past 10 years? He had to step down managing his flagship fund despite being the head of the firm.
    Jul 8 07:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Doom And Boom At GM: More Recalls But Sales Keep Rising [View article]
    Budavar took the 1% increase in sales which beat analyst estimates by 6 points and said it's a fluke and irrelevant. Actual GM investors didn't feel that way.
    Jul 7 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail car sales in China rise 14% [View news story]
    funfun, still waiting for you to explain your strategy of being both long and short GM. How many portfolios are you running?

    If you're so consistently negative, why not just be short?
    Jul 7 01:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail car sales in China rise 14% [View news story]
    Hold on, there are recalls for GM cars? :-)
    Jul 7 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Compensation Policy In Perspective [View article]
    You do realize that mgmt reserves through charges for the expected cost of the recall and lawsuits, right? They will throw in everything and the kitchen sink so 2015 should be a "clean" number close to $5/share. Europe should be profitable by 2016 and the growing Chinese market will provide a tailwind for the next several years.

    The fact you think the world's #2 automaker that is growing and trading at 8x next years EPS is a "speculative" investment makes me question your basic understanding of investing.

    What do you think GM shares should trade at and how do you calculate that figure? Be specific.
    Jul 3 12:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,105 Comments
1,480 Likes