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  • If You Listen Carefully, The Bankers Are Actually Telling Us What Is Going To Happen Next [View article]
    President Bush'es Home Ownership Initiative started, then accelerated the downturn which led to the worse recession since the Great Depression. Bush wanted to buy votes by expanding home ownership, especially with the minority groups and regardless of whether the mortgagors can afford the payments or not.

    The banks played along. Flipping houses was good business for them.

    Bush pushed hard to expand home ownership, especially among minority groups
    Bush did foresee the danger posed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage finance giants. The president spent years pushing a recalcitrant Congress to toughen regulation of the companies, but was unwilling to compromise when his former Treasury secretary wanted to cut a deal. And the regulator Bush chose to oversee them - an old school buddy - pronounced the companies sound even as they headed toward insolvency.

    The full article here:
    Feb 10, 2015. 01:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Beware The Bounce [View article]
    Yup, this is my opinion too, a dead cat re-bounce, likely manipulated by and for the benefit of punters and speculators.

    Highly unlikely that the Saudis would surrender market share and weaken its erstwhile stranglehold on US oil consumption, it will fight hand and nail to keep US dependent to one degree or another. On the flip side, the US should do all that's reasonable and possible not to be so dependent on those Saudis ever again.
    Feb 7, 2015. 03:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Leggett & Platt's Strong Dividend Is Set To Continue [View article]
    I did a casual comparison of yield vs EBITDA of following industrial stocks:
    LB 1.80 2.21B
    WHR 1.70 1.97B
    VFC 1.80 2.05B
    PH 2.00 1.89B
    CMI 2.10 2.42B
    EMR 1.83 5.002B
    UTX 1.51 11.95B
    LEG 3.10 443.5M
    MMM 2.20 8.47B
    WSO 2.30 310.82M
    UNP 1.70 10.23B

    Granted there are big differences in EBITDA betw these companies, with WSO closest to LEG. But none of them come close to the LEG yield of ~3.1%

    On top of that is the impressively competent and pro-active management and the organic revenue growth.

    I think Zack may be onto something, recommending a buy-rating on LEG. My guess is the market will beat down the yield to below 3% before the price per share stabilizes.

    All figures from Yahoo Finance.

    I am long on LEG.
    Nov 12, 2014. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Chevron [View article]
    Good article for a solid company, so I went long on CVX.
    What's a "screaming buy" for CVX though?
    Oct 19, 2014. 03:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: McDonald's Weak August Sales And Rising Costs - My Thesis Confirmed [View article]
    Hi and thanks for you analysis.

    I don't think MCD has ever cut its dividend, but I think we should look at the payout ratio as well as the P/E ratio.
    All figures from Finance.Yahoo.Com
    POR = 3.24 / 5.50 -> 58.9% is still within comfort zone for a company like MCD.
    PER = 16.67 seems quite reasonable
    But I agree it's not a buy until it drops below $90
    Sep 9, 2014. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Nothing Unusual About The Latest (Sharp) Rally [View article]
    Then again, since the Great Recession, when has the Fed intervened to this extent with QE-ad absurdum and an artificially low interest rate environment that discourage honest savings and encourage wanton speculation?

    That and "fast trading".
    Aug 28, 2014. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leggett & Platt: Evaluating Its Dividend [View article]
    Reinvesting dividend is the hard part.
    Aug 5, 2014. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tofu McNuggets to the rescue for McDonald's Japan [View news story]
    TOFU !?!
    Jul 29, 2014. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yum, McDonald's ensnared in another China food safety scandal [View news story]
    I am sure both MCD and YUM want a far more sanitary environment, and so do the local Chinese governments which, hopefully, have learned their lesson with H1N5.

    But for the mainland Chinese, it's a steep learning curve, they need someone to be there, in situ, to tell them what to do and what not to do. It's a "cultural" thing. There is no empowered regulatory Health and Safety Department to speak of.

    I am aware that the OSI Group is owned by a USAnain company based in, I believe, Aurora, Ill.

    It is a huge market that MCD cannot ignore. Short term pain for long term gain.
    Jul 24, 2014. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yum, McDonald's ensnared in another China food safety scandal [View news story]
    Imports may be more expensive, but clean, unadulterated meat products is a good selling point and I believe many PRC-Chinese will go for it. Anecdotal evidence suggest many PRC-Chinese prefer imported food over local products.

    I think MCD should do a market study in China. Would you pay a few more yuan for a sandwich if the meat is imported from USofA?
    Jul 22, 2014. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yum, McDonald's ensnared in another China food safety scandal [View news story]
    Why isn't MCD-China importing meat from USofA rather than sourcing them from PRC-Chinese companies when both MCD and YUM know full well that PRC-Chinese companies cannot be relied on to do the right thing?

    I think SYSCO can help out there with exporting clean, unadulterated meat products from USofA.
    Jul 21, 2014. 11:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The McDonald's Upgrade Faces 2 Major Risks [View article]
    The beef market is an oligopsony, MickeyD has some pull there where price of beef is concerned.

    I don't mind paying a few lousy cents more for my burgers if that means the kids can take home half a decent pay at the end of the day. These kids will probably need to spend all them to buy necessary items, unlike Mr 1%-ter up there.
    Jan 10, 2014. 01:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Can McDonald's Do To Catch-Up? [View article]
    Same here. Also, they are too spicy hot for my taste and they look like they have been standing there for a while, not the least appetizing.

    The only new thing I liked were the McWraps. I also miss those big Angus burgers with Swiss cheese and mushrooms.
    Dec 12, 2013. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Can McDonald's Do To Catch-Up? [View article]
    Easily solved. MickeyD does a "Goldman Sachs" and get some "influential" people to do marketing.

    Chinese communists are nothing more than frustrated capitalists, they like a good RoI just like you or me.
    Dec 12, 2013. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Can McDonald's Do To Catch-Up? [View article]
    Once more, where APMEA and esp China is concerned, I think MickeyD should import its own meat from USofA and advertize that blatantly. I think that would come across well and will be a good selling point in China.
    Dec 11, 2013. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment