In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
The way I look at it there's sort of a psychological "mean reversion" you have to bet on. You're right, there's no guarantee that apple mania will ever return, but based on how susceptible the market is to changing emotions, it seems likely that people's favor will eventually return to the company as long as they keep going the way they're going. Right now, the overall market feeling seems to be "apple has lost their innovative edge and is becoming microsoft," and I predict this will start to morph into an optimistic "apple is going to rule china's tech landscape" once the "smart money" starts noticing the exponential growth there.
A little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been cautious about FQ2 (March quarter) iPhone builds, and thinks the consensus for FQ2 iPhone sales has fallen to around 37M. The U.S. team thinks Nakane's estimates (45M builds in FQ1, 28M-30M in FQ2) implies upside to his FQ1 sales forecast, and downside to his FQ2 forecast. Meanwhile, his forecast for 17M-19M FQ2 iPad builds implies upside to an FQ2 forecast for sales of 15M. [View news story]
This has to be the easiest stock to trade in existence. People on wall street spread rumors about declining sales giving reasons that don't quite stand up to scrutiny, but are just believable enough to send the stock down. Apple reveals its earnings, prices go back up. rinse, repeat. I'm not the conspiracy theory type but its hard to believe that there isn't a little tinkering going on to make the stock price more attractive for the smart money. Or maybe people are just prone to mass fits of irrational behavior, im not an expert.
Indeed, "liberal keynesian economics" always seems to be the source of government debt according to people with no memory of where that money was actually spent. It makes one wonder, do these people think there was no deficit before the financial crisis? Do they have no knowledge of recent economic history?
Elderly people did not "live within their means," they voted for politicians who spent all of their money before racking up a big credit card bill for my generation. America is a democracy and that means our problems are squarely the fault of the elderly who had the time, influence, and power to build a better society, but decided instead to loot the wealth and reputation of this once great country.
Alipay Fiasco Underscores the Expropriation Risk of China Investments [View article]
Perhaps its not an ethnic issue but there is undeniably a cultural element which cannot be wholly attributed to the fact that it is a rising nation. The fact that, as you write, a Chinese entrepreneur could "prevail upon friendly (to him) state authorities to make life hard for you" has little to do with the country's status as a developing country, or as an authoritarian one for that matter.
I think its a culture where friendships, relationships and even the concept of "fairness" are all very differently defined. To me, the implication of this is that even if they do gain a much greater stake in protecting property rights, it will continue to be defined in terms of protecting Chinese property from foreigners. And if American businesses and perhaps even culture don't adapt i think we will be forced to sit back and watch the 21st c. unfold as an undoubtedly eventful and at times dirty economic and political battle between China and India.
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
A little more on Deutsche/Apple: The firm notes Japanese analyst Yasuo Nakane has long been cautious about FQ2 (March quarter) iPhone builds, and thinks the consensus for FQ2 iPhone sales has fallen to around 37M. The U.S. team thinks Nakane's estimates (45M builds in FQ1, 28M-30M in FQ2) implies upside to his FQ1 sales forecast, and downside to his FQ2 forecast. Meanwhile, his forecast for 17M-19M FQ2 iPad builds implies upside to an FQ2 forecast for sales of 15M. [View news story]
The Keynesian Depression [View article]
The Keynesian Depression [View article]
Alipay Fiasco Underscores the Expropriation Risk of China Investments [View article]
I think its a culture where friendships, relationships and even the concept of "fairness" are all very differently defined. To me, the implication of this is that even if they do gain a much greater stake in protecting property rights, it will continue to be defined in terms of protecting Chinese property from foreigners. And if American businesses and perhaps even culture don't adapt i think we will be forced to sit back and watch the 21st c. unfold as an undoubtedly eventful and at times dirty economic and political battle between China and India.