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Snoopy1

Snoopy1
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  • General Motors: Accidental High Yielder Is A Buy After Recent Decline [View article]
    I agree Ray. We need to wait until the EU starts to break even in 2015 to get a real sense of mid-cycle profitability. GM is also moving to fewer platforms which helps margins and China looks to be a nice tailwind for the next decade. GM finally seems to make good cars (ATS, CTS, Vette, Malibu etc.) and was #1 in the latest J.D. Powers quality survey.

    I conservatively see the stock in the high $40s in a year (9-10x 2015 EPS) which is a very nice 35% return with dividends.
    Feb 15 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Auto industry: All eyes on Chattanooga [View news story]
    Because they are driven by right wing ideology? :-)
    Feb 14 06:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Auto industry: All eyes on Chattanooga [View news story]
    German companies have used the Works Council Concept very successfully for years, so union representation is actually pretty consistent with German business practices.
    Feb 14 12:45 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adding High Growth Core Holdings To Strengthen My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Good call on V and SBUX. While they seem expensive on a forward P/E basis, they both have strong runways for growth and strong competitive positions.
    I've owned V for a couple years and just recently bought SBUX at $70.90 after it finally dipped to 25x forward P/E, the most I would want to pay for a large cap growth stock.
    Feb 12 06:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zacks' Bear Of The Day: General Motors [View article]
    Even Musk said TSLA stock was clearly overvalued at lower levels last year. TSLA builds nice cars but it's stock is only interesting to speculators.
    Feb 10 09:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zacks' Bear Of The Day: General Motors [View article]
    Care to offer any analysis regarding what TSLA is worth?
    Feb 10 07:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Three look to incentives to clear dealer lots [View news story]
    Yes, there's higher inventories and discounting. The smart investor is ignoring the short-term noise and asking what's the fair value for GM and F.

    It seems that GM should be at least $43 in a year when 2015 profits are more clear. That's 25% including dividends. I own the shares and have a risk reversal call spread options strategy (short Jan '15 27 puts and long 35/45 call spread).
    Feb 10 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Are Scared Of The Current Market, This Article Clarifies Why You Should Be [View article]
    I'm confused, we're still near all-time highs - how can this be the best buying opportunity in a "long time"? Do you define long time as a month?

    I think the market is priced for a 3-7% IRR over the next 5 years, which is more optimistic that Jeremy Grantham at GMO has a 7 year projection of about 2% nominal IRR.
    Feb 4 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Buy Of The Month: Philip Morris International [View article]
    Thanks for yet another excellent article!

    I think most investors are avoiding PM now because no EPS growth in 2014 despite the buyback and concern about the upcoming quarterly report. But if one is a long-term investor, the mid-$70s seems to be a very nice area for additional purchases.
    Feb 3 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM CEO Barra focuses on Opel [View news story]
    GM is consolidating it's auto platforms over the next couple years which should further improve the quality of their offerings and improve profitability. I think Barra has the right roadmap for success.

    GM shares should be $45-$50 in the next year. If it falls below $35 near term, I will pick up some warrants.
    Feb 2 07:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM inks labor deal with workers at three German factories [View news story]
    I listed many articles explaining why his plan was flawed and likely to destroy the auto industry. But by all means, ignore reality.
    Feb 2 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM inks labor deal with workers at three German factories [View news story]
    Fine - ignore reality.
    Feb 2 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM inks labor deal with workers at three German factories [View news story]
    There was no DIP financing available from banks, private equity etc.
    Please read the NYT article by former leading investment banker and private equity executive Stephen Rattner I posted. Maybe you might learn something.
    Here are other articles about the need for the gov't to step in.
    http://lat.ms/1fzL3g5
    http://cnnmon.ie/1fzL8k1
    http://econ.st/1fPvmzB
    Feb 2 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM inks labor deal with workers at three German factories [View news story]
    Romney's plan for GM was a work of fantasy. A managed bankruptcy wasn't possible because private capital was completely frozen in 2008 - no private equity firm or bank would loan GM money even with DIP financing.
    http://nyti.ms/1biudxP

    Ford's Mulally also agreed that the gov't bailout was the right thing to do.

    http://bit.ly/1fzJ0ss
    Feb 2 07:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Into MasterCard's Sell-Off? [View article]
    MA is still a great long-term investment but I think the stock gain will be more moderate in the next 12 months (7%-15% gain) given it's high valuation.
    To boost returns, one can buy shares at $75.68 and layer on a Jan 2015 1:2 ratio 70/83 bullish call spread for just $0.80 and it reduces breakeven to $73 and caps returns at 26% at $83 ($95 equivalent). This approach to buying MA is a "no-brainer" if you expect moderate returns in 2014.
    Feb 1 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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