You're the guy who recently wrote an article about 'why I now hate Apple'.
Am I right?
So why would I think this present article is anything other than another excuse to get digs in at Apple?
You're entitled to your opinions, of course. But as an avowed Apple-hater, you disbar yourself from being regarded as objective.
For what it's worth, I think the iPhone 5 along with iOS 6 will indeed earn the appellation 'Amazing' for its technological prowess, the sophisticated manufacturing processes required to bring it to fruition, and its sublime design. And of course, a phone selling tens of millions probably does deserve to be called 'amazing'.
Has Research In Motion Become A Bargain? [View article]
@61morgan
I've made a note of your prediction and I'll be re-visiting this post at 3 monthly intervals to inform our readers of what transpired.
The idea that iOS is old and dying sounds to me like a storyline for a fairytale set in Waterloo. One where the iPhone never existed and Balsillie and Lazarides rule a keyboard kingdom where RIM rules.
There are those, of course, who imagine QNX to be some sort of super advanced OS instead of which it is a solid vanilla Linux distro with no particular merits over other good Linux distros. On top of this vanilla distro RIM has to build a huge app framework (Apple's most recent iOS update brought 1500 NEW API's to developers... that's 1500 additions to the massive framework in existence).
And then of course RIM has to sort out the fundamental architectural problem with integrating a multi-device per user scenario with its BES infrastructure which is hard coded to deal with a single device per user.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
@ Herr Hansa
The release by Nokia of their new Windows 8 phones and the subsequent muted reception by the market illustrates, I think, just how hard it's going to be for RIM to make an impact with BB10.
Undeniably Nokia/Microsoft is a much more powerful entity than RIM and yet, despite their best efforts, it looks as though their new boat is already taking on water and it's only just out of dry dock. Who can tell what will happen when it leaves the lee and gets out into competitive oceans.
Because of Microsoft's proven willingness to pour good money after bad (a decade in the case of XBox for example) in order to try to get profitability, it may well be they will eventually succeed, but RIM could be out of money by 2013 with no possibility to continue to fund BB10 if it doesn't take off like a thoroughbred.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
@Herr Hansa
As RIMM's largest individual investor (I think) one might imagine Watsa has information the rest of us don't have and that he's using this to make better informed investment decisions in regard to RIM the company.
But that might not be the case.
Psychological studies show quite consistently that people kid themselves on what motivates them to take action, so that, for example, a person may believe he/she is being entirely rational and detached when it comes to buying and selling stocks, whilst accepting that his/her decision to support a particular sports team is more likely to be emotional, and that performance of the team can be explained away when it's bad and will not affect loyalty. In other words, a person is likely to think they can have different ways to 'believe' which they can control.
But we're not detached and rational beings, most of us. Empathy, wishful thinking, dreams, hopes, desire to be proven right, love of the underdog, need to feel different, and so on, play their roles and influence our actions, often subconsciously. Watsa (unless he's a sociopath, where such emotions are largely missing) is no more immune to these influences than everybody else. He may well continue to back RIM because he loves the company, or its founders, or its people or because it's a Canadian David against Korean and American Goliaths. Who can tell?
He may have bought insurance cover against a loss. Who knows?
All we can do is make our own assessment of RIM's prospects and spend our own money accordingly.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
Thank you for your thoughtful and thought provoking response.
I guess we are polar opposites in our approach. You use charts and history and I use my nose and my eyes to assess the value of a potential investment. I do look at figures, but only after my sniff-n-tell exercise indicates a potential investment, and then to act as a Go/No Go switch. In other words, I'd only back a chart analysis for a company I'd already assessed as a prospect.
I don't think I am gambling any more than you are. It all comes down to judgment in the end, yours will be based on looking at the charts, mine on what's in the wind. You might be a crappy chart reader in which case all your analysis will be for nought, and I might be a very bad sniffer. Sounds like you're a good reader.
I do think your references to the past, comparing Apple at 7 to RIM today, are fundamentally less than useful, because the environment and circumstances then are radically different from today, and just because Apple made a spectacular leap forward back then provides no basis whatsoever for speculating RIM can do the same today.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
In the longterm we'll all be dead. My horizon for Apple shares I hold is 2 years, reviewed every 6 months. (For RIM, were I to find myself with shares in that company, the horizon would be measured in hours).
Demand for Apple products has nothing whatsoever to do with parabola. These are artificial constructs which may, or may not, accord with what happened, looking back.
Analysing the company from the perspectives I mentioned, customer loyalty, broad product excellence, proven management ability to wring profit, expansion into currently very large vacuums, inability of a competitor to likely gain an exclusive and significant technological advantage, Apple's mastery of the supply chain, first class retail and support structures, proven management capability to maintain momentum... well, based on these, I am confident my money is in good hands.
The one genuine threat to share value that I see is the market's continuing attachment to irrational pricing. If analysts continue to expect unrealistic growth from Apple and plunge the price whenever irrationally elevated expectations are not met, then the price will suffer, quite independently of the fundamentals. Their obsession with 'growth' as the main proxy for Apple's value is, to my mind, stupid.
I shake my head at the analyst's assessment for Amazon, as a further example of stupidity, where a company working on 1 - 2% margins is given a P/E multiple over 200.
My hope is that analysts will come to see Apple financials at lower growth levels do not indicate significance, but simply a reflection that as you grow larger, the same level of success generates a lower growth %, and value the company based on a wider set of financials.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
Well, for a start, you're a guy who only sees a downside to Apple.
That's enough analysis for me to conclude you're detached from the reality I experience.
Apple's got hundreds of millions of individual customers who consistently express a VERY high satisfaction with their purchase and with the support they get, and a commitment to make their next purchase an Apple too. If that augurs for a downturn....
I could go on about the foot traffic in every Apple store I see, about the extensive patent portfolio covering a range of future product possibilities, about Apple's massive growth potential in every market in which it operates (with the exception of dedicated mp3 players), about their impressive position on quality components, manufacturing facilities and logistics which gives them a strong edge on delivering mass volumes quickly, their proven ability to earn larger profits for the same revenue compared to the competition, the fact that there's almost no technology a competitor can use that Apple can't use too... but what's the point, the chartists have got their little spreadsheets and smaller minds and, like haruspices of old, they divine the future.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
RIM supporters like to imagine they can compete with Apple, which only goes to show the suffocating hubris from the deadly Balsillie/Lazarides era has clearly not yet been exorcised from the RIMsphere.
The reality is that if a buyer chooses a non-Apple device he will most likely decide between Samsung and a Microsoft powered device. THIS is the competitive arena for RIM. Can RIM muscle in against Samsung and Microsoft/Nokia?
Positioning RIM against Apple would be a mistake. They have a much smaller chance of success compared to competing against weaker companies.
And referring to Samsung and Microsoft as 'weaker' companies just goes to show HOW hard it's going to be for RIM.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
Amazing how these new names gather so many Likes so quickly.
That's the sort of spooky miracle the like of which would be necessary to pull RIM out of the fire it set itself, all on its own, under the guidance of those bozos Balsillie and Lazarides.
The share price sputters around $7 as the last convulsions of a doomed company excite the eternal optimists that all will come right.
I saw an ad in a carrier storefront the other day screaming LATEST BLACKBERRY. Forensic examination, however, failed to disclose the slightest difference from the previous Blackberry.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
A lot of self generated Like ticking going on. Very boring. Fools nobody.
You don't need to 'want' RIM dead to conclude it's likely headed that way. Miracles can, of course, happen and one may indeed manifest itself in Waterloo. That's about the measure of what it will take.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
Same old same old tub thumping. Likely a discordant accompaniment to the Funeral March (Frédéric Chopin's Piano Sonata No. 2 in B-flat minor, Op. 35, 3rd movement)
Apple: One More Thing [View article]
Am I right?
So why would I think this present article is anything other than another excuse to get digs in at Apple?
You're entitled to your opinions, of course. But as an avowed Apple-hater, you disbar yourself from being regarded as objective.
For what it's worth, I think the iPhone 5 along with iOS 6 will indeed earn the appellation 'Amazing' for its technological prowess, the sophisticated manufacturing processes required to bring it to fruition, and its sublime design. And of course, a phone selling tens of millions probably does deserve to be called 'amazing'.
Has Research In Motion Become A Bargain? [View article]
I've made a note of your prediction and I'll be re-visiting this post at 3 monthly intervals to inform our readers of what transpired.
The idea that iOS is old and dying sounds to me like a storyline for a fairytale set in Waterloo. One where the iPhone never existed and Balsillie and Lazarides rule a keyboard kingdom where RIM rules.
There are those, of course, who imagine QNX to be some sort of super advanced OS instead of which it is a solid vanilla Linux distro with no particular merits over other good Linux distros. On top of this vanilla distro RIM has to build a huge app framework (Apple's most recent iOS update brought 1500 NEW API's to developers... that's 1500 additions to the massive framework in existence).
And then of course RIM has to sort out the fundamental architectural problem with integrating a multi-device per user scenario with its BES infrastructure which is hard coded to deal with a single device per user.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
[Remarkable how these new names accumulate Likes so fast. Another miracle from Waterloo, obviously. Nobody's fooled.]
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
(I know, I know... bitchy.)
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
The release by Nokia of their new Windows 8 phones and the subsequent muted reception by the market illustrates, I think, just how hard it's going to be for RIM to make an impact with BB10.
Undeniably Nokia/Microsoft is a much more powerful entity than RIM and yet, despite their best efforts, it looks as though their new boat is already taking on water and it's only just out of dry dock. Who can tell what will happen when it leaves the lee and gets out into competitive oceans.
Because of Microsoft's proven willingness to pour good money after bad (a decade in the case of XBox for example) in order to try to get profitability, it may well be they will eventually succeed, but RIM could be out of money by 2013 with no possibility to continue to fund BB10 if it doesn't take off like a thoroughbred.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
As RIMM's largest individual investor (I think) one might imagine Watsa has information the rest of us don't have and that he's using this to make better informed investment decisions in regard to RIM the company.
But that might not be the case.
Psychological studies show quite consistently that people kid themselves on what motivates them to take action, so that, for example, a person may believe he/she is being entirely rational and detached when it comes to buying and selling stocks, whilst accepting that his/her decision to support a particular sports team is more likely to be emotional, and that performance of the team can be explained away when it's bad and will not affect loyalty. In other words, a person is likely to think they can have different ways to 'believe' which they can control.
But we're not detached and rational beings, most of us. Empathy, wishful thinking, dreams, hopes, desire to be proven right, love of the underdog, need to feel different, and so on, play their roles and influence our actions, often subconsciously. Watsa (unless he's a sociopath, where such emotions are largely missing) is no more immune to these influences than everybody else. He may well continue to back RIM because he loves the company, or its founders, or its people or because it's a Canadian David against Korean and American Goliaths. Who can tell?
He may have bought insurance cover against a loss. Who knows?
All we can do is make our own assessment of RIM's prospects and spend our own money accordingly.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
I guess we are polar opposites in our approach. You use charts and history and I use my nose and my eyes to assess the value of a potential investment. I do look at figures, but only after my sniff-n-tell exercise indicates a potential investment, and then to act as a Go/No Go switch. In other words, I'd only back a chart analysis for a company I'd already assessed as a prospect.
I don't think I am gambling any more than you are. It all comes down to judgment in the end, yours will be based on looking at the charts, mine on what's in the wind. You might be a crappy chart reader in which case all your analysis will be for nought, and I might be a very bad sniffer. Sounds like you're a good reader.
I do think your references to the past, comparing Apple at 7 to RIM today, are fundamentally less than useful, because the environment and circumstances then are radically different from today, and just because Apple made a spectacular leap forward back then provides no basis whatsoever for speculating RIM can do the same today.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
Demand for Apple products has nothing whatsoever to do with parabola. These are artificial constructs which may, or may not, accord with what happened, looking back.
Analysing the company from the perspectives I mentioned, customer loyalty, broad product excellence, proven management ability to wring profit, expansion into currently very large vacuums, inability of a competitor to likely gain an exclusive and significant technological advantage, Apple's mastery of the supply chain, first class retail and support structures, proven management capability to maintain momentum... well, based on these, I am confident my money is in good hands.
The one genuine threat to share value that I see is the market's continuing attachment to irrational pricing. If analysts continue to expect unrealistic growth from Apple and plunge the price whenever irrationally elevated expectations are not met, then the price will suffer, quite independently of the fundamentals. Their obsession with 'growth' as the main proxy for Apple's value is, to my mind, stupid.
I shake my head at the analyst's assessment for Amazon, as a further example of stupidity, where a company working on 1 - 2% margins is given a P/E multiple over 200.
My hope is that analysts will come to see Apple financials at lower growth levels do not indicate significance, but simply a reflection that as you grow larger, the same level of success generates a lower growth %, and value the company based on a wider set of financials.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
That's enough analysis for me to conclude you're detached from the reality I experience.
Apple's got hundreds of millions of individual customers who consistently express a VERY high satisfaction with their purchase and with the support they get, and a commitment to make their next purchase an Apple too. If that augurs for a downturn....
I could go on about the foot traffic in every Apple store I see, about the extensive patent portfolio covering a range of future product possibilities, about Apple's massive growth potential in every market in which it operates (with the exception of dedicated mp3 players), about their impressive position on quality components, manufacturing facilities and logistics which gives them a strong edge on delivering mass volumes quickly, their proven ability to earn larger profits for the same revenue compared to the competition, the fact that there's almost no technology a competitor can use that Apple can't use too... but what's the point, the chartists have got their little spreadsheets and smaller minds and, like haruspices of old, they divine the future.
We will see. My money's on Apple.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
The reality is that if a buyer chooses a non-Apple device he will most likely decide between Samsung and a Microsoft powered device. THIS is the competitive arena for RIM. Can RIM muscle in against Samsung and Microsoft/Nokia?
Positioning RIM against Apple would be a mistake. They have a much smaller chance of success compared to competing against weaker companies.
And referring to Samsung and Microsoft as 'weaker' companies just goes to show HOW hard it's going to be for RIM.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
That's the sort of spooky miracle the like of which would be necessary to pull RIM out of the fire it set itself, all on its own, under the guidance of those bozos Balsillie and Lazarides.
The share price sputters around $7 as the last convulsions of a doomed company excite the eternal optimists that all will come right.
I saw an ad in a carrier storefront the other day screaming LATEST BLACKBERRY. Forensic examination, however, failed to disclose the slightest difference from the previous Blackberry.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
You don't need to 'want' RIM dead to conclude it's likely headed that way. Miracles can, of course, happen and one may indeed manifest itself in Waterloo. That's about the measure of what it will take.
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
Why Betting On Research In Motion's Turnaround Isn't Crazy [View article]
P.S. I have some gorgeous oceanfront Arizona property going cheap. It could be a dream come true for the right person. Interested?