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SanDiegoNonSurfer

SanDiegoNonSurfer
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  • Dividend Stocks Will Give My Daughter $600,000 On Her 18th Birthday [View article]
    Or you can use an online compounding calculator that takes contributions into account. Here's a nice, simple one that's good enough for this calculation: http://bit.ly/1OeYlhH And here's a more elaborate one with a bit more flexibility: http://bit.ly/RIRZ2r
    Sep 3, 2015. 09:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Will Give My Daughter $600,000 On Her 18th Birthday [View article]
    Ah, I see it in there now. Don't know how I missed it! Thanks.
    Sep 3, 2015. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Will Give My Daughter $600,000 On Her 18th Birthday [View article]
    "your other contributions (in order) are worth:
    $12,321
    $13,676
    $15,181
    $16,861
    $18,704"

    Did you perhaps miss a year? y0 to y6 is seven contributions, and I only see 5 "other" contributions in the list...?
    Sep 3, 2015. 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Will Give My Daughter $600,000 On Her 18th Birthday [View article]
    " Who gives a flip about his numbers"

    Sorry if I came across as critical. Agree the author deserves credit for thinking ahead and establishing an investment his daughter can appreciate and learn from. If it were my money, though, I'd certainly care about factors that can (or rather shall) impact my valuation estimates. Wouldn't you?
    Sep 3, 2015. 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Will Give My Daughter $600,000 On Her 18th Birthday [View article]
    "Now the account becomes a business, in to which the daughter becomes an employee. Since she is now an employee, she is now eligible for a Roth IRA."

    If that sounds a lot like a perpetual motion idea, that's because it is. Each one of those components contributes its own tax "friction", which you also need to calculate.
    Sep 3, 2015. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks Will Give My Daughter $600,000 On Her 18th Birthday [View article]
    With $10k at Year 0 and monthly contributions of $833, I get 11% growth rate needed. Presumably DRIP would reduce that to a more credible growth rate. But, there's a contradiction here. You can't both DRIP and be getting those divies as income in the meanwhile. She (or the author) will need to choose one or the other.

    The other factor to consider is that average yearly gains are not the correct basis for estimating the eventual value. For that, you need to take portfolio variability onto account. You can do that by estimating future volatility of the overall portfolio and using the geometric (instead of arithmetic) mean. Google "volatility drag" for more on portfolio variance effects.
    Sep 3, 2015. 05:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Spikes And Easy Money: Volatility Dependent Fed Policy [View article]
    This is an interesting perspective, but you're confusing historical volatility with implied volatility. The VIX is based only on implied volatility. S&P movements are historical volatility. They're not the same, although it can sort of look that way because implied volatility spikes (driven by put buying) whenever the S&P drops substantially.

    This consideration may not change your conclusion, but it does affect your data and how it's interpreted.
    Sep 3, 2015. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    "complaining about option spreads on Mondays open not being 'fair'"

    I think the problem is you're using "fair" in a sense that's different from how the articles use it. They're using it in the sense of normal price dynamics relative to the underlying. You're using it in the sense of "life wasn't fair to me". If you try re-reading with that in mind, I think you'll see a different meaning emerge that's actually quite interesting and has nothing to do with "whining".
    Sep 2, 2015. 10:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    Is this an example of what you call "whining":
    "RSP got hit hard Monday, before it recovered, trading below $50 when 'fair value' for the underlying stocks never dropped below $71"
    ?

    Because if it is, you have a very different definition than I do.
    Sep 2, 2015. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    " I can't beleive any part of the discussion has revolved around how the market last Monday was 'unfair'. "

    Do you mean the mentions under "The Ugly"? That's not at all how I read those. I read them as mispricings that opened arbitrage opportunities. Normally arbitrage is highly unstable. When you see it, there are probably some unusual conditions at play. In this case, I took it as demonstrating the "in extremis" nature of these market days, i.e. days that deserve to be called "ugly".
    Sep 2, 2015. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    "There must be many postal workers here surfing the net at the company's time."

    Well that's certainly a convincing rhetorical ploy (not).

    This point was raised already, but deserves further consideration. The postal service is not (and should not) be competing against UPS. UPS can choose to only provide high-margin offerings. USPS cannot and should not be doing that. Instead, it should support interstate commerce by serving also and especially non-profitable regions of the U.S. -- small towns and rural areas that are not served (and/or ill-served) by for-profit companies such as your beloved UPS.
    Sep 2, 2015. 02:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soccer Mom Sticker Shock: Tesla Prices Model X Signature At $133,200 And Up [View article]
    "most people will opt to add such things as a steering wheel and seats"

    And the "ludicrous speed option". I mean, really, what's the point of owning a Tesla if you don't add the ludicrous speed option?
    Sep 1, 2015. 11:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy SVXY Is Now, And Maybe Again Later [View article]
    Hi RioFinn,

    I'm currently using a signal that's not yet publicly available, so let me instead suggest that VRatio (see the free link I posted above) and VRatio10 are both quite good.

    The one I'm using is based on a combination of VRatio and VRatio10, with differing high- and low-side choices calculated from VRatio's and VRatio10's statistical P/L biases and will be available for free on our site when it goes live.

    Time to front-month expiry is also an important consideration, as the roll-yield effect begins kicking in when this approaches.

    We take that into account as well, in a simple, straightforward way I haven't seen described elsewhere. We'll have an article on that, which we'll publish on our site and also submit to SA, so I don't want to go into more detail prior to that. Let me know by SA messaging if you'd like a heads-up when it comes out.

    Meanwhile, Jay Wolberg (http://bit.ly/1O6vv2P) has a nice gauge indicator for roll-yield effects on his blog. Suggest you check it out -- and his blog in general, which is really great.
    Sep 1, 2015. 06:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy SVXY Is Now, And Maybe Again Later [View article]
    Zaphod15,

    Also check out the comments below by Jay Wolberg. I've just read his blog posts linked in those comments and they're great. This is yet another free source of information and trading signals for you. Looks like Jay publishes several indicators (http://bit.ly/1N0J0lY) that would be complementary to the free VRatio link I posted for you above. More free stuff for you.

    Nice work, Jay!
    Sep 1, 2015. 03:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy SVXY Is Now, And Maybe Again Later [View article]
    Zaphod15,

    I've created a link for you that shows VRatio using StockCharts. Vratio is just the ratio ^VXV:^VIX: http://bit.ly/1hvv87i

    This is free and you (and others) can start using it as a trading signal immediately. You can also use stockchart's options to plot VRatio's 10-day moving average -- the VRatio10 signal.

    We'll be putting up a website later this year that specializes in volatility trading signals and variations on them. The signals will be visible on the website for free. We'll charge a small fee for an alerting service for those who don't want to monitor the signals themselves and would rather be notified when their selected strategy signals a trade.

    We'll also start providing a flow of informational articles on both our website and on SA on how to use these strategies and...no less important...why they work, so you can tune your own trading signals.

    If you'd like me to let you know when this goes live, so you can take advantage of just the freebies, send me an inbox message on SA.
    Sep 1, 2015. 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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