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Korndog

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  • Asset Allocation Vs. Security Selection [View article]
    8202401

    "Just wish I would have known about this earlier in my investing life (lol)."

    Amen to that.
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asset Allocation Vs. Security Selection [View article]
    I believe you are correct, in your observation of Faber's recent results, though there are several model's with some performing better than others. With this in mind, I've taken his work and that of several other authors on S.A. that focus on A.A. and have combined strategies, with two goals in mind. First I know how susceptible I am to failure during draw downs so I attempt to construct my portfolio to minimize their severity, and secondly how to do so with favorable returns. Similar to 8202401's comment, I've done some tweaking and combining that seems to satisfy both of my needs. I don't mind lagging the S&P as long as I win during the draw downs. 
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asset Allocation Vs. Security Selection [View article]
    8202401

    I'm with you on that. Mebane Faber's work is quite impressive and far exceeds my equity selection results. My investing has improved and is more enjoyable and less time consuming since I switched to asset allocation models. My goal is to be as close to mechanical as possible in my investment decisions.
    Mar 24, 2015. 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marc Cohn's GMR (TAA) Strategy Updates And Analyses [View instapost]
    Oops, you're right, the numbers I grabbed were log return numbers, and not yet converted. Need to correct my spread sheet to reflect those returns accurately. Thanks for the double check.
    Feb 18, 2015. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marc Cohn's GMR (TAA) Strategy Updates And Analyses [View instapost]
    Exact same numbers I get across the board including SSO/EDV correlation. At least our more recent numbers agree.
    Feb 18, 2015. 08:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marc Cohn's GMR (TAA) Strategy Updates And Analyses [View instapost]
    Chuck,

    While a bit unusual, not unprecedented in the system's history. Your comment prompted me to go back and look at some of the past selections that would have been somewhat difficult to endure in real time. Here are some of those returns.

    -12.08% May 12'
    -17.54% May 10'
    -11.44% Jan 10'
    -24.16% Jan 09' (a real zinger)

    Additionally many large single digit losses through the years, but amazingly if a person can stick with it, the system does rebound quite remarkably with some equally impressive single month gains. Those 2010 returns were similar to what we experienced recently with the selections and I can't honestly say my confidence would have survived. Knowing the frailty of the human psyche and mine in particular, I really do like the mechanical nature of Marc's system, but must admit I would like to tame some of the swings to better assure my stick with-it-ness. Because of my past experience with technical analysis, I'm reluctant to chase the colored squiggly lines and believe that they can improve this approach. But I also know that one of the greatest hindrance to the truth is believing that you already possess it. So with reluctance, I spent some time this weekend looking at a few indicators that I have a particular fondness for; and there may be some value to there inclusion, just need to study it a bit more. I'm not a fan of overbought and sold indicators, but since this system identifies momentum, maybe something that identifies the strength/weakness of the selection's momentum might be helpful. Time and study hopefully will shed more light on it.
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marc Cohn's GMR (TAA) Strategy Updates And Analyses [View instapost]
    Glad to see you start this instablog so the conversation doesn't fade away. I've enjoyed investigating multiple renditions of this portfolio with mixed success. We were both around to see and feel ILF melt down this past September; that was real fun. Stop loss came in handy on that one, but started me on a search for alternatives. From a pure return basis, one of the better changes I discovered was to replace ILF with IJT. Diversity is lost with two US equity ETF's, but so is the ILF volatility. Curious if you've played around with other combinations successfully?
    Feb 6, 2015. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Do About Poor Future Returns [View article]
    Paul,

    Want to say thanks for the article. Though I've never commented, I have also read and enjoyed many of your writings on your blog Invest for a Living.
    Feb 5, 2015. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Modified GMR System For November: CASH [View instapost]
    All my numbers including correlation, correspond exactly with yours with the exception of EEM (-4.19%). Any chance that is a typo?
    Jan 2, 2015. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tactical Asset Allocation November Update [View article]
    Thanks for the update; and sure do enjoy reading your blog.
    Nov 11, 2014. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Modified GMR System For November: CASH [View instapost]
    ekreyzig - the highest ranking ETF was SSO at 8.88% followed by EDV at 7.83% as of close last trading day of October.
    Nov 3, 2014. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple GMR [View instapost]
    I think you are right on both accounts. The volatility cuts both ways, and sure wasn't much fun this past month. I'm pretty cash heavy right now, so it wasn't horribly painful, but I still don't like loosing. ILF can be a wild ride and may need to be tamed a little even at the expense of some upside.
    Oct 1, 2014. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple GMR [View instapost]
    Thanks for this months update. Do you have any hesitation or timing suggestion about rolling over into the new selection of ILF after it had such a stellar return this past month? EEM did well this past month but Mr. Putin's adventurism seemed to put a damper on it the last few days; even so I was happy with my results. Just struggle each month as to the "best" method of transitioning into the next selection.
    Sep 1, 2014. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Modified GMR Signal For August 2014: EEM [View instapost]
    My big question is how many people rolled right out of EEM and into ILF today? With ILF's recent rebound, I'll be the first to admit that I went to cash today and didn't buy ILF. I know this type of behavior defeats the purpose of a purely mechanical system, but I would prefer at least an intra-day pullback before buying. Won't be the last poor decision I've made if ILF keeps going up and I missed the boat. Guess that's what makes investing so interesting. Everyone enjoy your extended weekend.
    Aug 29, 2014. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple GMR [View instapost]
    Me too, will follow. Have been tracking other GMR articles and discussions and it is a subject I follow with a lot of interest. Thanks!
    Aug 1, 2014. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
23 Comments
3 Likes