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kashtan

kashtan
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  • Perspectives On Friday's Sell Off [View article]
    Jezus TakeFive, why would you be buying ADI. Don't you see (unless I am missing something) that ADI is a poster example of this market manipulation? Did you see their financials and compared stock chart? 2010 was their strongest over the past 4 years yet the stock goes up by 50%. IMHO govt manipulates the market to get people used to idea that current inflated P/Es are a norm. So when they pull the plug and P/Es drop by 30% it will be considered as a 'good deal' and market won't collapse. Unless you are a day trader there are only a handful of long term stories... So whoever channels money into market between now and SP@1400 is a fool IMO.
    Jan 26 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Underestimate The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Jezus Christ! Mercenary! People like you actually trade? Are kids nowadays responsible for market runup? Where - on earth - do you see correlation between economy expansion - currency level and price increases??? Dindn't they teach you that inflation is - indeed - raising prices over the same commodity over time? Why on earth should price of egg grow in non-inflationary environment? Growing - expanding - economy is about paying more (dollars) for the same goods and services OR is it more money circulating in the economy BECAUSE of more goods and services in offering??? What - on earth - did they teach at school? Are you just some sort of 15 years old intern? Kid with computer and theory of games knowledge so you can PLAY stock market and currencies?
    Nov 30 01:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Experiment That Is Being Carried Out In Japan [View article]
    "A 3% inflation rate also offers appropriate incentives to be involved in equities or expanding a business rather than more passive investing in the fixed income market."

    Geez, what business do you have in telling people what should they participate in? This is the most dangerous type of 'economists'.

    Take it from another angle - why should you invest i a company which doesn't pay you dividends? Say 10%? for the risk you take that you finance this company?
    May 14 05:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: A broad-based surge in stocks propelled the Dow nearly 100 points higher than its previous all-time high close, led by financials, industrials and techs, sectors which underperformed yesterday. The move is seen as a strong fundamental signal on top of solid readings on U.S. manufacturing and services. With today's gains met by such deep rank-and-file skepticism, more upside could remain ahead. [View news story]
    ... until you realize that a gallon of milk is 10 bucks, your nominal wage stuck at 2007 level and you have no money left to pay off your devalued mortgage and so loose your house... it does go both ways...
    Mar 5 09:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: A broad-based surge in stocks propelled the Dow nearly 100 points higher than its previous all-time high close, led by financials, industrials and techs, sectors which underperformed yesterday. The move is seen as a strong fundamental signal on top of solid readings on U.S. manufacturing and services. With today's gains met by such deep rank-and-file skepticism, more upside could remain ahead. [View news story]
    There is some level of regret sitting this out among us, no doubt. However, the truth is that the FED QEs with ZIRP (whichever name you put on that) is a direct debt monetization and something in flat and outright contradiction to what they taught us as kids and in schools, colleges and what all economists were preaching until now.

    We were taught and preached that money supply needs to be controlled, that no one can print money out of the blue, that Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe were great examples of failed money printing.

    Then this government in symphony with central bank decides otherwise - to the disbelieve of great part of population - that they can print money out of the blue.

    Under normal circumstances the responsible ones would have picked the cherries out of failed economy and steer the economy and the society in the right balanced direction.

    The people in power, however, decided otherwise - to save the status quo where gamble is rewarded over prudent financial decision.

    I mean how can you invest in the economy which relies on debt monetization? Where government says it needs more money and so they will print new money?

    Under normal circumstances the 10 year interest rates should have been 10% because no one would be willing to lend money to government with such deficit and trust me - under pressure the things would go much faster in the right direction.

    Ehh, whatever...
    Mar 5 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $13.81 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $54.51B (+18% Y/Y) misses by $220M. 47.8M iPhones, 22.9M iPads, 4.1M Macs, 12.7M iPods. Expects FQ2 revenue of $41B-$43B, below $45.6B consensus. Shares -4.3% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Yep, the margins spell trouble for short term stock price... The thinking is going to be

    'gee, if in their strongest quarter with full length of new products Iphone5 and Ipad mini and yet they getting lower margins ?!!! What's next? This should have been their BANNER quarter!!'
    Jan 23 04:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • September Nonfarm Payrolls: +114K vs. consensus +115K, +142K previous (revised from 96K). Unemployment rate 7.8% vs. consensus 8.2%, 8.1% previous. [View news story]
    8.2 wasn't accurate either... people just got used to it.
    Oct 5 02:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are Undervalued By Over 50% [View article]
    All good points raised about interest of carriers and subsidies. There might be a regulatory issue in the future, some 'consumer protection' cr%&^p, which would mandate wireless carriers offer wireless service and subsidy separately. Under the notion that not everyone wants subsidized phone and yet they still (those unsubsidized consumers) subsidize subsidized customers and/or they pay for the value not received. This is happening in Europe and it is going to take one class action here in US to happen. So watch out. Once margins go down so goes the P.

    Using the commodity metrics the iPhone is a quarter the size of iPad yet it costs the double? Something has to give (me thinking:-).
    Apr 26 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Are Undervalued By Over 50% [View article]
    I'd say all it takes to get AAPL into equilibrium (=true value of company) is to get wireless carriers decrease or stop subsidize smartphone purchases (like they did in Spain). That's where the bulk of AAPLs incredible 40+% profit margin lies. This is unhealthy for a hardware company to have and it only spells troubles going forward.

    Unsubsidized iPhone is $649 vs. subsidized $199? How long will it take existing iPhone 4 users to get that their iPhone is good for another 4 years while they don't want to pay elevated monthly carrier costs to sponsor iPhone 5 and 6 owners?

    With 17% profit margin new iPhone 4s 16GB is going to cost $380. Not a killer difference to $199 especially if your plan is going to cost you $40 per month and not $70.

    And with 17% PM AAPLs recent Q revs are 23.4 instead of $40 and net profit -$6B (OMG it's a loss!! :-).

    So that's why AAPL is kinda wild card.
    Apr 25 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting a Damper on the Big March Job Report Celebration [View article]
    If only the 'number of jobs created' was a hard data and not a survey... First time claims are hard data and personally I find it difficult to believe that 1.2 millions of jobs lost (hard data - filings) were offset with 1.4 millions (survey data) of jobs created... based on the survey of a fraction of these 1.4 mil jobs... It's so easy to skew surveys based on where you ask and who do you ask... Someone once said that he has no doubt US is going to engineer its way out of this crisis. Well, after 2 years since Obama said its time to invest in stocks @SPX666 I sort of believe him...
    Apr 3 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPad 2: An Incremental Upgrade Enough to Kill the Competition [View article]
    3 years ago I ditched Windows for Mac (and did that with all 5 PCs in my household). I kept my Nokia E71 phone because iPhone was too dumb. Last summer when multitasking finally came on iOS I got iPhone4 and did that for all 4 phones in my household.

    My tablet is going to be Android because experience in moving and accessing files on iPhone using iTunes is just too painful. I intend to use tablet, for example, as a screen to play my 500+ .mkv and .m4v movies out of the attached 3 TB harddrive. Quicktime can't play these.

    I also want to be able to quickly move files between devices using file browser and not stupid iTunes.

    My next phones will be Androids because of the reasons above.
    Mar 2 09:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Bernanke Pull a Fast One Last Night? [View article]
    hmm, this might work... or NOT? Let's see: the bank will hand over precious UST from its reserves in exchange for cash.... and goes to buy part stock and part brand spanking new UST from US gov.

    Result:
    - whoever kept stock the bank bought will get cash
    - US gov gets cash which distributes to its employees, suppliers etc etc.

    I DO NOT see how these QE money WOULD NOT end in the economy and increase money supply...
    Dec 6 05:24 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Bernanke Pull a Fast One Last Night? [View article]
    ... and if it wasn't for EU (sort of artificial) problem USD would be down 20% vs. other currencies... Let's face it (what Ben forgot to mention in his 10+ years outlook) - until wages in US match their counterparts in other parts of the world - save for some reasonable premium if so - we will see continuous fall in living standard in US.

    Meaning things will cost more and wages will be about the same.
    Dec 6 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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