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Snoopy1

Snoopy1
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  • Berkshire Hathaway nears $30B deal for Precision Castparts [View news story]
    Tim,

    I didn't make a personal attack or name call, I simply pointed out that your understanding regarding antitrust laws as it pertains to BRKA as a company was lacking. An instance of an inadvertent filing error involving USG is unrelated to what you were charging in your post and antitrust experts will agree with my assessment.
    Aug 9, 2015. 07:02 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway nears $30B deal for Precision Castparts [View news story]
    Tim clearly doesn't understand anti-trust laws. BRKA is a conglomerate with interests in a wide range of companies in sufficiently competitive industries.
    Aug 9, 2015. 06:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway nears $30B deal for Precision Castparts [View news story]
    You will get Buffett's bid price. If it's a $230 cash bid, you will receive $230 in exchange for your PCP shares in a few months once the deal closes. In the unlikely event it is a stock and cash bid (e.g. 50/50), you will receive $115 cash on the closing date as well as shares in BRKA worth about $115 depending on collar provisions.
    Aug 9, 2015. 06:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ValueAct Targets Twenty-First Century Fox [View article]
    With today's drop to $28, I wonder if Ubben will add more. Media stocks have been getting wacked of late - is the sub and advertising model broken with OTT alternatives like NFLX etc.?
    Aug 6, 2015. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priceline Is A Great Company, But Not A Buy For Every Investor [View article]
    Thanks for your reply. What quality companies do you currently like?
    Apr 4, 2015. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Priceline Is A Great Company, But Not A Buy For Every Investor [View article]
    Daniel,

    Given stocks are valued on future earnings and FCF, you have to make assumptions in order to value a company. Do you think the analysts are too optimistic on 2016 EPS ($67.50), and if so why? I'm using 2016 EPS of $63 to account for F/X risk.
    Apr 3, 2015. 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case For Google [View article]
    While from an academic standpoint unlevered FCF adds back option expense, this is a real economic expense and the cash needed to buy back shares to prevent dilution should be incorporated into the valuation model. Assuming your other projections are correct, this would result in a roughly 20% haircut to your valuation.
    Jan 1, 2015. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting The Gold Selloff Into Perspective [View article]
    @Ninja,

    Yeah, lots of gold bugs were saying that same thing a year ago, and a year before that...

    I remember gold bugs were saying in 2011 that people should have at least 10-20% of their net worth in gold. The stock market has crushed gold since then, but the gold bugs keep on claiming that gold will come back. I'm sure gold bugs were saying that in the mid-80s too.

    How do you value gold? Be specific. I have never heard a reasonable metric except for the cost of mining it, although jewelry does create some demand.

    "[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”
    -- Warren Buffett
    Nov 1, 2014. 01:56 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting The Gold Selloff Into Perspective [View article]
    Now if Peter Shiff will ever admit he was wrong a few years ago when he claimed gold would reach $5,000/oz , that would be something!
    Oct 31, 2014. 03:31 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boutique investment firm sours on payments sector [View news story]
    The idiot analyst is probably now looking for any 3% dip to upgrade. Classic example of not understanding the big picture!
    Oct 30, 2014. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crown Castle: Activist Could Get Us A Higher Dividend [View article]
    Using the company's press release, it looks like Corvex's analysis was unrealistically bullish as I thought. Compared to Corvex's $5 2015 AFFO, mgmt is guiding to only $4.35 AFFO, although this is probably conservative. Disheartening was mgmt's comment that dividends would grow in line with AFFO which indicated the payout ratio will not be bumped up in medium term.

    Assuming 2016 AFFO of $5.05 (vs. Corvex's $5.60), 75% payout ($3.80 dividend) and 4% yield, that gives a 15 month target of $95. Not a bad return, but nowhere close to Corvex's fantasy $128/share (35% higher).
    Oct 30, 2014. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crown Castle: Activist Could Get Us A Higher Dividend [View article]
    Nice summary, but one point. Corvex believes the shares can reach $100 not by the end of 2015 but in the next few months (after mgmt announces a higher div policy) and $128 by the end of 2015 (15 months).

    I think a more realistic 15 month target is $95 assuming $5.40 2016 AFFO. Mgmt will likely move to a 70-75% payout and the stock should trade at a 4.00-4.25% yield (not Corvex's fantasy 3.5%) with higher interest rates now that the Fed stopped QE.
    Oct 29, 2014. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google misses by $0.18, misses on revenue [View news story]
    I think it's like Visa, it had a nice run, got overbought and has been readjusting to a more realistic valuation. With this correction, I expect GOOG to have good risk-adjusted returns going forward.
    Oct 16, 2014. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boutique investment firm sours on payments sector [View news story]
    I agree. Even assuming slower growth, V and MA are still probably worth about 20x P/E given their wide moats, good economics, strong FCF and a still powerful growth story in the global conversion of cash/checks to credit.
    Oct 16, 2014. 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google downplays spending growth, talks up mobile progress [View news story]
    What do you think normalized FCF is for GOOG as a % of net income?
    Oct 16, 2014. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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