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  • Petrobras gets another bearish recommendation [View news story]
    Dear Mr. Bonanza, I see we did not change a bit as a country, meaning we are the country of the future and so are our companies......PBR pre salt production costs is over $40/barrel do not forget that. regarding Vale, if India becomes the new China of the next decade everything will be flowers. it is always good to dream about a brighter future the only problem it may be out of reach
    Oct 1, 2015. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras says Carcara oil well extends subsalt discovery [View news story]
    PBR is an opportunity of a life time........hopefully you are are young enough...!!! Sometimes to make fun of a situation is the only way out. Even Gazpron can do better
    Sep 29, 2015. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Happy Ending? My Vale Journey [View article]
    I think you have paid the price for being stubborn and blind regarding evolution of certain key events, It is not the theory that is wrong but our judgement about reality.....Welcome to the club.....keep walking
    Sep 26, 2015. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil Battling To Hold Itself Together - Economically And Politically [View article]
    Wait for the president impeachment coming soon and then buy everything else but PBR and Vale
    To compare Brazil with Greece is a total lack of real knowledge of both countries. There are entire market sectors, businesses and regions of the country that are doing well despite all the noise and government mismanagement.
    Whenever there is "fear" and lack of confidence there are "overshooting" of currencies and bad expectations. We are far from seeing blood in the streets but still some way to go before hitting the bottom as problem is political, current government is Marxist minded and because of that do not do obvious things that would bring back confidence and growth....!!!
    Sep 24, 2015. 10:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras - Avoid Due To Both Macro And Company-Specific Headwinds [View article]
    There is a misconception about oil price and PBR impact. PBR predominantly produces in Brazil and sells downstream products to the local markets in local currency. So the only way to improve profitability is to increase local fuel prices, which is not going to happen, There is 15% of PBR business that is dependent on oil global prices, because of two factors; 1) Brazilian oil is mostly heavy and refineries can´t process all of that, the solution is to export some to import light oil. 2) refineries total capacity (all owned by PBR) is not enough for gasoline and diesel demand needs (between 10 to 15% plus), so here again PBR exports heavy oil to bring downstream products. The more oil prices go up the worst is for PBR... Last thing about 75% of the loans are dollar or Euro denominated, R$ was depreciated in 60% in the last 12 months so PBR needs to bring more reais to pay for the loans interest and that did not happen, on the contrary PBR assumed more debt in the last 6 months. Conclusion shares may go up because of sheer speculation but won´t stay there for obvious reasons. To fix PBR we need a less Marxist government, new CEO and directors not aligned with the cause that think and act in favor of the company...Meaning next government that will be in place in Jan 2019 or before if the coming impeachment allegations are accepted by 2/3 of the congress in the next 60 days. Sorry I would like to have a more favorable opinion about a company that was relatively well run for many years and still is technically quite good....!!!
    Sep 21, 2015. 10:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil Is Still Far From Cheap But Some Companies Should Go On A Watch List [View article]
    Good article but some of your figures need an update....!!! Contraction for this year expected to be between 2,8 - 3,0%, next year perhaps -0,8%. Political situation is so much unstable that we may see an impeachment process as far as mid october. All other indicators are moving down hill, including super markets, power consumption, car & trucks production, employment level....just name it, except for FX approaching 4.00 R$/USD and Fed rate at 14.25/year
    As you said, some companies are really good ones but definitively expensive considering the situation country is going through. If we do not have an impeachment, forget Brazil till 2018, if we have after initial turmoil, with confidence back and credibility we may start growing again by the second half of 2016.
    Sep 21, 2015. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Risks Currently Affecting Vale [View article]
    Vale will have to go through the storm center in the next 12-18 months and then become attractive again. Q3 and Q4 results won´t be good as average sales price will still be lower than previous quarters, but to be partially offset by recent volume gains and cost reductions. On the other hand wages are up 9% this year and wil be another 8% next year (mandatory infation correction) to be offset by price increases in the future, whenever that happens. All in all ebtida of $2.2m by quarter is not enough for dividends, capex needs and interest on debt....!!!
    Sep 17, 2015. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras Will Likely Crumble Under $90B In Dollar-Denominated Debt [View article]
    I am 100% with you.
    Sep 17, 2015. 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras Will Likely Crumble Under $90B In Dollar-Denominated Debt [View article]
    How can you be so naive? New governance appointed 6 months ago is already falling apart, chairman of the board is gone already, others should follow. Internal resistance to cost cutting and divestments is huge, just it won´t happen. PBR is dominated by CUT (union) allied to the government/labour party. Announced production growth curve for 2016 and beyond it won´t happen, as contract for 19 drilling platforms so far is back under discussion instead of being manufactured as announced two years ago. PBR ebitda has been averaging $ 23 billion/year, capex announced for next 4 years require $ 28 billion/year after being reduced in 40%. PBR lost investment grade now is only BB. PBR already pays $ 7 billion a year in interest. As you can see nothing is working....!!!
    Sep 17, 2015. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Bank Of America Deserve A 52-Week Low? [View article]
    People from Stone Fox: If you compare BofA against Wells Fargo going area of business by area of business, what are the main differences that make WFC far more valuable? How close to WFC could BAC get in the medium term?
    Aug 26, 2015. 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Petrobras basins: One safe but fading, one a costly bet [View news story]
    Keep dreaming. There is no way parts of PBR will be "sold" to a private partner. The brazilian government until 2018 is in the hands of socialists (a nice way to describe marxism) and by all means against any kind od privatization. Second to that the union that prevails in PBR is C.U.T fully supportive of government actions. PBR will not recover before there is a government change. After the $ 220 billion that was spent in the last 5 years mostly in exploration and for future production, PBR announced that only by 2018 they will be producing 2,8 million barrels a day (today is 2,5/2,6), it is just like to be insulted besides incompetence and bribing....
    Aug 17, 2015. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras swirls lower after Q2 earnings miss estimates [View news story]
    Dear HerrX
    The worst of PBR is not over yet. There is more to surface, not even the 3% oil output growth announced 2 months ago is a sure thing, not even the cost reduction program and the divesture program are going to be timely executed, not a chance that fuel prices wil be increased in the coming months so long term means 5+ years.....I hope you are a very patient guy, by the way with the current political crises Fx should be at 4,00 by year end....!!!! meaning stock price (ADR) will be even lower by then.
    Aug 7, 2015. 04:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale: Reasons To Buy The Drop [View article]
    I believe your timing is totally caput. China is decelerating, ore prices are not up, they are flat at best and still much lower same period, meaning Vale´s profitability will still be lower, capacity is higher than demand, higher cost suppliers are still around and large suppliers keep adding capacity now and in the next 18 months etc etc. Vale is a good company but for H1 of 2017 on, not before
    Aug 5, 2015. 01:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale hits decade lows as Brazil stock rout worsens [View news story]
    Reality always prevails, Vale is a good company but timing is worst possible and PBR can not be trusted, not technically because they are quite good, but management keep making commitments that they can´t other words they lie consistently always....!!!
    Jul 24, 2015. 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Still Like Turquoise Hill Resources Even In The Commodity Bear Market [View article]
    I love TRQ as well, I do not know if it is because I paid $ 6.10/share so we have to stick together for a long time until your and my dreams of rewards come through. Anyway in the meantime they could pay some dividends just to make the wait a little more "bearable".
    Jokes apart your analysis is correct.
    Jul 24, 2015. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment