Is The VIX Index Forecasting A Stock Market Surprise? [View article]
The best way to play it right now is $UVXY. Why? 1) Since it is currently less than $6/share, the downside risk is low. 2) With high implied volatility (over 100%), selling covered calls against the position is juicy as well.
Current front month (Jun) 1 strike out of the money calls are selling for 60 cents. That's a lot of premium for a little risk. Or if you prefer defined risk, buying the bull put spread is another option.
Intel Can Give Apple The Edge In Mobile [View article]
"Apple seeks to delight its customers and thereby profit. Apple success at that goal is clear: It is by far the most profitable company in the mobile market."
Well said. What we have here is the 21st century equivalent of WinTel in GoogSung. Only this time there is no ability to corner the market using dirty tricks as documented in the Comes v Microsoft documents because here is no reliance on "gift" taking IT people driving the direction of tech. This time socially driven consumers and BYOD decide what tech to use. It is only the mainstream media which seems to think there is a war going on. Just like last time, Samsung is practically giving away their cheap hardware but Google is not just selling the operating system at cut rate prices they are giving it away. Just like last time, GoogSung depends on volume sales. But this time, it is fickle consumers deciding what is hot or not rather than "paid off" IT. The biggest difference this time is organization leadership is realizing it is much cheaper to provide "security safe" apps rather than maintain contracts for hardware and services. This is why US DoD and other big organizations are hard driving to BYOD. There are always swings as new technology is brought out. That's the nature of tech. However, unlike last time, Apple has piles of cash so there is no threat of bankruptcy looming around the corner to squash the future engineering ideas that have brought us iPod, iPhone, iPad so far. Why didn't WinTel or GoogSung does this in the first place. Maybe because it takes different thinking not just me too-ing.
As to the article, the best thing Apple has done in this whole new phase of its existence was buy two small processor design companies to enable cradle to grave control of their chip designs. They do not need anything from Intel mobile chips. The designers which Apple acquired were making extremely low powered high tech chips for embedded military applications while Intel was still banking on a WinTel PC future. These military applications were so important that the DoD made Apple agree to support them until end of lifecycle. Why didn't the military just turn to mighty Intel or Samsung to do the job?
Intel Can Give Apple The Edge In Mobile [View article]
"apple fan boy"
That's a real constructive comment. Why don't you contribute to the conversation rather than take shots at those whose viewpoint you happen to disagree. This is not slashdot or some other tech site. It is a markets blogging site where all manner of market topics are discussed by people with all levels of markets education and experience. Reading your comment history indicates your sum total contribution so far is mostly calling commenters apple fan boys and girls. The fanboy wars ended at the turn of the last century. Do you think it is worth the space it takes to store bytesfor those three words?
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
"Simbian was and is a dying OS. #Nok had little choice"
If you want to be credible here, you might want to spell Symbian correctly. The new touch version of Nokia's operating system was available when the unqualified hack Elop breezed into town and spouted his Rome is burning drivel followed by gutting a 125 year old industrial and calling his former employer to license the oldest failure of a mobile operating system: Windows. Net result is Nokia makes a little bit of money between the license swap deal. They could have gotten Android for free and possibly been in the position Samsung holds today. Nokia and Motorola had a better reputation in mobile phones than most other contenders to the iPhone. Motorola was bought by a company that doesn't have any experience in manufacturing and Nokia hired someone who had no experience in manufacturing.
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
"Minds of moderate caliber ordinarily condemn everything which is beyond their range."
You might want to think twice before talking down to the "common folk" who pay your salary as the "minds" on Seeking Alpha go from Fed presidents to economists to CEOs/CFOs to huge hedge fund managers to just regular people with PHDs and years/decades of markets education and experience. My guess is range is not the problem. This is a blogging site where people with different opinions can discuss various market topics in an open forum. Just because you disagree with someone's viewpoint does not mean they are weaker minded that anyone else. Funny how those who personally attack the person rather than the argument gravitate to $MSFT, $NOK, $BBRY and other 20th century tech.
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
"Allow me to refresh our memory on the selling out stories of Lumia 920 at various places.
Nokia Lumia 920 Sold Out Virtually Everywhere"
And this final sentence in the last linked article puts it all in perspective:
"The final question is: how many units of the Lumia 920 have shipped? Because in the end, being “out of stock” can have different meanings depending on the situation."
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
"adduplex was off by a factor of 45% last quarter"
That is SHOCKING! NOT! A little research shows they are not an analysis or market research firm. They are a Windows only ad distributor that requires developers to include code in their apps for delivering the ads.
"AdDuplex is a cross-promotion network specifically targeted at Windows 8 and Windows Phone apps and games. It empowers developers to promote apps for free by helping each other… for each 10 ads displayed in your app 8 of your ads will be displayed in other apps. The remaining 2 ads will be sold to support the service."
Why as a developer would I want to include third party code in my apps for ad distribution which does not pay me anything. The other major mobile platforms have this built-in. Just another reason Windows Phone is not a serious monetizing system for developers.
Facebook's Current Price Is Unsustainable [View article]
You only have to look at the charts to see $FB is on its third bounce off of 25 since its IPO. It is likely to go above 30 before it falls. This bounce is from a broken down channel and a double bottom so it will be a stronger move up.
Demystifying The Microsoft/Apple Comparison Argument [View article]
"My sad feeling -- being a long time apple investor who has reluctantly sold most of his shares "
Why would you be sad? You made a good profit. Take it and move on or wait for a new price where you feel good about getting back in. Question is: Did you sell calls to get paid to surrender your shares or did you just drop the shares without a fight?
Demystifying The Microsoft/Apple Comparison Argument [View article]
""Smart money" is a made up noun.. I've been investing for 40 years"
There's your problem. Smart money doesn't invest. They trade. A good trader can feel the pressure building as momentum moves a stock on a steep incline. Smart money can pull the trigger to take profits (possibly get short) and wait until "investors" support the stock again. Yes Virginia, it is a "made up word" but it represents that group of "mythical" traders who can unemotionally look at price movement in terms of risk/reward not high/low.
"I trust sell side research about as much as I trust Larry Brown when he says he's not taking a new coaching job."
Well you got that one right. Maybe that should have been in the article instead of the weak thesis that can't stand up to even the slightest pressure. You may want to change your alias as there is no evidence of guru anywhere in your analysis. Seeking Alpha is filled with people with long histories of market participation from Federal Reserve and economists to billion dollar hedge fund managers to CEO/CFOs to independent traders who have been at it for decades. You have to earn your stripes here. An alias means nothing without a verifiable track record.
"RE- point 1- technical analysis- what is your background in TA?
Yes, it is kind of limited accuracy wise, but it helps me time a buy."
Can't agree more. It's the old find a chart that fits your thesis and say see it's x. An author may get away with that on other blogging sites but not Seeking Alpha because someone will challenge them. This is really bad technical analysis. It is Cramer "Off the Charts" level if that. If I was trying to push a negative case I would use the 3 month as well since it was in a 3 month down move. However, as you indicated the article is a week or so too late as the stock failed to make a new lower low. Now if we expand out to a longer timeframe (the 1 YEAR DAILY & WEEKLY) as any good chartist should do, it is clear there is a lot of support at 25. Three times now this has proven to be a good turning point up to the 30s. On top of that, it is bouncing off 25 twice in the last month. That is an even stronger indicator of lack of sellers around 25. I'm selling puts here not stock.
Google Values Vringo At $200 Billion [View article]
"I own 39,000 Shares : )"
"victoria about 9 times your position"
So, you are only willing to put up 350K shares at average 2.99 or $1.05 million. That's only 0.4% of the company. Why don't you put your money where your mouth is and take a 5% stake in this holy grail of a company?
"This is so misleading it's difficult to believe it's not intentional"
Kind of emotional there. You used this phrase several times in just this one comment. Are you saying that the established game reporting organization NPD has some nefarious reason for showing this information? That would be like saying Gartner and IDC have it in for PCs. All I am doing is providing the data from establsihed sources that have been tracking the "same dataset" for years. And then I relate my own experience. Here's another one. As my profile says, I am a trader. I don't have any position in any of these companies. I had one in $INTC for a couple of weeks last year when an earnings scalp went the wrong way but that is the extent of my ownership.
"Current gen consoles are end-of-life, of course hardware an software sales are falling … check out how Nvidia and AMD's graphic division are doing if you want the correct numbers
This may be true but taking manufacturer sales and trying to equate them to retail is folly. These graphics chips are being used in all sorts of "display" devices. NVidia and AMD ATI chips go into almost all PCs, gaming consoles and portables, mobile devices, and many more. Unless you have specific evidence that game consoles are all the graphics divisions make then you are just speculating. When the next gen console sales come out in the next several months. then we will see what is what. Maybe you'll believe this Sept 2012 article from game industry.biz:
"Importantly, Mobile Gamers now represent the largest gamer segment, ahead of Core Gamers, which was the largest segment in 2011. NPD also said that the Family+Kid gamers segment experienced the most significant decline of an estimated 17.4 million gamers."
You can't have it both ways. I am sure you were cheering NPD reports in 2006/2007/2008 as the console gaming industry grew month after month. In tech, something always comes along that changes consumer opinion. In 2005/2006, it was the current generation of multi-cell processor game consoles being favored over PCs. Now it is mobile tablets and phones being favored over consoles and PCs. You can say my information is intentionally misleading all you want but I can keep providing more and more data that shows it is not. This is what happens when you marry old 20th century tech companies rather than move with the changing tide. You accuse people of trying to mislead you when all you have to do is open your eyes to see the truth.
Is The VIX Index Forecasting A Stock Market Surprise? [View article]
1) Since it is currently less than $6/share, the downside risk is low.
2) With high implied volatility (over 100%), selling covered calls against the position is juicy as well.
Current front month (Jun) 1 strike out of the money calls are selling for 60 cents. That's a lot of premium for a little risk. Or if you prefer defined risk, buying the bull put spread is another option.
Intel Can Give Apple The Edge In Mobile [View article]
Well said. What we have here is the 21st century equivalent of WinTel in GoogSung. Only this time there is no ability to corner the market using dirty tricks as documented in the Comes v Microsoft documents because here is no reliance on "gift" taking IT people driving the direction of tech. This time socially driven consumers and BYOD decide what tech to use. It is only the mainstream media which seems to think there is a war going on. Just like last time, Samsung is practically giving away their cheap hardware but Google is not just selling the operating system at cut rate prices they are giving it away. Just like last time, GoogSung depends on volume sales. But this time, it is fickle consumers deciding what is hot or not rather than "paid off" IT. The biggest difference this time is organization leadership is realizing it is much cheaper to provide "security safe" apps rather than maintain contracts for hardware and services. This is why US DoD and other big organizations are hard driving to BYOD. There are always swings as new technology is brought out. That's the nature of tech. However, unlike last time, Apple has piles of cash so there is no threat of bankruptcy looming around the corner to squash the future engineering ideas that have brought us iPod, iPhone, iPad so far. Why didn't WinTel or GoogSung does this in the first place. Maybe because it takes different thinking not just me too-ing.
As to the article, the best thing Apple has done in this whole new phase of its existence was buy two small processor design companies to enable cradle to grave control of their chip designs. They do not need anything from Intel mobile chips. The designers which Apple acquired were making extremely low powered high tech chips for embedded military applications while Intel was still banking on a WinTel PC future. These military applications were so important that the DoD made Apple agree to support them until end of lifecycle. Why didn't the military just turn to mighty Intel or Samsung to do the job?
Intel Can Give Apple The Edge In Mobile [View article]
That's a real constructive comment. Why don't you contribute to the conversation rather than take shots at those whose viewpoint you happen to disagree. This is not slashdot or some other tech site. It is a markets blogging site where all manner of market topics are discussed by people with all levels of markets education and experience. Reading your comment history indicates your sum total contribution so far is mostly calling commenters apple fan boys and girls. The fanboy wars ended at the turn of the last century. Do you think it is worth the space it takes to store bytesfor those three words?
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
Excel was on Macs before PCs. It, has been on Mac for about 3 decades and Office has been on Macs since the first release.
http://bit.ly/12hduXQ
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
If you want to be credible here, you might want to spell Symbian correctly. The new touch version of Nokia's operating system was available when the unqualified hack Elop breezed into town and spouted his Rome is burning drivel followed by gutting a 125 year old industrial and calling his former employer to license the oldest failure of a mobile operating system: Windows. Net result is Nokia makes a little bit of money between the license swap deal. They could have gotten Android for free and possibly been in the position Samsung holds today. Nokia and Motorola had a better reputation in mobile phones than most other contenders to the iPhone. Motorola was bought by a company that doesn't have any experience in manufacturing and Nokia hired someone who had no experience in manufacturing.
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
You might want to think twice before talking down to the "common folk" who pay your salary as the "minds" on Seeking Alpha go from Fed presidents to economists to CEOs/CFOs to huge hedge fund managers to just regular people with PHDs and years/decades of markets education and experience. My guess is range is not the problem. This is a blogging site where people with different opinions can discuss various market topics in an open forum. Just because you disagree with someone's viewpoint does not mean they are weaker minded that anyone else. Funny how those who personally attack the person rather than the argument gravitate to $MSFT, $NOK, $BBRY and other 20th century tech.
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
Nokia Lumia 920 Sold Out Virtually Everywhere"
And this final sentence in the last linked article puts it all in perspective:
"The final question is: how many units of the Lumia 920 have shipped? Because in the end, being “out of stock” can have different meanings depending on the situation."
Why Nokia's Biggest Problem Is Microsoft [View article]
That is SHOCKING! NOT! A little research shows they are not an analysis or market research firm. They are a Windows only ad distributor that requires developers to include code in their apps for delivering the ads.
http://www.adduplex.com
"AdDuplex is a cross-promotion network specifically targeted at Windows 8 and Windows Phone apps and games. It empowers developers to promote apps for free by helping each other… for each 10 ads displayed in your app 8 of your ads will be displayed in other apps. The remaining 2 ads will be sold to support the service."
Why as a developer would I want to include third party code in my apps for ad distribution which does not pay me anything. The other major mobile platforms have this built-in. Just another reason Windows Phone is not a serious monetizing system for developers.
Facebook's Current Price Is Unsustainable [View article]
Demystifying The Microsoft/Apple Comparison Argument [View article]
Why would you be sad? You made a good profit. Take it and move on or wait for a new price where you feel good about getting back in. Question is: Did you sell calls to get paid to surrender your shares or did you just drop the shares without a fight?
Demystifying The Microsoft/Apple Comparison Argument [View article]
There's your problem. Smart money doesn't invest. They trade. A good trader can feel the pressure building as momentum moves a stock on a steep incline. Smart money can pull the trigger to take profits (possibly get short) and wait until "investors" support the stock again. Yes Virginia, it is a "made up word" but it represents that group of "mythical" traders who can unemotionally look at price movement in terms of risk/reward not high/low.
3 Reasons To Short Facebook [View article]
Well you got that one right. Maybe that should have been in the article instead of the weak thesis that can't stand up to even the slightest pressure. You may want to change your alias as there is no evidence of guru anywhere in your analysis. Seeking Alpha is filled with people with long histories of market participation from Federal Reserve and economists to billion dollar hedge fund managers to CEO/CFOs to independent traders who have been at it for decades. You have to earn your stripes here. An alias means nothing without a verifiable track record.
3 Reasons To Short Facebook [View article]
Yes, it is kind of limited accuracy wise, but it helps me time a buy."
Can't agree more. It's the old find a chart that fits your thesis and say see it's x. An author may get away with that on other blogging sites but not Seeking Alpha because someone will challenge them. This is really bad technical analysis. It is Cramer "Off the Charts" level if that. If I was trying to push a negative case I would use the 3 month as well since it was in a 3 month down move. However, as you indicated the article is a week or so too late as the stock failed to make a new lower low.
Now if we expand out to a longer timeframe (the 1 YEAR DAILY & WEEKLY) as any good chartist should do, it is clear there is a lot of support at 25. Three times now this has proven to be a good turning point up to the 30s. On top of that, it is bouncing off 25 twice in the last month. That is an even stronger indicator of lack of sellers around 25. I'm selling puts here not stock.
Google Values Vringo At $200 Billion [View article]
"victoria about 9 times your position"
So, you are only willing to put up 350K shares at average 2.99 or $1.05 million. That's only 0.4% of the company. Why don't you put your money where your mouth is and take a 5% stake in this holy grail of a company?
The Turnaround Accelerates For AMD [View article]
Kind of emotional there. You used this phrase several times in just this one comment. Are you saying that the established game reporting organization NPD has some nefarious reason for showing this information? That would be like saying Gartner and IDC have it in for PCs. All I am doing is providing the data from establsihed sources that have been tracking the "same dataset" for years. And then I relate my own experience. Here's another one. As my profile says, I am a trader. I don't have any position in any of these companies. I had one in $INTC for a couple of weeks last year when an earnings scalp went the wrong way but that is the extent of my ownership.
"Current gen consoles are end-of-life, of course hardware an software sales are falling … check out how Nvidia and AMD's graphic division are doing if you want the correct numbers
This may be true but taking manufacturer sales and trying to equate them to retail is folly. These graphics chips are being used in all sorts of "display" devices. NVidia and AMD ATI chips go into almost all PCs, gaming consoles and portables, mobile devices, and many more. Unless you have specific evidence that game consoles are all the graphics divisions make then you are just speculating. When the next gen console sales come out in the next several months. then we will see what is what. Maybe you'll believe this Sept 2012 article from game industry.biz:
http://bit.ly/YX3u3C
"Importantly, Mobile Gamers now represent the largest gamer segment, ahead of Core Gamers, which was the largest segment in 2011. NPD also said that the Family+Kid gamers segment experienced the most significant decline of an estimated 17.4 million gamers."
You can't have it both ways. I am sure you were cheering NPD reports in 2006/2007/2008 as the console gaming industry grew month after month. In tech, something always comes along that changes consumer opinion. In 2005/2006, it was the current generation of multi-cell processor game consoles being favored over PCs. Now it is mobile tablets and phones being favored over consoles and PCs. You can say my information is intentionally misleading all you want but I can keep providing more and more data that shows it is not. This is what happens when you marry old 20th century tech companies rather than move with the changing tide. You accuse people of trying to mislead you when all you have to do is open your eyes to see the truth.