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bilton

bilton
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  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    "Maybe so, but the article is still crap."

    And you are entitled to that opinion though you might want to change your profile:

    "Individual investor with long term investment outlook"

    More like speculator with an eye for trying to hit the jackpot before crapping out. And most long term investors don't trade daily.
    Apr 6 02:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    "I'm curious what "accounting gifts" you will bash 3 more years down the road"

    You really are married to this one. Where in my response did I directly link $BBRY to accounting gifts? My point was your statement about profit is meaningless without context. Profit is made in many different ways that are like squeezing a sponge. SG&A can be squeezed. R&D can be squeezed. Contract labor can be squeezed. And on and on. The only real barometer is healthy sales/service revenue associated with real cash or business growth.
    Apr 6 01:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo May Be Vetting A Buyer [View article]
    "I am sure he knows a thing or two about IP law"

    You think. Just looking at the Virginia Law Weekly should clue some in:

    http://bit.ly/10Boyhr
    Apr 5 03:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo May Be Vetting A Buyer [View article]
    "Seeking Alpha maintains a policy against personal attacks on another user or contributor."

    Not quite. I don't know what was said that you thought you should act as the pc police. For all anyone knows, it was a flame war between you, H_H, and some of the pumpers here. Then you posted this comment to cover yourself. As long as it is civil, there is no hard and fast rule about questioning the veracity of an author or commenter. For example, Kevin's claim he's a millionaire who just hangs out here to help the VRNG crowd. If everything that was said here in your article and comments were taken as fact then it would reduce SA to the junior ranger level of many other blogging sites where it devolves into authors and commenters making "good faith" statements of pc intimidation like yours. That causes cowering in the corner and proliferates unchallenged exaggerated statements. This does a disservice to those looking for factual information on which to make investing/trading decisions and this is what separates Seeking Alpha from most other markets blogging sites.

    I find most of what has been said in this article and comments to be wishful thinking. Like the one about "15 days to respond" being something significant. Sounds pretty normal procedurally to me. The judge and lawyers looked at their calendars and agreed to the time frame. No one of the "learned" trial following crowd here tried to clarify it as normal. Why not? After the motions in the main trial are over and the judge's review is complete, $GOOG will appeal and seek a stay of any damage awards. You all act like VRNG is going to get a huge award with royalties and Google will just roll over. If they were going to do that, it would have already happened. H_H made some of the most useful statements about big money funds causing the stock price to remain stale. Hammers the point home that it sure is a sad way to tie up your capital waiting for godot when there is a world of quality companies growing every year.
    Apr 5 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Explanation For BlackBerry's Short Interest Spike [View article]
    Your chart pretty much tells the story and it blows up your thesis that validates the stock becoming a day trader's delight. In the center of the increased activity is the huge January 30 spike. It happened because that was:

    the launch day for the Blackberry 10.

    The noise on each side is the anticipation by investors before and after the launch. The stock is too boring to be favored by day traders. The spread is one penny wide and bid/ask size are usually several 100 lots most of the time so movement is too slow.

    Short interest does not change in correlation with day or swing trading. That would be fleeting in the stats as the numbers are only captured twice a month. What you have is a lot of people who are "long term" betting against the company. It is hard to "shake them out" because of the share dynamics I described above. On top of that, there are too many long shares (44% of the float) in the hands of tight fisted retail investors and only 300 institutional investors with most holdings being in the hands of around 20 institutions. This is about 7% of institutional holders Only about 50 institutions hold 1 million or more shares. This is about 17% of institutional holders. So, essentially 83% of institutional shares are in small tight fisted hands. Not really a formula to squeeze anyone but the weakest retail short.
    Apr 2 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    "You getting personal while declaring that you're here "for the good of the community" makes me laugh."

    I didn't say this post was for the community. This one was directed at you following your trying to tell someone "The trick is to leave emotions at home."

    An emotional "investor" desperately tries to distort the truth because their attachment to the stock keeps them from seeing straight. This really shows when you say "But I was right, and "bears" were wrong, and incidentally, this paid well, I made money with BB on the way down and on the way up." You see the bears as the enemy. This shows little understanding of markets. Without them, you would be stuck in a dead stock because no one would provide a fair price on either side. What makes a market is different bidders and sellers having different views of the company (or some financial instrument). Those you called "bears" may have just been unemotional smart money that sells when price goes up and buys when it goes down. Then again maybe they just have a keen nose for rotting corpses.
    Apr 2 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    "this is so noble. Got any thank you notes yet?"

    Like I said, this is not for those who are living in a dream world. I put out facts for those that CARE about their money not those who speculate and exaggerate here to try and get others to agree with their rose colored glasses viewpoint.
    Apr 2 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    "if in a hard year I make 300M profit with 12,700 people"

    All depends on how you got there. Profit is always an easily manipulated value when a company is struggling to survive. Goodwill and other accounting gifts can make any pig look like a swan (but only for a short amount of time).
    Apr 2 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    "it appears Kofi was looking at the depreciation/amortization cash ADJUSTMENT on the cash flows statement and thinking this was a major source of Blackberry's cash."

    You're talking to the wrong person here. I wasn't replying to the questioning of Kofi's statement. I was replying to the hoper investors who always think their company's crap doesn't stink because somehow it's more valuable crap. You may think the "cash statement" is more difficult to understand and BBRY's is "remarkably healthy in light of a hard fought turnaround." The financials are only complete when taken in totality of the notes and other documents around the filing. Kofi pretty much captured the whole picture. This company is much like $NOK in gutting the company and taking drastic measures to try and stop the bleeding. Not a good way to hold on to market position. Just look at what happened to Motorola when their core businesses changed.
    Apr 2 07:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Do Short Sellers Feel Lucky? [View article]
    Here's the link to the Bloomberg video:

    http://bloom.bg/WZBApS
    Mar 30 12:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    "something more akin to poker"

    Poker is just like trading: the more you know, the better your probabilities of winning. And as with all probability games, the more data points (experience from hands played) by a knowledgeable player, the more likely they are to take the money of those who think its just knowing what hand beats another.

    "individual investors can win…

    This is a real analogy to poker. The only way a simple investor can consistently win from stock picking is if they become knowledgeable enough to no long be a simple investor. Sure, they can get lucky once in a while but the probabilities show they will lose their money because they don't really understand the game.

    "The trick is to leave emotions at home. Easier said than done."

    Excuse me while I pick myself up off the floor. Your comments and replies to my comments above show you may believe this but you definitely don't practice it. You are so emotionally married to BBRY, its scary. Successful investing does not involve emotions, it is about understanding companies. You want to have some emotion because you "own" a piece of this venture but you don't want to get blinded where you ignore red flags just because you "think" the company is "going great places". When you start saying "wait until March 28" or spend your time questioning numbers that are clearly available with a little searching, you are too wrapped up in your investment and need to take a step back and say "what is my goal here and what is the probability I will succeed. Simply hoping is not a strategy.
    Mar 27 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    Jballa, for a new trader you have a pretty good grasp on share dynamics.

    "And even the Terminators don't always win!...where is the Justice in this hellish system they call a fair market!"

    Shhhh! Who said markets are fair. That is a myth perpetuated by the financial mass media. Knowledge and money is power. The more you learn, the more you will realize this is a many dimensional game not a simple two dimensional bull/bear, long/short, whatever two sides you compare.
    Mar 27 06:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    "The fact some disclosure is allowed does not make it neither compulsory, nor useful for the company. Nice try anyway.
    Also, you could have provided a link, instead of pasting all that on a forum."

    There is a link. Here it is again for the DDD challenged:

    http://1.usa.gov/YQSoMf

    Had you clicked on it, you may have been able to comprehend that the paragraphs that I posted were only part of the SEC stance on "the quiet period".

    You can stand by whatever you like. I prefer to give the facts to the community and let them decide for themselves. As I have said many times, Seeking Alpha is unique from most other markets blogging sites because everything you say here is available in your profile history whether you choose to remain anonymous or not. I will put my history up against yours any time.
    Mar 27 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    ""low-mid-single digit" ... really ?!?"

    Don't shoot the messenger. All I am doing is trying to clear up the obvious confusion of "simple minded" investors. There was a lot of chatter here about 300K being the first weekend US sales. My post and link show the truth. If you choose to ignore it, not my problem but there are people out there who actually read blogs looking for information as they form an opinion on their investments. It was the Cannacord analyst who came up with the 300K number. It is his opinion. Other analysts have their own research and numbers. You are free to do the due diligence and bring forth other numbers. Just be aware that here on Seeking Alpha there are people of all levels of markets education and experience. Someone might challenge your view of the facts.
    Mar 27 06:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    "But IT and electronics equipment have a higher resale value"

    In what universe. This is the problem with "investors": they think value is based on what not who. "My company is goin to da moon!" Until there is a buyer, there is NO value in either your shares or "your" company's assets. These are all paper profits and losses based on what someone "might" pay. There have been many examples of this playing out. Iconic 75 year old airline companies at the end of the last century are a good example. Many regular people have learned this lesson during housing bubbles. "My house is worth 300K". Then the bubble bursts and the real norm returns. Turns out that house was really worth 100K. Same applies to stocks. You can use all the formulae you want to determine what a company is worth but until a buyer comes forward and makes an offer there is NO real value.
    Mar 27 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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