Seeking Alpha

aparo201@google.com

aparo201@google.com
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View aparo201@google.com's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • iPhone 5S has fingerprint sensor, better camera; DoCoMo deal confirmed [View news story]
    first 64 bit smartphone IS innovation.

    if you don't get that, you don't know what you are talking about. The 5S can run programs that cannot run on any other smartphone. think of it as IQ. 5S has higher IQ and can handle higher level programming that 32 bit phones can't cause they are too dumb. it can handle things no other smartphone will come close to (until they copy it of course).

    that plus fingerprint sensor plus iOS7 make this an innovative phone. what more do you want?? a larger screen? that would be welcome by me, but it's not innovation.

    haters gonna hate no matter what. anyone who knows tech knows this is game changing innovation, and this will be explained over the next few weeks to average consumer and will be made apparent when apps/games with better everything turn up on the 5S.

    stock sold because iPhone 5C pricing was too high, just like they said about iPad Mini at $329. it has run up a lot and pullback was overdue.
    Sep 10, 2013. 04:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Vs. Apple: Death By A Thousand Paper Cuts [View article]
    Ben, the answer to your question is easy: because you like the hardware and UI of Apple/iOS but want some of those Google features. And Google isn't a competitor to the iPhone. Google offers a competing OS free to Apple competitors like Samsung, but on the features and apps. mentioned in the article it isn't competing with Apple.

    I don't think most would think of Apple as the middleman, after all there is the hardware and more the OS and these are fundamental.

    most consumers don't know or care who makes the apps. They know Apple makes the iPhone and the iPhone comes with certain features/apps and there are many thousands that are not included but can be downloaded.

    you used Google Drive but there's also Dropbox and many other similar apps, which goes to my point that most people couldn't care less about whether of the 5 or however many apps that Google and Apple both make Google is wining 5 to 3, or whatever.

    the author would have a better point if the Google apps/features were exclusive to Android, but they are not, so those good features inures to Apple's benefit.
    May 6, 2013. 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Vs. Apple: Death By A Thousand Paper Cuts [View article]
    Even if Google is winning the features battle, why is this relevant to investing when those features are included in iOS devices??

    And you exaggerate on a number of points. the study you cite concludes that Google wins by a bit but says it's subjective and it could easily be interpreted as a toss-up (his conclusion). I found iCloud to work well for all I use it. is it perfect? no. but neither is anything Google has ever done. i used Google Maps this W/E and it asked me to get off the highway for 100 meters and back again, then guided me half a mile from my real destination. And neither Siri nor Maps are a "failure" as you say.

    Apple clearly wins the apps battle yet you say google wins it because there are more google apps on IOS then the other wa around. Apple has more and better working apps. Fact is I would guess 95% of the Apps used on both iOS and Android are not made by Google or Apple.

    software features are a good way for Apple to squeeze some profits from search and ads. But this is a tiny part of its business, whereas Google depends on it. Apple makes money by selling devices and iTunes. the more features are available on its devices -- its own or others' -- the better. The Google features are not exclusive and therefore don't matter to the real issue.

    Yahoo is not a good comparison because Yahoo and Google were/are direct competitors. Google and Apple aren't. Google provides operating software used by Apple's direct competitors but on the feature side it makes most, and all the good ones, available on both iOS and Android devices.
    May 6, 2013. 03:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shame On You, Apple [View article]
    Apple continues to invest billions in R&D and its business. Throwing money into things just because it's there is stupid.

    And there's no indication that Jobs would never have done a buyback. that he didn't want one in 2010, when Apple's cash was less than half what it is today, does not inform the conversation.

    And what does Romney have to do with it? his issues were issues because he was running for President, campaigning on jobs when he had a history of off-shoring. Apple isn't running for office. it's a for-profit corporation.

    And the pipeline isn't dry just because it doesn't flow at the rate you want it to. Did you know Apple was going to introduce the iPod before it did? How about the iPhone? Surely you saw the iPad coming months before it was announced?

    You didn't? What then makes you think you have any basis to voice an opinion on what is or isn't in the pipeline now? You don't know. Tim Cook does. And he and the BOD feels comfortable enough in that pipeline to give away $100B to shareholders. To me that says a lot.
    May 1, 2013. 12:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Investors Are Missing The Big Picture [View article]
    market share does not equal money. the only companies making money on smartphones are Apple and Samsung. no one thinks Apple will have majority share globally. that's not the investment thesis.

    the iPhone 5 is a great phone. people are buying older versions because it doesn't look much different and isn't leaps and bounds above what the 4 and 4s were. i think that's what Apple forgot and will hopefully address.

    i don't know what the 5S will be. neither do you. so many rumors. 3 sizes, 2 sizes. fingerprint scanner. colors. who knows? i suspect (speculate) that the delay in launch may be due to Apple realizing they need to really wow here and whatever they may have had planned was not enough. and the ip5 is the best selling single smartphone in the world, so lets not overstate the negative.

    also, the $60b buyback and dividend increase is a strong signal from management. management isn't giving away $100B in 2 years unless it knows something we don't about the future.

    if the story continues to deteriorate I will sell at a loss and move on. what can i say? If you want capital appreciation you need to take risks, which means being wrong and losing money.
    Apr 25, 2013. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Investors Are Missing The Big Picture [View article]
    what actual numbers do you have to show that worldwide sales are imploding??

    iPhone sales grew 8.2% in china. I understand that market share is a problem, but that's because much of the growth in developing markets is at the low end where Apple has CHOSEN, so far, not to compete. Samsung isn't selling hundreds of milions of S3s in china, it sells the Galaxy Y series that costs $100. that's the vast majority of its sales, s,all cheap models not even available in the U.S. that's the main problem for Apple in China, price. most if not all of the ones that can afford a high end phone have one already and the ones who are getting one now will get a cheap one.

    last year was an anomaly with 47% margins. no way apple could have had enough unit growth to offset that when it returns to normalized 36-37%. it has bad comps. so question: what happens next year when Apple has new products out and the comp is no longer 2012 but 2013, and 2013 shows, as you say, terrible earnings? apple will show strong growth again, that's what. you have to look at it strategically.

    I said i agree that it will have a bad couple of quarters and the stock may fall. I got in at 426. i own the stock, not options. i don't care if it goes to 350. i am confident it he next few years apple will go above 426, probably a lot above 426. while i wait for that, i will get a 3% cash dividend. i've been investing for a long time and timing the markets to a fine point doesn't work, at least not for me. to me apple represents a good risk reward now. there is certainly risk, that's why the stock is at 400 from 700. but with new products definitely coming out in fall and early next year plus the largest buyback in history, i'm willing to buy and hold, and i will not lose sleep if it falls to 350.
    Apr 25, 2013. 11:25 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Earnings Projections Continue To Irritate Wall Street [View article]
    analysts get paid to come up with numbers different than management.

    usually this means analysts come in higher, especially for Apple.
    by not giving earnings estimates, Apple is denying anlaysts a target to shoot above. This way, Apple is able to see what the estimates are and use the buyback to meet it. that's why it's doing it. it got sick of having record quarters but seeing the stock fall because analysts are bad at their jobs.

    So whether you are right that analysts will not be able to predict well, the benefit is likely to Apple shareholders.
    Apr 25, 2013. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Investors Are Missing The Big Picture [View article]
    Why would you, or anyone, back out Verizon and AT&T? because it doesn't support your theory?

    Stock isn't going lower, not by much and not for long. Apple has a quarter or two problem, but it's not nearly as fatal as the naysayers think. iPhoen owners overwhelmingly want iphones again.

    It's also telling that so many are buying iPhone 4 with a small screen and 3 year old specs even with dozens of Android models in the 4.5+ inch category. While this is bad for revenue mix it speaks volume about brand strength.

    Smart consumers know that tossing together specs and features does not make a good phone anymore than throwing of good actors into a bad script and spending money on special effects makes for a great film.

    Many of the S4 reviews say the phone has great specs but the whole is less than the sum of those parts. it's a too-complex phone with competing, redundant features, and the gee-whiz features like eye scrolling and hover simply don't work well in the real world.

    Apple will have a couple of bad quarters, i agree, but to think this will continue into the indefinite future is much too pessimistic. Apple management gets it, competition has improved. it got caught flat footed and will have a couple of "bad" quarters.

    In the fall, after most who really wanted a Samsung or HTC got one, Apple will release new iPhone which will be in very high demand. i would rather Apple have a fresh iPhone in the holiday quarter than six months before.
    Apr 25, 2013. 10:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
    if you've bought every single iPhone, you don't know how good you have it.

    I am an Android to iPhone convert and can tell you that the iPhone is just better, even though my Droid X had better specs than the iPhone i replaced it with and was fine overall. The iPhone was much better. i use it much more for many more things, even though they tell me Android is more flexible and can do more. There's a reason iPhones keep winning customer satisfaction awards. If Samsung and HTC are better, why aren't their customers more satisfied?

    from an investment perspective, just because you want to switch means nothing. for every one like you there are 3 Android users that want to switch. Android phones don't hold up well, after two years, many want to try iPhone.
    Apr 19, 2013. 04:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
    yes, definitely time to bail. if you've held this long, the fact that a supplier took a $20 million charge because a customer switched components is a clear signal that Apple is doomed long term.

    Selling now after 40% selloff with a company with 140B in cash and no debt, the highest customer satisfaction ratings in the world, growing sales (see verizon, 25% Y-O-Y), in a market that's going to grow strong for a decade, is a great idea.

    That's how smart investors make money, by looking at a couple of pokey quarters (that netted tens of bilions of cash) and extrapolating that inexorably into the future, ignoring brand strength, cash flow, actual sales, usage data. Whatever you do don't look at the balance sheet or any valuation metrics.

    And don't forget panicking over competition, that is also an essential ingredient of stock market success.
    Apr 19, 2013. 12:49 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -2.1%) roundup: 1) As Verizon's Q1 iPhone sales get dissected, critics are noting the 35% Q/Q drop in sales from Q4 is bigger than the 24% drop seen last year. Others think Verizon's remarks about wanting to lower subsidies bodes poorly, though Apple has more leverage here than most Android OEMs. 2) Digitimes reports Apple recently stopped placing Mac component orders to digest inventories, and (in a break from convention) hasn't provided a Q2 shipment forecast. 3) The latest from the iRumor mill: A picture said to show the low-cost iPhone's plastic case, and a report the 5th-gen iPad will be 25% lighter and 15% thinner[View news story]
    because Apple is a strong consumer brand, the strongest in the world in fact. it has legions of fans.

    it's more like Nike, McD or Coke, companies whose businesses face lots of competition but thrive because of brand strength. Why does McD dominate when Burger King has the same stuff? Why do people buy Coke instead of other sugar water? Why do people pay $200 for this year's Nike sneaker, when New Balance offers the same thing for less? Why do people pay more for Starbucks when you can get cheaper good coffee at Dunkin?

    Sony, MSFT, BBRY, NOK, were all successful in their heyday but none had he brand strength and loyalty that Apple does. Did consumers really like Microsoft? No, they used their products because their computers came with them. did anyone love their BB's? people used them because they got them free from work and because they had to. i hated my BB and got rid of it first chance i got, even though i used it constantly for years.

    Nokia and Sony were liked by consumers, but neither was as integrated and hit as many important facets of people's lives as Apple. their products had zero stickiness. And they failed to innovate. Apples innovation time has not expired yet, their history is coming out with a real innovative product on average of 4.5 years. it's only been 3.

    the iPhone has the highest customer satisfaction ratings of any smartphone, by far and consistently. that means people aren't going to dump their iphone for a competing product with 5 more pixels per inch. want proof? Verizon sold 25% more iPhones this quarter than last year's quarter. half of those were iPhone 4s. this may be an issue for revenue mix, sure, but long term it demonstrates brand strength because it shows people want an iPhone, even last generation ones with tiny 3.5 inch screens and worse specs than dozens of competing Android devices.

    People are freaking out over a couple of pokey quarters, as if Apple can't address any of its so-called issues, the biggest of which is lack of a larger phone. this is easily addressed. Apple has more competition now, sure, and that's risky, but this is why the stock fell from 700. the question now is is it a good risk reward at 390? most would objectively say yes.
    Apr 19, 2013. 10:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Boeing Stumble: Was Outsourcing Innovation Part Of The Problem? Part I [View article]
    Apple like most end user consumer electronic companies, outsource the vast majority of their hardware components. always have.

    Apple maps was a screw up. period. speculating about this to root out some more meaningful underlying dynamic that may say something about the future is silly.

    The main disappointment with iPhone 5 was its size. it's the smallest flagship phone out there. people wanted something different and were disappointed to see Apple sticking to the small phone format. even so it sold more than any other smartphone.

    If iPhone 5 had been 4.7 inches, no one would care about maps.

    as for the S4, it will likely sell very well. it's a new iteration of a popular phone. when the new iphone comes out, it will sell more than the S4. same as last year with s3.

    people want new. Samsung gives them new in the spring, Apple in the fall, and sales spike and fall accordingly. it's not rocket science, really.
    Apr 16, 2013. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Boeing Stumble: Was Outsourcing Innovation Part Of The Problem? Part I [View article]
    correction, Samsung is being investigated for planting fake reviews of HTC products, but same difference. if it's doing it for one, it's doing it for others.
    Apr 16, 2013. 10:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Boeing Stumble: Was Outsourcing Innovation Part Of The Problem? Part I [View article]
    This is a tiny part of the problem. the main problem is incessant and negative media coverage that is unfair and biased, coupled with massive marketing by Samsung.

    When Australian police warned that Apple's maps put people in danger by directing them to a remote area it received wide international coverage. A few days later the police issued an identical warning for Google Maps. hardly anyone covered it.

    Look at the following recent news item; Samsung is being investigated in Taiwan for planting fake reviews of Apple products, something that was apparent to many lay people just reading transparently coached reviews in the U.S. , yet the story has received remarkably little coverage.

    http://bbc.in/1199zgo
    Apr 16, 2013. 10:21 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Floundering And The Stock Price Is Down [View article]
    I don't know it, but the inference is compelling. If Apple tells people a larger phone is coming, people will stop buying the current one. It's not going to come out and say that a larger phone has advantages until it has one to sell.

    last time Tim Cook spoke about it he defended the size and said that "we have gotten the size right".

    but this is classic corporate speak. it is technically true. The iPhone is the best selling phone in the world, so how can anyone say they didn't get it right? At the same he's not representing that it will not make a larger iPhone. I have never heard anyone from Apple say that it will not make a larger phone. Defending the merits of a 4 inch phone (as in the thumb ad) is not the same as saying it will never make a bigger one. and remembe Apple did the same thing with the 3.5 inch screen. it said that was the ideal size. then it came out with a 4 inch screen.

    with the iPad mini Apple showed it is more willing to listen to the market than it was when Jobs was around. i think they understand the competitive position Apple is in now and that it is stupid to lose business to rivals just because of screen size. it's not as if Apple is being called upon to make an inferior product.

    .
    Apr 15, 2013. 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
153 Comments
356 Likes