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SanDiegoNonSurfer

SanDiegoNonSurfer
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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    "complaining about option spreads on Mondays open not being 'fair'"

    I think the problem is you're using "fair" in a sense that's different from how the articles use it. They're using it in the sense of normal price dynamics relative to the underlying. You're using it in the sense of "life wasn't fair to me". If you try re-reading with that in mind, I think you'll see a different meaning emerge that's actually quite interesting and has nothing to do with "whining".
    Sep 2, 2015. 10:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    Is this an example of what you call "whining":
    "RSP got hit hard Monday, before it recovered, trading below $50 when 'fair value' for the underlying stocks never dropped below $71"
    ?

    Because if it is, you have a very different definition than I do.
    Sep 2, 2015. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    " I can't beleive any part of the discussion has revolved around how the market last Monday was 'unfair'. "

    Do you mean the mentions under "The Ugly"? That's not at all how I read those. I read them as mispricings that opened arbitrage opportunities. Normally arbitrage is highly unstable. When you see it, there are probably some unusual conditions at play. In this case, I took it as demonstrating the "in extremis" nature of these market days, i.e. days that deserve to be called "ugly".
    Sep 2, 2015. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    "There must be many postal workers here surfing the net at the company's time."

    Well that's certainly a convincing rhetorical ploy (not).

    This point was raised already, but deserves further consideration. The postal service is not (and should not) be competing against UPS. UPS can choose to only provide high-margin offerings. USPS cannot and should not be doing that. Instead, it should support interstate commerce by serving also and especially non-profitable regions of the U.S. -- small towns and rural areas that are not served (and/or ill-served) by for-profit companies such as your beloved UPS.
    Sep 2, 2015. 02:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soccer Mom Sticker Shock: Tesla Prices Model X Signature At $133,200 And Up [View article]
    "most people will opt to add such things as a steering wheel and seats"

    And the "ludicrous speed option". I mean, really, what's the point of owning a Tesla if you don't add the ludicrous speed option?
    Sep 1, 2015. 11:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy SVXY Is Now, And Maybe Again Later [View article]
    Hi RioFinn,

    I'm currently using a signal that's not yet publicly available, so let me instead suggest that VRatio (see the free link I posted above) and VRatio10 are both quite good.

    The one I'm using is based on a combination of VRatio and VRatio10, with differing high- and low-side choices calculated from VRatio's and VRatio10's statistical P/L biases and will be available for free on our site when it goes live.

    Time to front-month expiry is also an important consideration, as the roll-yield effect begins kicking in when this approaches.

    We take that into account as well, in a simple, straightforward way I haven't seen described elsewhere. We'll have an article on that, which we'll publish on our site and also submit to SA, so I don't want to go into more detail prior to that. Let me know by SA messaging if you'd like a heads-up when it comes out.

    Meanwhile, Jay Wolberg (http://bit.ly/1O6vv2P) has a nice gauge indicator for roll-yield effects on his blog. Suggest you check it out -- and his blog in general, which is really great.
    Sep 1, 2015. 06:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy SVXY Is Now, And Maybe Again Later [View article]
    Zaphod15,

    Also check out the comments below by Jay Wolberg. I've just read his blog posts linked in those comments and they're great. This is yet another free source of information and trading signals for you. Looks like Jay publishes several indicators (http://bit.ly/1N0J0lY) that would be complementary to the free VRatio link I posted for you above. More free stuff for you.

    Nice work, Jay!
    Sep 1, 2015. 03:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy SVXY Is Now, And Maybe Again Later [View article]
    Zaphod15,

    I've created a link for you that shows VRatio using StockCharts. Vratio is just the ratio ^VXV:^VIX: http://bit.ly/1hvv87i

    This is free and you (and others) can start using it as a trading signal immediately. You can also use stockchart's options to plot VRatio's 10-day moving average -- the VRatio10 signal.

    We'll be putting up a website later this year that specializes in volatility trading signals and variations on them. The signals will be visible on the website for free. We'll charge a small fee for an alerting service for those who don't want to monitor the signals themselves and would rather be notified when their selected strategy signals a trade.

    We'll also start providing a flow of informational articles on both our website and on SA on how to use these strategies and...no less important...why they work, so you can tune your own trading signals.

    If you'd like me to let you know when this goes live, so you can take advantage of just the freebies, send me an inbox message on SA.
    Sep 1, 2015. 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy SVXY Is Now, And Maybe Again Later [View article]
    "if svxy at 50 is pretty much guaranteed to make money given time, why would anyone sell it at 50?"

    That's a good question to ask oneself. The reason to sell is that one expects it to fall in the near term.

    You're correct that if you start from a low enough base and hold for a long enough time, svxy (or xiv) will recover and rise -- unless it goes to zero, which is possible but unlikely. The reason this is the case is that contango is the normal shape of the term structure and over a long enough time, the number of days in contango will be substantially greater than the number of days in backwardation.

    But...and this is the catch...you may wait a long time for a positive return. Meanwhile, your position may lose 40%, 50%, perhaps even 80% of its value at purchase. How long do you want to wait to recover from a potential drawdown of such magnitude? Wouldn't you prefer to have your money put to better use in the meanwhile?

    Implied volatility (the basis of these ETNs) has statistical biases that make positional outcomes reasonably predictable. Even the near-term future shape of the term structure is fairly predictable. If you can increase your chances of profit by one or more orders of magnitude by selling svxy (or waiting to buy) instead of holding it, then the question becomes...why wouldn't you? People who track these statistics and watch them for signals are the ones selling to you.
    Sep 1, 2015. 01:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy SVXY Is Now, And Maybe Again Later [View article]
    Out of vxx...rapid signal change, small but positive profit (1%). I'll stop posting these positions now. Just wanted to make clear it's not yet an XIV/SVXY world out there.
    Sep 1, 2015. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    "Lose the opportunity to UPS from on-line retailers"

    Actually, I've noticed that most of the online retailers I've bought from recently use USPS exclusively. FedEx seems to be the second most popular. Costs are similar enough that for me reliability is the most important. If I want something sent to my PO Box for security reasons, USPS is a no-brainer. If I'm ok having it arrive at my home, either FedEx or USPS are fine. UPS is a total crap shoot as to whether the package will go to me or to some other address, so I avoid them when possible.
    Sep 1, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy SVXY Is Now, And Maybe Again Later [View article]
    Back into vxx today. Left money on the table by not getting back in yesterday, but that's ok.
    Sep 1, 2015. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From The Trends That Teenagers Actually Like, Part 2 Of 3 [View article]
    Great idea for a series! Followed.
    Aug 31, 2015. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy SVXY Is Now, And Maybe Again Later [View article]
    Still avoiding the volatility ETFs. Today's signal supports buying VXX but it's not strongly in VXX territory. Because that's the riskier side of the trade, I prefer to avoid VXX until there's a stronger signal for it.
    Aug 31, 2015. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Lessons From The Market Turmoil? [View article]
    "The last time I asked my friends to buy oil..."

    Please be careful with that line of thinking. Past outcomes do not alter future probabilities.
    Aug 31, 2015. 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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