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SanDiegoNonSurfer

SanDiegoNonSurfer
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  • Need 7-8% Yields In Retirement? Build Your Income Portfolio With Closed-End Funds (Part III: Discounts And Premiums) [View article]
    Thanks, LB! I just verified that the x*x trick works and that the numbers match for one of my CEF holdings.

    I found a page that describes how to download yahoo historical data here: http://bit.ly/1nDB7qu Tried the url format it describes and it did work, worked well enough that is. I asked for data since 2006 with s=AWF&c=2006 and got all data instead. Probably 'c' is not the right code for start year, but this is close enough.

    Cool!
    Jul 15 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Need 7-8% Yields In Retirement? Build Your Income Portfolio With Closed-End Funds (Part III: Discounts And Premiums) [View article]
    Best test is with data. I don't know where to get free data for CEFs though. Might want to see if ycharts or guru can supply what you need. If they don't list NAV explicitly, you should be able to get it by choosing "Book". If you find a good data source, let me know and I'll help with the analysis.
    Jul 15 12:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Need 7-8% Yields In Retirement? Build Your Income Portfolio With Closed-End Funds (Part III: Discounts And Premiums) [View article]
    dnpvd51...why did you ask if your mind's already made up :-)

    The CEF can only liquidate itself if it has a market to sell into. When there's a crash, liquidity dries up, everyone's afraid. Only vulture investors are going to buy assets and they're offering pennies on the dollar.

    If you're concerned about safety, leverage not discount, should be the first thing to screen for. That and asset quality. What good would a discount do if a fund's assets all went to zero because of defaults during a crisis?
    Jul 14 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • White Collar Crime Expert Slams Herbalife: An Exclusive Interview With Sam Antar [View article]
    In California, such intimidation tactics are called SLAPP suits and they're illegal.
    Jul 14 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why U.S. Stocks Will Keep Powering Higher [View article]
    Central banks aren't going to create a liquidity squeeze. The reason liquidity vanished in 2009 is because the pyramid of leveraged loans all went bad at once. This was something the banks and investment houses and public did. The central banks have been re-injecting the liquidity that was lost from that rapid contraction. They'll stop as that's no longer needed.
    Jul 14 01:19 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Need 7-8% Yields In Retirement? Build Your Income Portfolio With Closed-End Funds (Part III: Discounts And Premiums) [View article]
    dnpvd51, It doesn't work that way. I think that's where most investors go astray -- in thinking there's a safety margin as long as price is below NAV. Price will fall to reflect the market's estimate of future NAV and returns. If a CEF is in a more vulnerable market space after the crisis, its price will fall further to reflect those lowered future expectations. It's not a matter of what the discount or premium was before the crisis.
    Jul 14 04:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 16 Good Reasons To Be Wary Of A Market Downturn [View article]
    Data, Tack, on the larger question of gov't never being beneficial. That you really would need to provide to be taken seriously on this topic and not just sound like a tea nut (which is beneath you, for sure).

    Happens I agree with you on the need for checks and balances. But that's quite different from gridlock that prevents even routine functions such as paying the debts we've already incurred and filling appointments. Gridlock also contributes to taking from the general fund rather than revamping programs in trouble such as the HTF, SDI, etc.
    Jul 14 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 16 Good Reasons To Be Wary Of A Market Downturn [View article]
    "Gridlock is wonderful for the economy and markets."

    You'd need to back that up with data, Tack, to convince me. Budget standoff resulting in a gov't shutdown didn't exactly stimulate the economy or boost the markets.
    Jul 14 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 16 Good Reasons To Be Wary Of A Market Downturn [View article]
    "If Republicans win the Senate and the House is overrun by the TP, there should be some more default noise."

    Nah, don't think so. Republicans are historically big spenders who like to give out candy. The default threats were always just grandstanding to garner votes from their base and (they hoped) concessions for their lobbyists. The bigger risk is gridlock.
    Jul 14 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 16 Good Reasons To Be Wary Of A Market Downturn [View article]
    "everyone except those bidding up dozens and dozens of money losing companies to multi billion dollar valuations each, based on fantasy 2019 estimates.... put up your money, go long P, Yelp, grpn, and angi. IWM too, buy the triple leveraged version"

    MT, that's silly.

    Here's a sample of my holdings:
    ESV: P/E=8.9, Div=5.6%, payout=42%, debt/eq=0.37 (dripped)
    BLX: P/E=12.7, Div=4.6%, payout=44.5%, debt/eq=1.4 (dripped)
    sold $50 puts on VLO: P/E=9.4%, debt/eq=0.37

    I do have a couple that are somewhat richly valued -- INTC at 16.80 and GAS at 14.35, and I'm holding an mREIT (TWO), but most look pretty much like the examples above. I also have a 25% cash reserve from having been called out of AA, AGO, and GLX earlier this year.

    This is quite conservative investing.
    Jul 14 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 16 Good Reasons To Be Wary Of A Market Downturn [View article]
    "one of the key stimulants of the bull market, QE, is ending"

    MT, QE has been ending since January. In fact after October it will no longer be ending. There's no future event here.
    Jul 13 11:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Need 7-8% Yields In Retirement? Build Your Income Portfolio With Closed-End Funds (Part III: Discounts And Premiums) [View article]
    Please don't hang your head LB...those pointy horns look dangerous :-)

    I brought it up primarily because I think too much emphasis is placed on discount to NAV. If one wants a single discount metric, z-stat is a better choice. I was glad to see your discussion of it here. But the whole discount/premium proposition is more subtle than that. Discount to NAV is analogous to a low P/E in that it reflects market skepticism towards future performance/growth.
    Jul 13 10:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Need 7-8% Yields In Retirement? Build Your Income Portfolio With Closed-End Funds (Part III: Discounts And Premiums) [View article]
    "Of course, buying [PDI] at the wrong time, say May 2012 when the fund was selling at a 7% premium, could have generated a substantial loss as the premium vanished and the discount expanded to touch -10%."

    On May 25, 2012 share price closed at 25.00
    Latest close was 32.78

    That's not "a substantial loss". It's a 31% gain.
    Jul 13 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here We Go Again? [View article]
    Actually, Bret, I get most of my geopolitical news from Stratfor (http://www.stratfor.com). You should try it sometime. HufPo has cuter videos of puppies and kittens though.
    Jul 13 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Found The Cheapest Stock In The Stock Market [View article]
    nemo,

    You do know what exponential growth is, right? If not, here's a picture: http://bit.ly/1oUpSJV
    Jul 13 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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