Intel: Will Atom Really Cannibalize Core? [View article]
Interesting observations that I've held for almost two years, The real data that obviously needs to be considered is how many more Atoms will Intel sell versus their cannibilzed Core parents. I say that Intel has purposely minipulated their tick tock strategy to delay bringing Atom Silvermont to market until there were enough potential sales to offset any cannibilization. If 3 Atoms at $35 replace one Core at $100 Intel's still 5% ahead in revenue and profits. What do PC buyers want an Lenovo Yoga with Intel Atom Inside or an U310/Z400 with i3-i7 Core Haswell inside or one of each?
Sporting 4 cores and the same GPU platform and manufacturing process as Ivy Bridge CPUs, there's little doubt Intel's (INTC) Bay Trail Atom CPUs (due in Q4) will deliver big performance gains over the current Clover Trail. ReadWrite's Mark Hachman wonders if Bay Trail will be too good, cannibalizing sales of Core CPUs with the help of a relatively resource-efficient Windows 8. Though more demanding users will want Haswell Core systems (esp. since Bay Trail lacks multithreading), will some mainstream users decide Bay Trail is good enough? Intel wants to eventually reach a ~$200 price point for Atom-based touchscreen Android laptops, and a ~$300 price point for Windows systems. [View news story]
I'm pretty sure that Intel's fully aware of the unit volume price relationships between their Atom and Core chips and is way ahead of Mark Hachman. Three Atoms at $35 is better than one Core at $100.
Microsoft Short Sellers Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet [View article]
The PC's Dead? Well no, the PC's Mobile and it now includes smart phones and tablets which already have Intel's Atom Inside running Windows 8 on X86 and Windows Phone 8 on ARM. Windows RT was a mistake. Well no, Windows RT and Windows Phone share their ARM code base and Modern UI to cover the pundits of the Wintel only ecosystem. Intel's going to lose server market share to the "new" micro-server designs. Well, Intel might lose some sales of servers in the WWW cloud to ARM to those anti-X86 pro Linux fanatics but it won't move the market share needle. Microsoft's decade of enterprsise ecosystem investments is just starting to pay off with pushing those technologies into their mobile ecosystem. Same goes for Intel's tick tock into mobile chips with their X86 PC and server designs becoming components in new Atom and iCore SoC's using 22nm 3D manufacturing soon to be 14nm, 10nm and 7nm. ARM's the new MIPS " Microprocessor without Interlocked Pipeline Stages" and PowerPC "Performance Optimization With Enhanced RISC" . Can't wait to see XBox720 serving up Intel's 4K TV services.
Microsoft Is Too Expensive For This Moment In Time [View article]
"That earnings report served to remind investors that Microsoft remains today a mainstay in computing, and an important player in several other markets, including gaming and Internet search."
Not really The earnings report told everyone that the PC's Mobile and not dead and Windows 7 plus Windows 8 still owns 85% of the PC markets. Sure, we're seeing lots of smart phones and tablets being sold to consumers for browsing and viewing but there's still plenty of room for WinArm phones and Wintel smart phones and tablets. I wouldn't back up the truck just yet but I would dump the contents either. Microsoft's XBox 720 May announcement will be interesting, Nokia's new Lumia's too and that's all before June's Surface 2 and W8.1 previews. Lomg AAPL, INTC, MSFT and NOK.
Who Will End Up Staying With The Windows Phone? [View article]
Nokia owns the Windows Phone market and Microsoft owns Nokia. It's almost a deal made in heaven for both enterprises if 1) Microsoft fixes Windows 8, 2) Nokia continues to roll out winning Lumias, 3) Intel's Atom Silvermont delivers for smart phones and tablets, 4) Intel's iCore Haswell delivers for Windows 8 tablets and Ultrabooks. Microsoft can support Nokia for as long as it takes even if they have to take a debt with convertible to equity position. 2013-2014 will be the most interesting period for all concerned including Apple, ARMH, Dell, Google, HP, Intel, Lenovo, Microsoft, Nokia and Qualcomm.
Barrick-China Deal Big Win For Gold: USD Rise Veils Precious Metals Sector Strength [View article]
GS loves to minipulate asset markets by making calls to stampede the herds. Calling for a gold price of $1550 (2013) to $1350 (2014) which gives us an average price of $1450 is really safe unless gold goes back to $1200 or $1800. ABX has been the casualty of a really nice string of bad news items; GS ABG and gold price downgrades, Chile and Dominican mine issues and overloaded debt on balance sheet. This all makes ABX a really interesting investment at $20-21 which a recovery to $23-25 and selling Jan 2014 $23 calls at $2 for possible returns of 10-30%.
Intel Needs ARM: Strength Through Togetherness - A British Viewpoint [View article]
Intel already had ARM, StrongArm, which I think it bought from DEC in 1997 which I think was sold to Marvell later. Nonetheless, Intel's tick tock strategy is not the holy grail but it doesn't relentlessly move decrease the gate size and increase the chip complexity. ARM and their licensees have created the market for another billion chips that require low wattage and high performance. Intel's strategy will finally offer chips for mobile PC's that are very competitive with those using ARM's IP. It's going to take some time but Intel's now in the mobile game with both Atom Silvermont and iCore Haswell. Microsoft's Windows 8 has been waiting for those chips while Windows Phone has proven that Windows can compete using ARM chips. Long AAPL. INTC, MSFT and NOK. I would like to short ARMH but it's not worth the effort.
Blah, blah "buy and hold" died in 2000 and again in 2008. If you use cost averaging and buy increasing number of shares you could've already made money on Nokia's swing from $1.70 to $4.70 almost regardless of you're initial entry point. The question now is are we looking at a $5 or $8 stock selling for $3.60 PS? We'll probably know the answer by the end of July when Nokia reports Apr-Jun 2013 Asha and Lumia numbers. If they sell 7-8 million Lumias we're looking at an $8 stock.
I'll Buy Nokia If The Company Dumps Windows And Elop [View article]
Do you guys really think that Elop and Nokia have the option of switching to Android before the Microsoft Nokia relationship agreement has been fulfilled? That would cost Nokia at least $2 billion in software R&D and transition costs which they already have accrued by dumping the Symbian, Meemo and other failed OS attempts.
Why Nokia Should Stick With Microsoft [View article]
Let's see maps, $1 billion a year in support fees, $1 billion a year in software R&D savings, Microsoft ecosystem, Microsoft advertising support, Microsoft applications like Exchange, Lynx and Skype, Microsoft IDE (Visual Studio), Microsoft's 1 billion Windows users, Microsoft's enterprise ecosystem, Microsoft's OS differentiation as a real enterprise OS, not some Unix shareware, 85% of the Windows Phone products and those are just what comes to me in the last 2 minutes.
Dear AGM Investors: Nokia's Future Is With WP, Not Android [View article]
@Abu - Nokia investors did not demand Nokia switch to Android. A couple of Nokia buy-and-hold investors are impatient because they haven't had the sense to average their Nokia PS cost while Nokia adjusts their product strategy to Windows Phone. Android would only be an option to Nokia once their Microsoft agreement for $1 billion in support fees expires and if at that time support dual OS platforms would be economically beneficial. Least we not forget Nokia is saving about $1 billion a year in R&D that they wasted on prior impotent Symbian and Linux efforts.
Why Nokia Should Stick With Microsoft [View article]
Android would not have been a smarter choice. Android is nothing but an advertising virus spread by Google and Samsung already has an alternative in case Google decides to play games with Motorola. Nokia made the only decision left to them and has to play the cards as they are dealt. Investors, especially the uninformed, always love to be Monday morning quarterbacks while sitting in the grandstands.
Intel's been just fine over the last 10 years if you start buying when it drops to 20 or lower loading up until it breaks out above 22-24. The last time I got out too early but won't make that mistake this time since Intel's Atom Silvermont will fix their mobile latency of the last 3-5 years. The real question is can Intel complete their strategy before the US economy has to have interest rate raised to cool it off.
Nokia Vs. Apple And Samsung - Observations From A Vacation In Italy [View article]
Agree wit observations. Larger smart phone devices. 5" and up, and smaller tablets, 8" and less, are merging to provide mobile multi-media viewing that's less ideal with 4" and 10" devices. That coupled with the awesome graphics coming online from new ARM and X86 is going to transform the mobile PC into a mobile TV already cherished by younger consumers. I think Apple and Microsoft/Nokia have an advantage over Google/Samsung in the long run due to much less fracturing of the ecosystems.
Intel: Will Atom Really Cannibalize Core? [View article]
Sporting 4 cores and the same GPU platform and manufacturing process as Ivy Bridge CPUs, there's little doubt Intel's (INTC) Bay Trail Atom CPUs (due in Q4) will deliver big performance gains over the current Clover Trail. ReadWrite's Mark Hachman wonders if Bay Trail will be too good, cannibalizing sales of Core CPUs with the help of a relatively resource-efficient Windows 8. Though more demanding users will want Haswell Core systems (esp. since Bay Trail lacks multithreading), will some mainstream users decide Bay Trail is good enough? Intel wants to eventually reach a ~$200 price point for Atom-based touchscreen Android laptops, and a ~$300 price point for Windows systems. [View news story]
Intel Share Price Approaching Overvalued Territory [View article]
Microsoft Short Sellers Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet [View article]
Microsoft Is Too Expensive For This Moment In Time [View article]
Not really The earnings report told everyone that the PC's Mobile and not dead and Windows 7 plus Windows 8 still owns 85% of the PC markets. Sure, we're seeing lots of smart phones and tablets being sold to consumers for browsing and viewing but there's still plenty of room for WinArm phones and Wintel smart phones and tablets. I wouldn't back up the truck just yet but I would dump the contents either. Microsoft's XBox 720 May announcement will be interesting, Nokia's new Lumia's too and that's all before June's Surface 2 and W8.1 previews. Lomg AAPL, INTC, MSFT and NOK.
Who Will End Up Staying With The Windows Phone? [View article]
Barrick-China Deal Big Win For Gold: USD Rise Veils Precious Metals Sector Strength [View article]
Intel Needs ARM: Strength Through Togetherness - A British Viewpoint [View article]
Elop's Nokia, A Portfolio Crusher? [View article]
I'll Buy Nokia If The Company Dumps Windows And Elop [View article]
Why Nokia Should Stick With Microsoft [View article]
Dear AGM Investors: Nokia's Future Is With WP, Not Android [View article]
Why Nokia Should Stick With Microsoft [View article]
The Intel On This Tech Stock [View article]
Nokia Vs. Apple And Samsung - Observations From A Vacation In Italy [View article]