What Would It Take In Units And Margins To Have Apple Trade At $240 [View article]
" I've become more curious about Seeking Alpha's business model than I am about AAPL."
"This is the problem with SA. Contributors can write an article with little to no factual data (Trainer), and have it published on all the major news feeds for investors. "
This is a markets blogging site just like The Street and Motley Fool which are often published in major news feeds. Personally, I won't even click on these stories' tag lines in my wire feeds because I don't have time to verify the information when I am trading. They are ALL OPINION. Those who are making investing decisions based on this without doing their own research should not be self directed investors. However, where is YOUR PROOF that there is little to no factual data in these articles. Why don't you contribute by proving your counterargument rather than make baseless accusations expecting everyone to take them on your word alone.
Is The VIX Index Forecasting A Stock Market Surprise? [View article]
"Excuse me? It doesn't matter what the dollar price is, it can still go up or down by x%. $6 to $3 is a 50% loss"
I would excuse you but there is no black and white conversion as you seem to think. Can it go down 50%? Sure, but the capital required to maintain the position is small when compared to your $60 stock. You have to understand the product you are buying or selling AND if you don't then do not get involved in it. Do you understand what volatility as defined by VIX is? If so, what do you think the odds are that volatility can EVER go to ZERO. Volatility CANNOT FILE BANKRUPTCY. It does not have to sell new shares or debt to make its payroll. It loves news.
Markets are all about human nature not companies and things. Ever been to an auction? Often bidding starts out slow with the auctioneer pleading for a bid. Suddenly a couple of people get into a small bidding war over the item. Others think what am I missing and jump into the fray. Did the winner "really" want the item at that price? There is one sure constant here. There will always be FEAR and GREED because people don't like calm waters. Now, what are the odds that VIX price will double in the next 12 months? Look at a 5 year chart of the VIX for the answer.
But I don't think I said anything about taking an investor's position in UVXY. I said best way to PLAY IT is to buy it because it is cheap and sell covered calls because the volatility product UVXY has very high volatility. This makes its options more valuable. Why does it have high volatility? Because it is leveraged. Look at the options in Alcoa (AA). The stock is trading around 8.50/share. The June $9 call is selling for 0.06. When I made my comment, UVXY was selling for around 5.70/share and the June $6 call was selling for 0.60. That is a lot of juice.
So, three things can happen with a UVXY covered position:
1) It goes down, you make money on the options. Sure you have to wait for it to go back up but not for long. So, you just keep selling juicy calls every month (lowering your cost basis) until one day it shoots back up and you make even more. 2) It goes up, you make money on the shares. 3) It goes up and the shares get called away, you make money on the option premium and the shares.
You have to differentiate between making money and marrying a market product. Once you do that, opportunities will become apparent.
Is The VIX Index Forecasting A Stock Market Surprise? [View article]
The best way to play it right now is $UVXY. Why? 1) Since it is currently less than $6/share, the downside risk is low. 2) With high implied volatility (over 100%), selling covered calls against the position is juicy as well.
Current front month (Jun) 1 strike out of the money calls are selling for 60 cents. That's a lot of premium for a little risk. Or if you prefer defined risk, buying the bull put spread is another option.
Intel Can Give Apple The Edge In Mobile [View article]
"Apple seeks to delight its customers and thereby profit. Apple success at that goal is clear: It is by far the most profitable company in the mobile market."
Well said. What we have here is the 21st century equivalent of WinTel in GoogSung. Only this time there is no ability to corner the market using dirty tricks as documented in the Comes v Microsoft documents because here is no reliance on "gift" taking IT people driving the direction of tech. This time socially driven consumers and BYOD decide what tech to use. It is only the mainstream media which seems to think there is a war going on. Just like last time, Samsung is practically giving away their cheap hardware but Google is not just selling the operating system at cut rate prices they are giving it away. Just like last time, GoogSung depends on volume sales. But this time, it is fickle consumers deciding what is hot or not rather than "paid off" IT. The biggest difference this time is organization leadership is realizing it is much cheaper to provide "security safe" apps rather than maintain contracts for hardware and services. This is why US DoD and other big organizations are hard driving to BYOD. There are always swings as new technology is brought out. That's the nature of tech. However, unlike last time, Apple has piles of cash so there is no threat of bankruptcy looming around the corner to squash the future engineering ideas that have brought us iPod, iPhone, iPad so far. Why didn't WinTel or GoogSung does this in the first place. Maybe because it takes different thinking not just me too-ing.
As to the article, the best thing Apple has done in this whole new phase of its existence was buy two small processor design companies to enable cradle to grave control of their chip designs. They do not need anything from Intel mobile chips. The designers which Apple acquired were making extremely low powered high tech chips for embedded military applications while Intel was still banking on a WinTel PC future. These military applications were so important that the DoD made Apple agree to support them until end of lifecycle. Why didn't the military just turn to mighty Intel or Samsung to do the job?
Intel Can Give Apple The Edge In Mobile [View article]
"apple fan boy"
That's a real constructive comment. Why don't you contribute to the conversation rather than take shots at those whose viewpoint you happen to disagree. This is not slashdot or some other tech site. It is a markets blogging site where all manner of market topics are discussed by people with all levels of markets education and experience. Reading your comment history indicates your sum total contribution so far is mostly calling commenters apple fan boys and girls. The fanboy wars ended at the turn of the last century. Do you think it is worth the space it takes to store bytesfor those three words?
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
"Simbian was and is a dying OS. #Nok had little choice"
If you want to be credible here, you might want to spell Symbian correctly. The new touch version of Nokia's operating system was available when the unqualified hack Elop breezed into town and spouted his Rome is burning drivel followed by gutting a 125 year old industrial and calling his former employer to license the oldest failure of a mobile operating system: Windows. Net result is Nokia makes a little bit of money between the license swap deal. They could have gotten Android for free and possibly been in the position Samsung holds today. Nokia and Motorola had a better reputation in mobile phones than most other contenders to the iPhone. Motorola was bought by a company that doesn't have any experience in manufacturing and Nokia hired someone who had no experience in manufacturing.
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
"Minds of moderate caliber ordinarily condemn everything which is beyond their range."
You might want to think twice before talking down to the "common folk" who pay your salary as the "minds" on Seeking Alpha go from Fed presidents to economists to CEOs/CFOs to huge hedge fund managers to just regular people with PHDs and years/decades of markets education and experience. My guess is range is not the problem. This is a blogging site where people with different opinions can discuss various market topics in an open forum. Just because you disagree with someone's viewpoint does not mean they are weaker minded that anyone else. Funny how those who personally attack the person rather than the argument gravitate to $MSFT, $NOK, $BBRY and other 20th century tech.
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
"Allow me to refresh our memory on the selling out stories of Lumia 920 at various places.
Nokia Lumia 920 Sold Out Virtually Everywhere"
And this final sentence in the last linked article puts it all in perspective:
"The final question is: how many units of the Lumia 920 have shipped? Because in the end, being “out of stock” can have different meanings depending on the situation."
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
"adduplex was off by a factor of 45% last quarter"
That is SHOCKING! NOT! A little research shows they are not an analysis or market research firm. They are a Windows only ad distributor that requires developers to include code in their apps for delivering the ads.
"AdDuplex is a cross-promotion network specifically targeted at Windows 8 and Windows Phone apps and games. It empowers developers to promote apps for free by helping each other… for each 10 ads displayed in your app 8 of your ads will be displayed in other apps. The remaining 2 ads will be sold to support the service."
Why as a developer would I want to include third party code in my apps for ad distribution which does not pay me anything. The other major mobile platforms have this built-in. Just another reason Windows Phone is not a serious monetizing system for developers.
Facebook's Current Price Is Unsustainable [View article]
You only have to look at the charts to see $FB is on its third bounce off of 25 since its IPO. It is likely to go above 30 before it falls. This bounce is from a broken down channel and a double bottom so it will be a stronger move up.
Demystifying The Microsoft/Apple Comparison Argument [View article]
"My sad feeling -- being a long time apple investor who has reluctantly sold most of his shares "
Why would you be sad? You made a good profit. Take it and move on or wait for a new price where you feel good about getting back in. Question is: Did you sell calls to get paid to surrender your shares or did you just drop the shares without a fight?
Demystifying The Microsoft/Apple Comparison Argument [View article]
""Smart money" is a made up noun.. I've been investing for 40 years"
There's your problem. Smart money doesn't invest. They trade. A good trader can feel the pressure building as momentum moves a stock on a steep incline. Smart money can pull the trigger to take profits (possibly get short) and wait until "investors" support the stock again. Yes Virginia, it is a "made up word" but it represents that group of "mythical" traders who can unemotionally look at price movement in terms of risk/reward not high/low.
"I trust sell side research about as much as I trust Larry Brown when he says he's not taking a new coaching job."
Well you got that one right. Maybe that should have been in the article instead of the weak thesis that can't stand up to even the slightest pressure. You may want to change your alias as there is no evidence of guru anywhere in your analysis. Seeking Alpha is filled with people with long histories of market participation from Federal Reserve and economists to billion dollar hedge fund managers to CEO/CFOs to independent traders who have been at it for decades. You have to earn your stripes here. An alias means nothing without a verifiable track record.
"RE- point 1- technical analysis- what is your background in TA?
Yes, it is kind of limited accuracy wise, but it helps me time a buy."
Can't agree more. It's the old find a chart that fits your thesis and say see it's x. An author may get away with that on other blogging sites but not Seeking Alpha because someone will challenge them. This is really bad technical analysis. It is Cramer "Off the Charts" level if that. If I was trying to push a negative case I would use the 3 month as well since it was in a 3 month down move. However, as you indicated the article is a week or so too late as the stock failed to make a new lower low. Now if we expand out to a longer timeframe (the 1 YEAR DAILY & WEEKLY) as any good chartist should do, it is clear there is a lot of support at 25. Three times now this has proven to be a good turning point up to the 30s. On top of that, it is bouncing off 25 twice in the last month. That is an even stronger indicator of lack of sellers around 25. I'm selling puts here not stock.
What Would It Take In Units And Margins To Have Apple Trade At $240 [View article]
"This is the problem with SA. Contributors can write an article with little to no factual data (Trainer), and have it published on all the major news feeds for investors. "
This is a markets blogging site just like The Street and Motley Fool which are often published in major news feeds. Personally, I won't even click on these stories' tag lines in my wire feeds because I don't have time to verify the information when I am trading. They are ALL OPINION. Those who are making investing decisions based on this without doing their own research should not be self directed investors. However, where is YOUR PROOF that there is little to no factual data in these articles. Why don't you contribute by proving your counterargument rather than make baseless accusations expecting everyone to take them on your word alone.
Is The VIX Index Forecasting A Stock Market Surprise? [View article]
I would excuse you but there is no black and white conversion as you seem to think. Can it go down 50%? Sure, but the capital required to maintain the position is small when compared to your $60 stock. You have to understand the product you are buying or selling AND if you don't then do not get involved in it. Do you understand what volatility as defined by VIX is? If so, what do you think the odds are that volatility can EVER go to ZERO. Volatility CANNOT FILE BANKRUPTCY. It does not have to sell new shares or debt to make its payroll. It loves news.
Markets are all about human nature not companies and things. Ever been to an auction? Often bidding starts out slow with the auctioneer pleading for a bid. Suddenly a couple of people get into a small bidding war over the item. Others think what am I missing and jump into the fray. Did the winner "really" want the item at that price? There is one sure constant here. There will always be FEAR and GREED because people don't like calm waters. Now, what are the odds that VIX price will double in the next 12 months? Look at a 5 year chart of the VIX for the answer.
But I don't think I said anything about taking an investor's position in UVXY. I said best way to PLAY IT is to buy it because it is cheap and sell covered calls because the volatility product UVXY has very high volatility. This makes its options more valuable. Why does it have high volatility? Because it is leveraged. Look at the options in Alcoa (AA). The stock is trading around 8.50/share. The June $9 call is selling for 0.06. When I made my comment, UVXY was selling for around 5.70/share and the June $6 call was selling for 0.60. That is a lot of juice.
So, three things can happen with a UVXY covered position:
1) It goes down, you make money on the options. Sure you have to wait for it to go back up but not for long. So, you just keep selling juicy calls every month (lowering your cost basis) until one day it shoots back up and you make even more.
2) It goes up, you make money on the shares.
3) It goes up and the shares get called away, you make money on the option premium and the shares.
You have to differentiate between making money and marrying a market product. Once you do that, opportunities will become apparent.
Is The VIX Index Forecasting A Stock Market Surprise? [View article]
1) Since it is currently less than $6/share, the downside risk is low.
2) With high implied volatility (over 100%), selling covered calls against the position is juicy as well.
Current front month (Jun) 1 strike out of the money calls are selling for 60 cents. That's a lot of premium for a little risk. Or if you prefer defined risk, buying the bull put spread is another option.
Intel Can Give Apple The Edge In Mobile [View article]
Well said. What we have here is the 21st century equivalent of WinTel in GoogSung. Only this time there is no ability to corner the market using dirty tricks as documented in the Comes v Microsoft documents because here is no reliance on "gift" taking IT people driving the direction of tech. This time socially driven consumers and BYOD decide what tech to use. It is only the mainstream media which seems to think there is a war going on. Just like last time, Samsung is practically giving away their cheap hardware but Google is not just selling the operating system at cut rate prices they are giving it away. Just like last time, GoogSung depends on volume sales. But this time, it is fickle consumers deciding what is hot or not rather than "paid off" IT. The biggest difference this time is organization leadership is realizing it is much cheaper to provide "security safe" apps rather than maintain contracts for hardware and services. This is why US DoD and other big organizations are hard driving to BYOD. There are always swings as new technology is brought out. That's the nature of tech. However, unlike last time, Apple has piles of cash so there is no threat of bankruptcy looming around the corner to squash the future engineering ideas that have brought us iPod, iPhone, iPad so far. Why didn't WinTel or GoogSung does this in the first place. Maybe because it takes different thinking not just me too-ing.
As to the article, the best thing Apple has done in this whole new phase of its existence was buy two small processor design companies to enable cradle to grave control of their chip designs. They do not need anything from Intel mobile chips. The designers which Apple acquired were making extremely low powered high tech chips for embedded military applications while Intel was still banking on a WinTel PC future. These military applications were so important that the DoD made Apple agree to support them until end of lifecycle. Why didn't the military just turn to mighty Intel or Samsung to do the job?
Intel Can Give Apple The Edge In Mobile [View article]
That's a real constructive comment. Why don't you contribute to the conversation rather than take shots at those whose viewpoint you happen to disagree. This is not slashdot or some other tech site. It is a markets blogging site where all manner of market topics are discussed by people with all levels of markets education and experience. Reading your comment history indicates your sum total contribution so far is mostly calling commenters apple fan boys and girls. The fanboy wars ended at the turn of the last century. Do you think it is worth the space it takes to store bytesfor those three words?
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
Excel was on Macs before PCs. It, has been on Mac for about 3 decades and Office has been on Macs since the first release.
http://bit.ly/12hduXQ
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
If you want to be credible here, you might want to spell Symbian correctly. The new touch version of Nokia's operating system was available when the unqualified hack Elop breezed into town and spouted his Rome is burning drivel followed by gutting a 125 year old industrial and calling his former employer to license the oldest failure of a mobile operating system: Windows. Net result is Nokia makes a little bit of money between the license swap deal. They could have gotten Android for free and possibly been in the position Samsung holds today. Nokia and Motorola had a better reputation in mobile phones than most other contenders to the iPhone. Motorola was bought by a company that doesn't have any experience in manufacturing and Nokia hired someone who had no experience in manufacturing.
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
You might want to think twice before talking down to the "common folk" who pay your salary as the "minds" on Seeking Alpha go from Fed presidents to economists to CEOs/CFOs to huge hedge fund managers to just regular people with PHDs and years/decades of markets education and experience. My guess is range is not the problem. This is a blogging site where people with different opinions can discuss various market topics in an open forum. Just because you disagree with someone's viewpoint does not mean they are weaker minded that anyone else. Funny how those who personally attack the person rather than the argument gravitate to $MSFT, $NOK, $BBRY and other 20th century tech.
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
Nokia Lumia 920 Sold Out Virtually Everywhere"
And this final sentence in the last linked article puts it all in perspective:
"The final question is: how many units of the Lumia 920 have shipped? Because in the end, being “out of stock” can have different meanings depending on the situation."
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
That is SHOCKING! NOT! A little research shows they are not an analysis or market research firm. They are a Windows only ad distributor that requires developers to include code in their apps for delivering the ads.
http://www.adduplex.com
"AdDuplex is a cross-promotion network specifically targeted at Windows 8 and Windows Phone apps and games. It empowers developers to promote apps for free by helping each other… for each 10 ads displayed in your app 8 of your ads will be displayed in other apps. The remaining 2 ads will be sold to support the service."
Why as a developer would I want to include third party code in my apps for ad distribution which does not pay me anything. The other major mobile platforms have this built-in. Just another reason Windows Phone is not a serious monetizing system for developers.
Facebook's Current Price Is Unsustainable [View article]
Demystifying The Microsoft/Apple Comparison Argument [View article]
Why would you be sad? You made a good profit. Take it and move on or wait for a new price where you feel good about getting back in. Question is: Did you sell calls to get paid to surrender your shares or did you just drop the shares without a fight?
Demystifying The Microsoft/Apple Comparison Argument [View article]
There's your problem. Smart money doesn't invest. They trade. A good trader can feel the pressure building as momentum moves a stock on a steep incline. Smart money can pull the trigger to take profits (possibly get short) and wait until "investors" support the stock again. Yes Virginia, it is a "made up word" but it represents that group of "mythical" traders who can unemotionally look at price movement in terms of risk/reward not high/low.
3 Reasons To Short Facebook [View article]
Well you got that one right. Maybe that should have been in the article instead of the weak thesis that can't stand up to even the slightest pressure. You may want to change your alias as there is no evidence of guru anywhere in your analysis. Seeking Alpha is filled with people with long histories of market participation from Federal Reserve and economists to billion dollar hedge fund managers to CEO/CFOs to independent traders who have been at it for decades. You have to earn your stripes here. An alias means nothing without a verifiable track record.
3 Reasons To Short Facebook [View article]
Yes, it is kind of limited accuracy wise, but it helps me time a buy."
Can't agree more. It's the old find a chart that fits your thesis and say see it's x. An author may get away with that on other blogging sites but not Seeking Alpha because someone will challenge them. This is really bad technical analysis. It is Cramer "Off the Charts" level if that. If I was trying to push a negative case I would use the 3 month as well since it was in a 3 month down move. However, as you indicated the article is a week or so too late as the stock failed to make a new lower low.
Now if we expand out to a longer timeframe (the 1 YEAR DAILY & WEEKLY) as any good chartist should do, it is clear there is a lot of support at 25. Three times now this has proven to be a good turning point up to the 30s. On top of that, it is bouncing off 25 twice in the last month. That is an even stronger indicator of lack of sellers around 25. I'm selling puts here not stock.