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  • Four Stocks That Can Enhance Your Portfolio [View article]
    My opinion as to why AAPL will not reach $1000 in less than three years:

    World GDP is now about $60 trillion. If we have average growth over the next three years, GDP will be about $65 trillion. If you are saying AAPL will reach $1000, it will have a market cap of approximately $1 trillion. So, at this point AAPL's market cap will make up about 1.5% of world GDP. I think that is excessive.

    Looking at it this way, the median income in the US will be about $60K in 2014. 1.5% of $60K is about $1000. Do you think the average American, who is making $60K, will be spending $1000, on AAPL products in 2014? I think that is highly unlikely.

    But even if it were so in America, that is absolutely NOT the case around the world. 1/3 of the world lives in poverty, and they could not save enough in their entire lives to buy an iphone or ipad. The majority of people on this planet cannot afford an AAPL products, and they do not now, nor will they in the future be able to spend 1.5% of their income on AAPL products. So, the % of money that is spent by the other people on the planet who can afford AAPL products, has to be much higher than 1.5% of their income - unlikely.

    I do think AAPL is a good stock, and I would buy it here, but there are limits to its growth.
    Jan 7, 2011. 11:10 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macro Call of the Year: Buy Chinese Micro Caps [View article]
    Richard, I think BEA has done more analysis on CCME, by far, than you, or anyone else on this particular Seeking Alpha comment board. Look at BEA's post on December 26 @ 6:41pm. After reading this, you may or may not agree with his analysis, but you cannot claim that did not "post specific data to back up (his) claim". You claim that he says "everyone is a fraud because I say so" is obviously an incorrect statement, based on his clear thinking, logical analysis in this same post, and in many other posts that he has made. His analysis is persuasive (I am an MBA as well and understand financial analysis) and more detailed than I have seen by any Wall Street analyst covering CCME, or any poster on Seeking Alpha. Yes, he insults other posters, but please name one "false allegation" that he has made.

    I am neither long nor short CCME, or any other Chinese stock. I used to have long positions in several low p/e Chinese stocks, but the more I looked at these companies, the more I saw the potentional for fraud. Certainly we have seen some of them exposed already (i.e RINO), and I think many more will be exposed in the future.

    Also, regarding anonymity, I would predict 90% of the people on Seeking Alpha would not be on Seeking Alpha, if one have to give their true identity. That would do no one any good, and would certinaly decrease the amount of freely flowing ideas that one can find on this website.

    Jan 5, 2011. 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xoma: Not Encouraged by All the Hoopla [View article]
    Hey mane, does your prediction that we will see $2.40 before $8 still hold?
    Jan 4, 2011. 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xoma: Not Encouraged by All the Hoopla [View article]
    Ouch! Glad I didnt pay attention to Ed Stevenson and stayed long in XOMA. Up huge today on 48 million shares. I think it is financially irresponsible to be short this stock now or to recommend shorting.
    Jan 4, 2011. 08:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macro Call of the Year: Buy Chinese Micro Caps [View article]
    Amazing that the CFO, who has a base salary of $79K, can buy $1.5 million in stock on the open market. If you dont believe the SEC filings, you dont believe them, including the ones that relate to insider purchases.
    Dec 29, 2010. 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macro Call of the Year: Buy Chinese Micro Caps [View article]
    I think BEA is making a very good case for fraud here. I will point out that CCME will be paying out 7 million "earn out" shares in 2011 and 7 million "earn out" shares in 2012 to insiders (i.e. to the CEO Cheng who already owns about 35% of the company) if earnings numbers are hit. I would say I am about 99.999% sure those targets will be hit, whether they have any real earnings or not. The 14 million earn out shares represent $210 million at the current stock price. So, CHENG WILL BE PAYING HIMSELF $210 million in stock for 2 years of performance. For what? Even if the earnings were real (which I dont believe they are), they are projected to make about this same amount in profit in 2010 and 2011. He is issuing an amount of stock to himself in two years that is about what CCME will earn in profit for those two years (assuming investors dont catch on, and the $15 price holds).

    Based on this, would one think this is a shareholder friendly company?

    Cheng could just sell a million of his newly issued shares onto the open market, collect the cash, and easily cover the dividend (of 5-10% of "profits") to investors) He could easily repeat this process (of issuing himself earn out shares, selling those shares and collecting cash, and paying a dividend) for a very long time. Buyers beware.

    Dec 29, 2010. 09:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Latest Developments in the Pharmathene-SIGA Case Point to a Strong Buy for PIP [View article]
    Love the link. The silent majority appreciates the logical, well reasoned analysis that you always give. The angry folks just write more - perhaps to release their anger. Although there is risk in every investment, you make a compelling case as to why PIP may go much higher.
    Nov 30, 2010. 05:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment