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  • Don't Fret Over The Shrinking PSLV Premium [View article]
    The PSLV premium to NAV is down to 0.98% today, which I believe is at or near an all time low. Could be a good time to buy as I believe this reflects and extremely bearish sentiment in the metal.
    Apr 1, 2013. 11:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Looks Like Lower Levels Will Be Seen [View article]
    I like to look at the PSLV premium to NAV as a contrary indicator of future movements in the metal. Factoring out secondary's which have deflated the premium, there seems to be a coorelation. I saw today that the Sprott silver premium was down to 0.98%, which is the lowest I have seen it (I think the lowest since its inception). Do you view this as a bullish sentiment indicator for the metal, or is this not something you pay attention to? Thanks!
    Apr 1, 2013. 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: Is This The Final Move Lower? [View article]
    Silver hammered again today. It is pretty amazing when you look at the US mint webpage to see close to 15 million ounces of US Eagles have been sold already to the public in 2013. This is roughly 6% of the worlds silver production (roughly 1 billion ounces/year) in one coin from one mint, yet SLV continues to slide as if demand were falling. Although no way to prove it, it seem clear that the paper games of the Fed/JPM are going to keep SLV going down, perhaps even hitting the authors target price of $22/$24.. I think the only way to play this (if you believe in buying silver for wealth preservation as I do) is to short the paper and use profits to buy the physical.
    Apr 1, 2013. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo: Could It Be Worth $2 Billion? [View article]
    Jim, any thoughts on the MSFT "settlement" talks with VRNG?
    Mar 29, 2013. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atossa Genetics: My Top Biotech Idea For 2013 [View article]
    Biotech Breakthroughs, have you or the company you are affiliated with been compensated in any way by the companies you have highlighted (CBMX/ATOS/IGC/CALI, etc.)?
    Mar 28, 2013. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Still A Buy Even Though Amazon And Google Have Better Products [View article]
    I remember when everyone was saying Cisco Systems would be the first trillion dollar company in 1999. Well, it got about half way there and today it has a market cap of $112 billion. Times change and certain technologies become less important over time. Although today it seems nearly impossilbe to believe, Apples technology in another 5 or 10 years may become less important to the average person (just as it was hard to believe CSCO's products would be in 1999) which will cause lower margins and growth rates in the future..

    AAPL's valuation was (a few months ago) running into the law of large numbers. World GDP was $70 trillion last year. A trillion dollar AAPL market cap would mean that its value was 1.4% (roughly) of the world GDP. There simply isnt enough money in the world to justify that valuation in a product that is optional to most people (unlike food, gasoline, etc) For example, the USA is the wealthiest country in the world, and the mean income is roughly $60K. 1.4% of $60K is about $1000. Is the average American going to buy $1000 in Apple products each year in the future to justify this valuation? This is just the USA, and I am not even including the rest of the world, most of which is signficantly poorer. Most humans cannot even afford an AAPL product, which implies a greater burden on the richer parts of the world to buy AAPL products to justify the trillion dollar valuation.

    So, a company this large relative to GDP cannot grow 20% for very long, and a single digit p/e is appropriate. Im not saying that AAPL is overvalued here at $440 (I thnk it is close to a buy too), but no way it deserves a trillion dollar valuation.
    Jan 28, 2013. 01:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AutoZone: Double Or Nothing Always Leads To Nothing [View article];range=my;compare=;ind...
    Im not a technical analyst, but from this LT chart above, it looks like this amazing run since late 2009 is ending and we may be rolling over as we recently have penetrated some key resistance in the $345-$350 area.

    Fundamentally, I think this one of the most bizarre situations I have ever seen. Accounts Payable is LESS than AR, cash, and inventory combined? Also, we have the company using debt to buy up shares, and then insiders unloading shares onto the public. (According to the insider transactions: insiders have dumped $100 million onto the market in just the last 6 months, with no purchases.) I suppose if AZO can continue to grow revenues at a good clip for a long time, they will be ok, but if interest rates back up or revenues slow, this could potentially be a house of cards that comes crashing down. Time will tell.
    Jan 9, 2013. 07:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons I Am in TBT and Cash Now [View article]
    Every once in a while I like to come back to his article and have a good laugh.

    On 1/23/11 the author wrote:
    "A year early, but TBT should soar with treasury bond yields in 2012...:

    On 1/23/12 the author wrote:
    "TBT has finally bottomed..."

    Then we look at reality:;range=2y;compare=;ind...

    A year and half after the article was written, TBT is down close to 60%, and I would imagine will go much lower. The author never realized (perhaps he does now) that the T-bond market is not a "market". Interest rates are now controlled by the Fed, and it is in the Fed's interests to keep rates as close to zero as possible. This thing decays for perhaps several more years and even when the Bond market blows up, it may be too late to even get a fraction of your money back as the price of TBT will be so low by then.
    Nov 13, 2012. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons I Am in TBT and Cash Now [View article]
    Yes, but the author failed to realize the US bond market is different than Spains's or Greece's. We have a Fed that was, and will continue to, artifically suppress rates indefinitely because they have a unique power to print the (present) worlds reserve currency. Actually, they have to keep rates suppressed because if they rise to normal levels, we are going to have a derivatives debt bomb go off and/or a budget deficit spiraling even more out of control. Negative real rates do not fundamentally makes sense, but they are here to stay for a long time until the tipping point when the whole system blows up. But, by that time, who knows, TBT may be at 5 and it really wont matter because you bought (when this article was written) at 36+. You will never get your inflation adjusted money back because of the decay.
    Jul 25, 2012. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons I Am in TBT and Cash Now [View article]
    Once again ANOTHER new all time low. As I write TBT is down almost 62% from the time this article was written. I guess we should just keep averaging down, or can the author finally just admit what a terrible call this was?
    Jul 24, 2012. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons I Am in TBT and Cash Now [View article]
    Yet another new all time low for TBT. TBT now down over 60% from the date this article was written, as the 10 year yield craters even further.
    Jul 12, 2012. 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Giant Interactive: The Cheapest Stock in China [View article]
    I am not defending this company or James, as I would not invest in it. However, you should note that since this article was written, GA has paid out approximately $3.50/share in cash dividends (they had a one time $3/share dividend in 2011, and two other smaller payouts). So, the stock has had a nice return, if you include dividends, since this article was written.
    Jun 18, 2012. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons I Am in TBT and Cash Now [View article]
    Good point. Ive been saying that also for a while. Going long these ETF's for the "long term" (i.e years) usually ends bad because of the decay. Shorting TLT is much better if you are taking a longer term perspective. I think TBT has become a long term buy for the author because it has gone down 60% since his article was written, and the only way to save face is to say you are averaging down and in it for the long term. Most people in 5 years will have forgotten about this article by then, regardless of how low TBT is, so it wont really matter by then how bad the call was in April of 2011.
    Jun 5, 2012. 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons I Am in TBT and Cash Now [View article]
    Ok, TBT is now down over 57% (FIFTY SEVEN PERCENT) since this article was written. TBT would have to go up 134% just to break even. The good news is the 10 year, at 1.63%, cant go below 0%. Or maybe it could??? The Germans are selling 2 year notes at 0%, so are negative rates next?

    This is so like the late 90's intenet bubble or mid 2000's housing bubble. It is going to be so ugly, but it may just get even crazier before the bond market bursts. Im waiting for some sort of interest rate crash climax, and then will go short TLT, but I may be waiting along time with this massive bond market manipulation by the Fed, and TBT could easily go to single digits before then.
    May 30, 2012. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons I Am in TBT and Cash Now [View article]
    Ouch. The cash position would have been good, but TBT is down over 55% since the writing of this article. The money printing is not keeping up with credit deleveraging (private credit deleveraging that is), which is causing asset prices to decline, and investors continue to run into the "safety" of bonds. There is going to be a climactic event at some point in the bond market as there is simply no way (under this monetary system, which introduces money into the system through debt) to get out of the problem with a US government bankruptcy or by inflating the debt away. But until this climactic event, TBT may go much much lower before it eventually skyrockets, as default or hyperinflation is inevitable. I think it would be better to scale into a short TLT position over the coming months/years to take advantage of it, to avoid the decay in TBT.
    May 17, 2012. 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment