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  • Update: Barrick Gold Hopes To Proceed With Pascua-Lama [View article]
    So Pascua Lama (PL)is going to take $9 billion, $5 billion already from ABX and another $4 billion from Chinese, to complete. What does that get the Chinese? How about 45% ownership in the PL project. What's the PL project worth? Well, 800,000 ounces of gold at $1000 per ounce less $300 production costs and $560 per ounce depreciation of the $9 billion in mine costs cuts it pretty thin. Of course ABX has already paid their $560 per ounce so they really get back $224 million a year from the depreciation cash flow. But IF gold goes up to $1250 and stays there then that's another $200 million a year or $4 billion over 20 years. Lots of IFs and BUTs.
    Nov 14 06:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Competing Views Leading Up To Analyst Day On November 20th [View article]
    Great article. At $2.40 EPS and a PE of 15 INTC's obviously a $36 PS stock with the Jan 2017 INTC $30's going for $6.80. However, the Jan 2015 $30 are $4.20 and with the stock at $33.86 we're only looking at a $0.34 time value.

    So, it's going to be interesting to see what if any announcements on Atom, Core M, LTE and channel inventory Intel makes next Thursday. We need some clarity in the channel stuffing acquisations with updates on LTR, SoFIA and 2015 roadmap very helpful. Microsoft's Windows 10 progress is becoming a positive also.

    I'm long on INTC Jan 2015 $30, very on July 2015 $30 and slightly on Jan 2016 $27 and Jan 2017 $30.
    Nov 14 01:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrickā€™s new Chile hire does not signal Pascua Lama re-start, analyst says [View news story]
    Let's see ABX appoints a Chinese VP for China mining projects and hires a Chilean heavy hitter for Pascua Lama (PL) project. That does not mean that ABX is going to restart the Pascua Lama project in the next 30-90 days with Chinese help and resources but I wouldn't bet against it. ABX will sell 50% of PL to Chinese for $3 billion cash and $1-2 billion in investment in the project with an expected completion date of mid 2017 and ABX could go to $17 PS on the news.
    Nov 14 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Will Shareholders Benefit From Microsoft's Culture Change? [View article]
    Author - Satya Nadella as he transitions the company from PCs and software to cloud and services.

    Not really, he's finishing moving Azure private cloud to public cloud using Windows and Linux servers while opening up Azure and Visual Studio to open source using .NET enterprise applications and client apps. Microsoft's still all about software it's just not relying on small and large enterprises to do the heavy lifting when Microsoft can offer enterprise cloud agreements using their 16 $1 billion Azure global data centers. Azure's capitalization of Microsoft's pile of cash was started by Ballmer and is a natural way to offer "infrastructure and software as a service" (IaaS and SaaS) leasing cloud resources to all consumers.

    Microsoft's also looking to turn all devices into Azure PC's by embracing the ,NET CLR and stack on Android, iOS/OSx and Windows. It just makes sense to allow the billions of smart devices to consume enterprise content and run apps while accessing Azure services and software. A personal computer does not have to have Intel Inside or run Windows anymore but I wouldn't bet against smart devices with Intel Inside running Windows.

    INTC $40 PS and MSFT $60 PS by Jan 2016, buy both on the dips.
    Nov 14 11:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Will Shareholders Benefit From Microsoft's Culture Change? [View article]
    Microsoft's doing an end run on smart phones lowering the price of the middle biding their time to attack the top. The new Lumia 830 is a great middle tier 5" 16Gb microSD wireless charging phone for $450 from AT&T off contract. The rumored Lumia 940 high end 5" would surpass equal or surpass all competitors but will not happen until Windows 10 merges W8.1 with WP8.1.

    In the meantime, Microsoft's giving full force to Azure cloud and opening up their PC dominance to Android and Apple ecosystem will Intel is supporting that with their Atom and Core M push into tablets and smart phones. It's kind of ironic that 10 years ago we saw the EU and US socialist cops take aim at Wintel for doing exactly what Android is now accomplishing; forcing Google onto majority of smart devices as part of Android. Android, Apple and ARMH successes mean that Intel can offer contra revenue Atoms and Microsoft can offer free smart Windows and build devices. PC's and Wintel are not dead they're just becoming smart at socializing their technology.
    Nov 14 11:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia's Tough 2015: TSMC Delays 16 Nm Production, AMD Introduces New Boards, And Intel Tries To Gain Traction With IGpus [View article]
    Ouch, TMSC delaying 16nm is good news for Intel
    Nov 14 11:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm's Apple Problem [View article]
    Smart phones should be $100-200 commodities like 7" tablets and they'll soon have Intel Inside at 14nm. The price of smart phone chips will be $20-35 and that's going to knock the top off of smart price ASP and GM.
    Nov 13 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft roundup: Aorato, developer tools, Xbox One [View news story]
    .NET on iOS and OSx too ;)
    Nov 13 10:10 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: ARM chipmakers are no match for Intel [View news story]
    Nice reality check!
    Nov 13 10:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: A Projection For 2015 [View article]
    Great article. Yes, if INTC does $2.50 EPS by 2016 then it will definitely be a $40 PS stock but more importantly it will mean that their mobile strategy is working which can push them towards $45 PS plus in very short order.
    Nov 12 07:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment Strategy Outlook [View article]
    Half in, half out but trying to generate 4-5% on in vs. 0.05% on out. Not much fun but safer then all in.
    Nov 12 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Not Surprised With This Decline In Gold [View article]
    There's nothing wrong with having a few ounces of $1000-1200 gold laying around along with some gold miner's shares who are producing it at $500-600 per ounce when the Fed's just finished with debasing the USD to about $0.10 in 1970's values. You could always double down at $800. It will be really interesting to see how the Chinese react in the 3-5 years term as the USD loses it's global base currency status.
    Nov 12 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick wants to find way forward for Pascua Lama project [View news story]
    Easy sell the Chinese 50% of the project for $4 billion and then they both have to contribute an additional $2 billion to finish it. ABX could reduce the debt by $2 billion with the other $2 billion from the Chinese. They would both share 50/50 in the $8-12 billion in profits from the 16 million ounces of production over the next 10-20 years. It sounds simple but it's a lot more complicated then it sounds.
    Nov 12 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft takes .NET open source and cross-platform, adds new development capabilities with Visual Studio 2015, .NET 2015 and Visual Studio Online [View article]
    Very interesting move by Microsoft to finally use their software engineering excellence as a marketing advantage. There's no reason why one app or client server application shouldn't be able to run across all ecosystems. Apple and Google are not going to promote this but it's got huge advantages for all.
    Nov 12 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft takes .NET open source and cross-platform, adds new development capabilities with Visual Studio 2015, .NET 2015 and Visual Studio Online [View article]
    This was already in the works under Ballmer but Nadella gets the credit.
    Nov 12 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment