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techy46

techy46
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  • Microsoft And Intel Are Getting Desperate [View article]
    The fabless semiconductor ecosystem? What you really mean is the consumer semiconductor ecosystem is eating the consumers wallets with overpriced gadgets and toys. If I can buy a Vizio E390i HDTV for $400-500 why in hades would I ever pay $500-800 for an iPhone?
    Oct 20, 2013. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft And Intel Are Getting Desperate [View article]
    I wish I had something that I could sell fro $80-150 and it sold over 100 million copies while the prior version was still closing in on 655 million copies. Seriously, how could Windows 8.1 fail after having inly been out 1 day. Most reviewers I read say it's a great improvement and as with all Windows major revisions 8.2 is going to be the real winner.

    You have your bottom Line a little mixed up, Going forward, both Apple and Qualcomm's shareholder returns are likely to be compromised by both Moore's Law and the Law of Large Numbers. You see if they both trail Intel by 50% in gates per chip then they are going to succumb to Intel's tick tock strategy. It will not really hurt Samsung since they are beating both in chips and devices.

    Lat by not least, Julie Bort and Business Insider threw out the term "hate" to describe feelings for Windows 8 and Windows 8.1. That's kind of like quoting that Martha Stewart hates In-n-Out.
    Oct 19, 2013. 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Windows 8 Will Surprise Everyone [View article]
    What's really inevitable is that the PC can become both a smart phone and tablet or you can have all 3-4 sizes if you want. Yes 4 sizes includes my Vizio 39" with Wifi. As Intel said in last quarters earnings call the PC has died at least 4 time over the last 20 years. Intel and MS are racking up $32b annual profits and that's going to mean will have PC's from 4-62" starting at $150 by the end of 2013. It really doesn't matter whether your PC runs Android, iOS, OSx or Windows. it's still a PC with ARM or Intel inside.
    Oct 19, 2013. 08:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Windows 8 Will Surprise Everyone [View article]
    Nice concise and short article. I agreed with everything until;

    "So while companies like Intel (INTC) will probably continue to see anemic sales, I expect Microsoft's W8 sales to kick off and boost Microsoft's earnings over the next several quarters, and also help propel PC sales along the way."

    I think both Intel and MS are going to finally find the sweet spot in early 2014 with the all-in-1, 2-in1 and tablet functionality we've all been waiting for to extend our Windows experiences. Windows Phone/RT will continue to use Qualcomm Inside until Intel breaks the LTE logjam in 2015. Long ABX, FSC, GDV, GGN, INTC. MS and NLY.




    Oct 19, 2013. 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gartman Sours On Gold: He's Right For Now [View article]
    The continuation until Jan-Feb 2014 of the Tea Party assault on the budget and debt ceiling is going to hurt the USD globally. The accompanying uncertainty is going to make the FED much more cautious about any tapering of QE3. This is all good news for gold and gold miners and bad news for many other commodity and equity groups.

    The US Congress has not passed a budget in 5 years and it's a pretty good bet that it isn't going to happen very soon. That means the FED keeps printing money, the USD keeps hurting and the uncertainty drives investors especially those in Asia to gold. If the US can't fix it's problems it's possible that the rest of the globe could defect from the USD and that's also good for gold. I would buy gold but I would buy the best miners. LONG ABX.
    Oct 17, 2013. 10:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Treads Water: Bland Benchmarks, No Catalysts [View article]
    Interesting article but I see two glaring misconceptions:

    1) If ASPs are falling, revenues must be increasing to offset it. Mr. Smith is confirming the key: ASPs may go down, but corresponding revenues must go up to compensate for it.

    Reality; Revenues do to need to increase to offset lower ASP. Units sold need to increase to maintain or increase revenues.

    2) Dividend growth is an excellent proxy for management and director long-term business optimism.

    Reality; Dividend growth is a good use of profits in excess of those needed for capital expenditures or other investments but it does nothing in increase optimism. Apple produced plenty of optimism before ever paying a dividend.
    Oct 17, 2013. 10:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Has No Answer For Qualcomm Snapdragon [View article]
    No need for Intel to buy Qualcomm. Intel already has all the IP necessary to fill the 14nm gates at 2-4 cores for mobile. Intel just needs to finish LTE correctly and improve GPU incrementally.
    Oct 17, 2013. 05:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Has No Answer For Qualcomm Snapdragon [View article]
    Another nice headline! You might want to fix "On October 26, 2013, Intel stock closed out the trading session at $23.70" since that's 9 days from now.

    Anyway, I'll venture to bet that Intel can take more market share in mobile in the next 24-36 months then Qualcomm can take from PC's and Servers. It's pretty obvious that as we go from 22nm to 14nm there has to be something those extra 50% in gates are going to be occupied by. I venture to guess that in mobile devices and PC's it will NOT be more then 4 cores so that leaves GPU and LTE. Same goes for 14nm to 10nm only it gets more expensive thus the selling units x ASP has to increase dramatically. I think Intel's in the driver's seat with process leadership and filling extra gates with proven IP.
    Oct 17, 2013. 05:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Battle Inside Intel [View article]
    Your thesis;

    1) Intel in mobile is one of many players and can not control their pricing which - even according to Otellini will be a $10 market.
    2) Let's say Intel garners 1BU in 5 years (1/3 market) at $10 = $10B revenue and if lucky 50% margins = $5B GM
    3) Now lets look at case they win Apple or QCOM - which sell $30 chips (they occupy high end of the market). Both sell 1BU. That's 2BU *$15 = $30B revenue and $15B margin. Actually my guess is that QCOM could sell more than Apple.

    has a flaw that Apple and QCOM can continue to get $30 for what Intel sells at $10. Why shouldn't Intel try to get 1.5BU in 5 years for $22.5B revenue ($15 ASP) and $11.25B profits without the distraction of dealing with Apple and Qualcomm. The capex required to go from 22nm to 7nm is going to be huge.
    Oct 17, 2013. 04:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's 64 Bit A7 - What It Really Means [View article]
    Brain K., Intel's CEO "says the A7 is a great 64bit chip and all Intel's chips are already 64bit". What took Apple so long to get there?
    Oct 17, 2013. 04:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Desperately Needs Some Success In Tablet/Mobile Processors [View article]
    Intel already has some success in Android and Windows 8 tablets but does need to continue to win designs that sell to consumers. Intel's all-in-1 and 2-in-1 designs are starting to gain traction in Windows 8.1 and that should grow in 2014. Intel's biggest challenge is in smart phones and the required LTE functionality. It will be interesting to see how 14nm and LTE integrate in silicon in 2014-15. The biggest challenge for all players is going to be the plummeting prices for all mobile devices. MS is very prudent in using Nokia D&S to launch a full range of mobile devices.
    Oct 16, 2013. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Is Making Steady Progress In Tablets But Smartphone Progress Seems A Distant Hope [View article]
    It's still way too early to judge Intel's success with Bay Trail. It was documented in the earnings call that there are 50 Bay Trail design wins but only 10 will be on the shelves by November 1st, 2013. Most Intel based tablets are still shipping with Clover Trail and being discounted heavily like the Acer 8" W3 at Staples for $250

    http://bit.ly/16CKwSo

    It will be Q1 2014 that will tell the story for Intel Android and W8.1 tablets. In the meantime, let's see how low the ASP goes. If a Vizio E390 39" HDTV sells for $400 then 8-10" tablets should be selling for $200-300 and that's going to inflect a whole lot of hurt on traditional ODM's,
    Oct 16, 2013. 09:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Battle Inside Intel [View article]
    Interesting analysis and thesis. However, Coke shouldn't be a foundry for Pepsi. Intel's on the right track with Atom and Quark but investors are too impatient for immediate gratification. It's too late for Intel to foundry for Apple or Qualcomm. Intel needs to figure out the correct product mix of declining ASP chips to achieve the golden ring. It's still a Rubik Cube until Atom reaches 14nm, LTE IP is ready for prime time and Windows 8.n or 9 proves that Wintel can compete in mobile with ARM. In the meantime we'll have to see if Q1 2014 is the turning point for Atom Bay Trail Android and Windows devices.
    Oct 16, 2013. 09:28 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: My Thoughts On Its Earnings [View article]
    Nice article with recap and analysis. I think Intel's done a better then expected job of protecting their high end PC and server segments while moving towards a lower ASP mobile strategy for 2014-15. The impact of Microsoft's Windows 8 vs Windows 7 refresh should not be lost on investors. Intel has a history of guiding conservatively and then beating lowered expectations so Q4 2013 isn't a real problem. Intel's three challenges are 1) Design wins in non-Wintel tables, 2) staying in schedule with 14nm, 3) achieving continuing success with LTE and GPU.
    Oct 16, 2013. 03:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's CEO Discusses Q3 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    A 3 month delay in 14nm to get it right when Intel has over a 1 year lead is not going to be a bad thing. It could actually be a good thing if it increases the adoption of 22nm inventory prior to 14nm reality. It could also be a good thing of it knocks the PS down so we can buy more as the Tea Party also causes the market to sink.
    Oct 16, 2013. 02:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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