A Solar Stock Investment Plan For 2012 [View article]
I just took my 45% profit on pwer (sold it when the buyout was announced) and will soon close out my >2x gain on spwr. How'd your short positions on these two companies work out for you pvc guy?
Hope you did well on pwer, Tom! I sold the morning after the buyout announcement. Net 45% gain in two years, if I include the profit from selling calls.
Congress may have broken up for the elections, but Senate leaders from both sides are coalescing around a three-step deal to avert the "fiscal cliff" and reduce the deficit. The plan includes raising revenue through revamping the tax code, savings from Medicare and social security, and cuts to federal programs. However, the sides remain far apart on the details, while House Republicans are not involved in the talks. [View news story]
Are you joking? The t-frosh in the House just got done voting for a $606 billion spending-spree in July. Republicans have always been the biggest spenders and the t-frosh are no different.
"Bernanke's job security dependent on the reelection of President Obama"
This is beyond silly. Bernanke is a world renowned economist. His reputation was cemented during the onset of the financial meltdown when he, and he alone, remained calm in the midst of crisis. One thing Bernanke doesn't need is help getting or keeping a job. He can get a job anytime he likes -- one that pays far better and has far less stress than the one he has now.
Republican House Speaker John Boehner says he’s not sure Congress and President Obama can reach a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. “I’m not confident at all,” Boehner quips. It may just be electioneering by the Republicans to keep the heat on the President going into October, but it's risky banter with a resolution already priced into the markets - like we have right now. [View news story]
The only reason we have this fiscal cliff thing at all is because Boehner's t-frosh in the House took the U.S credit hostage under the pretense that the only thing that mattered was to hack away at the deficit. Well guess what..what you get from doing that is the fiscal cliff. Boehner and his house party have only themselves to thank for this one.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index:+1.7 to 92.9, vs. consensus of 91.5, 91.2 in July. The employment indicators and capital outlays and expectations for business conditions improved substantially. The percent of owners viewing the current period as a bad time to expand due to political uncertainty reached a new record high of 22%. [View news story]
An interesting statistic from this report: "Forty-nine (49) percent of the owners hired or tried to hire in the last three months and 37% reported few or no qualified applicants for open positions."
Maybe instead of asking "where are the jobs" we should be asking "where is the job training".
After a 72% Y/Y rise in the XHB, the housing recovery rates the cover at Barron's. "We're in the early stages," says Lennar (LEN) President Rick Beckwith. The industry could triple in size to 1.8M housing starts in the next 3-4 years, says Ivy Zelman, who thinks Lennar could earn $5.30/share in FY15 vs. $0.48 last year. A more speculative play is Beazer (BZH), which isn't yet profitable, but has eased short-term liquidity fears with recent capital raises. [View news story]
azblackbird, as i understand it, the idea is for Fannie to auction off that LLC as a way of doing a bulk sale of their inventory. I think the transfer just means that they're moving inventory into the LLC so that it can be included in the auction.
After a 72% Y/Y rise in the XHB, the housing recovery rates the cover at Barron's. "We're in the early stages," says Lennar (LEN) President Rick Beckwith. The industry could triple in size to 1.8M housing starts in the next 3-4 years, says Ivy Zelman, who thinks Lennar could earn $5.30/share in FY15 vs. $0.48 last year. A more speculative play is Beazer (BZH), which isn't yet profitable, but has eased short-term liquidity fears with recent capital raises. [View news story]
Housing in San Diego is really tight. Prices are back up and inventory is very low. Friends who have been looking aren't finding anything they can afford (and yes, they're well off). At least around here, it's a sellers' market right now.
Hi davel. Yes, Intel is a big player in SSD. Don't underestimate the (eventual) need for security near the hardware level either. It's coming. Hackers can take ownership of your phone right now simply by setting up a baseband station that can be bought from Frys at very little cost. Cell phones are designed to trust these stations and many of them have essentially no protection against a malicious attack. This sort of thing is going to be huge at some point, and the access is via the firmware, not through OS-based software. For more on this particular vulnerability, google "all your basebands are belong to us".
As long as there's an overall contraction of the money supply due to deleveraging, QE should be effective. We're still in a contractionary mode. CPI shows deflation since April. The overall money supply is still contracting as debts are written off and/or paid down. I expect the FOMC will hold off, however, until they see what effect the ECB's bond-buying has on the EZ.
Alternative Energy Technologies and the Origin of Specious [View article]
Craig, your argument is equivalent to saying that you met a guy who survived a plane wreck and that therefore no one has ever died in a plane wreck. The occurrence of trapped hydrocarbons does not constitute proof that hydrocarbons never travel or that gaseous hydrocarbons never rise.
Anyone who's ever worked in water quality can tell you many stories of leachate from waste-storage systems that everyone was sure were leakproof having contaminated a groundwater basin. It's extremely rare that things placed underground stay where they're put. Entropy always wins in the end.
James, with respect, I think you're bringing bias to your reading of the speech. You take some parts at face value and others you presume to be "a sop to critics". There was no need to read the speech if you'd predetermined how you'll perceive it.
For many months now, we've been hearing from SA commenters that Bernanke (presumably because people don't want to admit that it's the full FOMC, not just one man) would launch another round of QE that very month. Every time, I've disagreed. Why? Because we weren't at the edge of a crisis. The economy was still growing -- albeit slowly. I've been right each time. My secret is simple. I take Bernanke at his word. I don't presume that some things he says are window dressing and other things convey intentionality. I take the whole speech at face value. History demonstrates that works better than reading into his speeches things he didn't actually say.
My reading is that the FOMC is concerned we may be getting close to a double dip. The CPI inflation rate has been negative since April. If they were just looking for an excuse, they'd have acted already. Instead they're holding off because, indeed, they have concerns that they're in uncharted waters. Looking back at the CPI prior to Q1 and Q2, we see that Q1 was preceded by four full months of strongly deflationary prints, including a -2% MoM inflation (Oct-Nov 2008). Q2 was preceded by 8 months of stagnation (~0% inflation). I'd say the trigger point is close. If CPI continues to decline through October, I think the FOMC will act. Whether they act in Oct or Nov will probably depend on the severity of the deflation.
How will they act? That part's actually unclear to me. They'd previously signaled they might do another round of something like twist -- i.e., sell short term assets and buy longer term ones (presumably the long bond or maybe MBS's). But the data suggest that twist isn't enough. It's revived the housing market (which is I believe was the intent all along) but has not counteracted the overall deleveraging and consequent contraction of the money supply. To prevent depressionary contraction of the money supply, the Fed probably does need to print, so my best guess is that we'll see QE3 in the Oct -- or more likely -- Nov timeframe. That's based on a 100% straight reading of the speech and a simple analysis of the CPI. The future will tell us if I was right or wrong.
Intel Recommends Stockholders Reject TRC Capital’s “Mini-Tender” Offer [View article]
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A Solar Stock Investment Plan For 2012 [View article]
Solar Energy Stocks To Short And A Solar ETF To Buy [View article]
One year later: I'm sitting on >2x gains in spwr so I reckon I done alright.
Power-One Posts Strong Q2 [View article]
Congress may have broken up for the elections, but Senate leaders from both sides are coalescing around a three-step deal to avert the "fiscal cliff" and reduce the deficit. The plan includes raising revenue through revamping the tax code, savings from Medicare and social security, and cuts to federal programs. However, the sides remain far apart on the details, while House Republicans are not involved in the talks. [View news story]
Why QE3 Will Not Happen [View article]
This is beyond silly. Bernanke is a world renowned economist. His reputation was cemented during the onset of the financial meltdown when he, and he alone, remained calm in the midst of crisis. One thing Bernanke doesn't need is help getting or keeping a job. He can get a job anytime he likes -- one that pays far better and has far less stress than the one he has now.
Republican House Speaker John Boehner says he’s not sure Congress and President Obama can reach a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. “I’m not confident at all,” Boehner quips. It may just be electioneering by the Republicans to keep the heat on the President going into October, but it's risky banter with a resolution already priced into the markets - like we have right now. [View news story]
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: +1.7 to 92.9, vs. consensus of 91.5, 91.2 in July. The employment indicators and capital outlays and expectations for business conditions improved substantially. The percent of owners viewing the current period as a bad time to expand due to political uncertainty reached a new record high of 22%. [View news story]
Maybe instead of asking "where are the jobs" we should be asking "where is the job training".
After a 72% Y/Y rise in the XHB, the housing recovery rates the cover at Barron's. "We're in the early stages," says Lennar (LEN) President Rick Beckwith. The industry could triple in size to 1.8M housing starts in the next 3-4 years, says Ivy Zelman, who thinks Lennar could earn $5.30/share in FY15 vs. $0.48 last year. A more speculative play is Beazer (BZH), which isn't yet profitable, but has eased short-term liquidity fears with recent capital raises. [View news story]
After a 72% Y/Y rise in the XHB, the housing recovery rates the cover at Barron's. "We're in the early stages," says Lennar (LEN) President Rick Beckwith. The industry could triple in size to 1.8M housing starts in the next 3-4 years, says Ivy Zelman, who thinks Lennar could earn $5.30/share in FY15 vs. $0.48 last year. A more speculative play is Beazer (BZH), which isn't yet profitable, but has eased short-term liquidity fears with recent capital raises. [View news story]
ARM Strength Threatens Intel [View article]
The weak NFP print increases the likelihood the Fed will launch fresh stimulus at its policy meeting next week, writes Jon Hilsenrath. Bernanke made clear (again) his concerns over the labor market in his Jackson Hole speech, leaving the suggestion he's itching to take action. Today's report, combined with ISM in contraction territory, may give him the opening. [View news story]
Alternative Energy Technologies and the Origin of Specious [View article]
Anyone who's ever worked in water quality can tell you many stories of leachate from waste-storage systems that everyone was sure were leakproof having contaminated a groundwater basin. It's extremely rare that things placed underground stay where they're put. Entropy always wins in the end.
Bernanke Doubles Down On Fed Put [View article]
For many months now, we've been hearing from SA commenters that Bernanke (presumably because people don't want to admit that it's the full FOMC, not just one man) would launch another round of QE that very month. Every time, I've disagreed. Why? Because we weren't at the edge of a crisis. The economy was still growing -- albeit slowly. I've been right each time. My secret is simple. I take Bernanke at his word. I don't presume that some things he says are window dressing and other things convey intentionality. I take the whole speech at face value. History demonstrates that works better than reading into his speeches things he didn't actually say.
My reading is that the FOMC is concerned we may be getting close to a double dip. The CPI inflation rate has been negative since April. If they were just looking for an excuse, they'd have acted already. Instead they're holding off because, indeed, they have concerns that they're in uncharted waters. Looking back at the CPI prior to Q1 and Q2, we see that Q1 was preceded by four full months of strongly deflationary prints, including a -2% MoM inflation (Oct-Nov 2008). Q2 was preceded by 8 months of stagnation (~0% inflation). I'd say the trigger point is close. If CPI continues to decline through October, I think the FOMC will act. Whether they act in Oct or Nov will probably depend on the severity of the deflation.
How will they act? That part's actually unclear to me. They'd previously signaled they might do another round of something like twist -- i.e., sell short term assets and buy longer term ones (presumably the long bond or maybe MBS's). But the data suggest that twist isn't enough. It's revived the housing market (which is I believe was the intent all along) but has not counteracted the overall deleveraging and consequent contraction of the money supply. To prevent depressionary contraction of the money supply, the Fed probably does need to print, so my best guess is that we'll see QE3 in the Oct -- or more likely -- Nov timeframe. That's based on a 100% straight reading of the speech and a simple analysis of the CPI. The future will tell us if I was right or wrong.