Seeking Alpha

djohnsonhot

djohnsonhot
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View djohnsonhot's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Apple Is No Longer A 'Don't Buy' [View article]
    459 is a line of sand...that level must break, pullback and HOLD and I would be considering selling puts below $400.
    Jan 28, 2013. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Whole World Bullish? [View article]
    Price will tell and guesses, VIX levels, complacency, sentiment, projections, earnings - - none of it will tell you more than price.

    So, since we are hitting new highs, let the market breathe a bit and wait for a clear pullback.

    I am not selling SPX puts today until I see some movement to the downside and resistance holding...so far, not.

    Next move, resistance holds, sell CALLS.
    Jan 28, 2013. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    OK, folks, I will add a comment with some real meat!

    Did anyone read about the Israel's "CFO" about to buy shares of AAPL with their foreign reserves?

    Allow me to add that this was announced this week, prior to the crash in AAPL shares!

    I will continue and say that until it is over, and we need real PRICE DISCOVERY for us to know that AAPL has stopped selling off, then it will not be over. There are tons of ways to determine this on a chart. I am incredibly amused that everyone focuses upon AAPL fundamentals and market orientation and new this and that but as investors, PRICE TELLS ALL. COME ON!

    We will know that AAPL has stopped selling off after we see a reversal and that reversal will occur when sucker retail traders (me, although I bought AAPL and sold covered calls well over 28 months ago - - yes, I am a genius on charts)......back to it: WHEN retail trades DUMP their shares to WILLING commercial buyers.

    Remember: there were sucker buyrs at 700 and change and they are still holding AAPL. They are shorting this stinker until they buy back shares, and they buying will occur in perfect coordination with retail "investors" (suckers, by any other name)....who will be dumping under pressure.

    I got an email from a guy last week who had sold AAPL 545 puts---ouch and---and had finally given up the ghost to the tune of $7K...he is a very nice guy and nice guys, who have been holding AAPL since 700 bucks (and change) are being pinched hard on the "gooey sweet" hopes for something new and fresh.

    PRICE TELLS ALL...don't jump in at bottoms, let price TELL you it has bottomed. ACT LIKE A COMMERCIAL trader and look for confirmation and then buy cheap calls.

    You buy cheap calls and puts WHEN YOU CAN, not when you have to!

    Brought to you by someone who has studied the markets for 22+ years full time and knows a thing or two about how to lose money.

    Read O'Neill or something to help you find price.
    Jan 26, 2013. 12:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    I'm beginning to like you.

    :)
    Jan 26, 2013. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Mixed Report Gives Bulls Some Long-Term Hope [View article]
    COME ON PEOPLE, forget the sentiment and details, just learn how to read a chart.

    I have saved charts on AAPL showing these AAPL targets dating back to late last year...we are JUST NOW Hitting them and punching through.

    For AAPL to be long again, it must test higher AND HOLD those longs...this sort of analysis would keep the fundy folks out of trouble....price discovery rules and do not jump in too soon here until AAPL proves it is long again.

    That could take weeks to months to play out...there are plenty of other lower priced picks that are trading at fair value...stop this AAPL focus for a while and put it in "soft focus" and put your attention on beaten down stocks that are very valuable AND show price action that indicates that the smart money (who shorted AAPL a long time ago and yet to be squeezed!) have now closed their shorts.

    Remember, when the turning point begins, price will tell, AAPL will test higher AND HOLD key levels! This is simpleton work and to ignore this is to your detriments....look at the guys above who are buying on the way down...it is just a shame.

    After looking at charts for over 20 years, AAPL is broken until it is no longer broken. The ALGO's run things, not emotionally but on price triggers. This is common knowledge and get on with it.
    Jan 25, 2013. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where's The Inflation? [View article]
    They purposely rigged it at the onset to reduce the Inflation factor on yearly Government pension fund increases.

    I had a neighbor years ago say that he had Pension Inflation protection, fully proud of his service (hmmm?) and his spending power over someone like me who did not have a pension at all.

    My answer to him, which made his eye-brows furrow, was, "take a look at the real inflation [fuel, food--backed out due to volatility-sheesh!] and your pension will never keep up.

    Two days ago, he told me that his pension increases were near zero but their monthly spending on normal items had increased 12% year over year over year.....

    This is what makes this article simply hogwash. The real world disconnect is quite sickening and it is not just for retired folks....think about that family of 4 who take in $50K a year before taxes...they would have been rich in the 60's and they can barely make it now ... they will be forever renters....no equity, no savings.

    Gosh, I am not feeling any better now.
    Jan 25, 2013. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks To Buy, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    C trade must be 35/32.5?
    Jan 25, 2013. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elliott Wave Analysis Of The S & P 500 – New Market Projections [View instapost]
    Thanks for these charts...I found you in a Google search about the holiday effect on Options pricing, believe it or not!
    Jan 17, 2013. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asset Allocation In The Eyes Of The Kelly Strategy [View article]
    Time horizon is the key element. Go back to the depression.

    At this very juncture, we are subjected to "market distortion" variables - - with Government fiddling with rates and money supply - - which distort the averages and thus the entire plan collapses. What this means is that we are not in a free-market any longer and the forces are against normal price discovery....this is what makes this entire market a farce.

    So, the allocation may fail, in effect.
    Jan 15, 2013. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Repoed! How The Fed And Depositors Fund Banks' Big Bets [View article]
    Best article in a year!
    Jan 14, 2013. 02:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Laszlo Birinyi's Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll shows a bearish read of just 14.8%, about the lowest level in a year. The index is created by polling some prominent web bloggers and asking their outlook on the S&P over the coming month. [View news story]
    I absolutely agree with you. All of those are distractions from price and good setups!
    Jan 14, 2013. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks To Buy, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    Is there not a gap fill on KORS right at your $45 strike?
    Jan 13, 2013. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence For Distortion Of The Market Caused By QE3 [View article]
    ...Your final point: ...."The obvious conclusion, therefore, is that levered stocks will get whacked when rates go higher and their interests costs do the same. They will also get whacked, in general, when earning go lower in an economic downturn."

    This will only be true if the majority of such companies have been lured into leveraging their balance sheets with short-term debt. If longer duration instruments were on the whole used, then there will be a more positive impact, in my opinion.

    Think of it this way:

    1. Companies have driven their costs down by closing plants, and firing extra weight...costs decline.

    2. They have refinanced and likely financed their companies with longer-term debt (how often are we near zero?).

    Any comments would be welcomed. Thanks for the article is it absolutely makes on think about the over-leveraged companies and their value versus the price action of their stocks.

    Finally, author: your list of long-term investments (under-leveraged companies) are all within 7 to 10 bucks of their 52 week highs. Does that not make us think, avoid them for now as well?
    Jan 13, 2013. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Official: U.S. November Sales Increased Across The Board [View article]
    I checked out your link, Freddy....good times are over.
    Jan 13, 2013. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flows into equity funds hit $22.2B in the year's first week, according to EPFR, the strongest numbers since September 2007 (not the best time to buy), and the 2nd highest since the data began being compiled in 1996. Some are skeptical it marks the beginning of a "great rotation," instead seeing start-of-the-year factors at work. [View news story]
    Sucker retailers are ALWAYS LATE longs.
    Jan 12, 2013. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
635 Comments
515 Likes