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techy46

techy46
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  • Could The S&P 500 Fall To 1,625? [View article]
    A 20% correction in the S&P 500 is possible but first the FED will introduce negative rates for overnight bank deposits at the FED and that just might shake the monkeys out of the trees.
    Oct 16 01:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Microsoft A Buy Into Earnings? [View article]
    Microsoft at $2.70-$3.00 EPS is fairly priced at $41-45 PS but I wouldn't establish a new position at this point. The April 2015 $42 LEAPs present a better entry for $3.30. Microsoft needs to show that Lumia smart phones can ship around 40 million units a year, Surface is performing well and Windows 10 fixes W8.1 integration of touch with desktop UI even if they are separated by device type. Intel's 14nm chips will Windows 10 could create a great refresh story for H2 2015.
    Oct 15 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Has 17.8% Upside: Long-Term Growth Potential Intact [View article]
    Good article. $2.22 x 15 = $34=35, 2015 $2.40 = $36-37, 2016 $2.60 = $39-42.

    It's going to depend heavily on PC market share, Windows 10 refresh uptake and Intel's continued mobile strategy in tablets turning into same for smart phones by 2016. Intel's going to have $4 .1 billion M&C contra revenue by EOY 2014. Turning that around before EOY 2015 is huge. Analysts really wanted to win the channel stuffing inventory story but I think IDC and Gartner are getting confused by all-in-1 vs. tablets like Asus T100 and MS Surface plus Intel clobbering AMD and Android tablet chip makers. It was interesting that Intel's wins are 80% Android.
    Oct 15 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Profiting From Legacy Technology [View article]
    Author •Revenue in the Mobile and Communications Group collapsed from last quarter's $51 million to a mere $1 million as the group posted a $1 billion operating loss.

    The M&C Group had gross revenue of about $450 million, loss of $1,043 billion and net revenue of $1 million. The author doesn't recognize that Intel sold 15,000,000 Atoms but offset the revenue with contra BOM costs for using Atoms expensive components. If Intel can sell 45-55 million Atoms in 2015 and 2016 for $30 with little or no contra BOM costs then the net revenue for M&C Group explodes to $1.3-1.5 billion at 65% GM.
    Oct 15 03:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel To Skeptics: 'I Told You So' [View article]
    Intel did well but analysts really want a bad story because they missed the move in Q1-Q3 2014. The key takeaways were that Intel's taking market share from AMD, the mobile strategy is working but Intel will cap it at between 40-45 million Atoms for about $2.7 billion in revenue at 0% GM and that Gartner and IDC are having a really tough time with the PC, all-in-1 and tablet device definitions. It was amusing that Surface was used as an example. Surface and Surface Pro 4 with Intel Atom and Core M Inside will really mess up the numbers. INTC is on sale toady!!!!
    Oct 15 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Good But Not Great [View article]
    Nice article but misses the real insight to the 14nm story, market share increases and the success in the mobile strategy.

    If you do the math on what's possible in Q4 2014 if inventories are sold off and the M&C $1.043 billion revenue offset by contra revenue on 15 million Atoms things look really good for 2015-16. If Intel can sell 45-55 million Atoms in 2015 and 2016 at $30 ASP and 65% GM then it adds $1.35-1.65 billion in revenue and $900 million to $1 billion in GP. Very Long INTC 2015 and beyond LEAPs.
    Oct 15 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Skylake Development Appears To Be On Schedule [View article]
    II - Intel's numbers do NOT add up. A server market of several hundred thousand CPUs does not make up for the drop in a 300 million CPU PC market.

    INTC's number do add up but they're not going give away their strategy while WS creates a huge buy back opportunity for Intel. You really need to do the math on the $1,043,000,000 of revenue in Mobile & Communications Division for those 15,000,000 Atoms in mobile devices.

    Isn't it amusing to read the INTC earnings call transcript and the analysts trying to dig into the fact that Intel is NOT Microchip. They've definitely created an opportunity with the bulging inventory story feed by a know Holiday pandemic killing retail sales. The Apple sell off today is definitely Apple being traded 31 for 3 Intel shares. Never ever underestimate the power of WS pimps.
    Oct 15 02:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market: Inversions, Tech Deals And Upgrades/Downgrades Moving These Names [View article]
    Perfect storm, almost black swan, we got rates collapsing due to domestic and global economic news, Ebola pandemic fears and October bewitching with fund balancing for year end before Halloween parties. A couple more Ebola cases should put us beyond the 10% correction in the DOW and S&P 500. Apple and Intel sell offs mark the setup for Nov-Jan opportunities. Hopefully gas prices will go to $2.89 gallon to fuel Holiday spending.
    Oct 15 02:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Introduces Technology to Help Bridge Retail Security Gap, Drive Adoption of the Internet of Things [View article]
    Huge strategy for Intel but analysts won't get it until revenue, GM and GP goes up!
    Oct 15 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel downgraded at Morgan Stanley; now sharply lower premarket [View news story]
    If there ever was an INTC buying opportunity it's from now until Oct 31st, Happy Halloween!
    Oct 15 12:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel downgraded at Morgan Stanley; now sharply lower premarket [View news story]
    Nothing new INTC is always a contra to WS beloved Apple, ARMH and QCOM the PC's dead didn't everyone know that?
    Oct 15 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel downgraded at Morgan Stanley; now sharply lower premarket [View news story]
    Android devices and market share taken from AMD.
    Oct 15 12:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel downgraded at Morgan Stanley; now sharply lower premarket [View news story]
    Intel has been very specific that they will use 40% FCF to support dividend growth and the rest goes to buybacks and CAPEX to support 22-14-10nm tick tock. If that's not good enough then I'd invest in Apple.
    Oct 15 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel downgraded at Morgan Stanley; now sharply lower premarket [View news story]
    Yes, the analyst were very persistent on the inventory issue and CEO and CFO were just as persistent that the inventories look normal compared to seasonal demand. I think all these "analyst" missed the story that 80% of Intel's tablets are Android not Windows and that Intel's taking a whole bunch of notebook share from somebody and it has to be AMD.
    Oct 15 12:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel beats estimates, issues solid guidance [View news story]
    Interesting take away from the Q&A was that BK said they wanted to hit 40-45 million mobile SoC's with contra revenue but not anything more! That means they are very confident that the strategy is working and planting the seedlings for M&C growth in 2015-16.
    Oct 14 11:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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