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ALPHA BET SOUP

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  • Why Xinyuan Needs The TPG Deal Like A Fish Needs Water [View article]
    Any update?

    $5.48 floor didn't hold by a long shot.
    buybacks have not been significant recently.
    421 Kent has not been built.
    website not amazing.
    management doesn't communicate.
    TPG won't even claim the investment.
    Turnover

    Long and hoping management fixes at least one of these things.
    Mar 25 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    yeah... odd that one has not come out yet. Was expecting something by now. Robert to be honest it's odd that you would have posted that as the proxy, because I know you know that isn't a vote on the buyout. This is far from a done deal the longer it takes to send something to shareholders, the more uncertainty there is IMO. I know you've read everything out there, so why would you have posted this as if it contained a vote on the buyout?
    Mar 17 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group, Inc.: A Textbook Dollar Bill For Fifty Cents, Maybe Less [View article]
    "Unfortunately, there has been some resistance from the Syntroleum stockholder base".

    I am curious what you are basing this on. I'm not disagreeing, just curious. Sure, law firms jumped on the situation. It makes sense since SYNM management enthusiastically announced that they were reviewing multiple offers when shares were in the $6 range. These were apparently so good that a plant that could have basically made the 2013 market cap in profit remained idled.

    Then shareholders wait months and get this and managment announces a $4 sale and acts as if this was a great deal and what was intended all along.

    So are you basing your thoughts just on the fact that there have been legal challenges, or are you suggesting that this actually may be voted down by shareholders and if so what is that supposition based on?

    Thanks!
    Mar 13 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rentech companies sink after reporting heavy Q4 losses [View news story]
    Have not regretted selling out of this a couple of years ago. Management always finds some way to come in under analyst estimates. There is always some cost that was higher than expected or some revenue level that was lower than anticipated. Every time.

    Shares in both RNF and RTK may provide good value here, but until Natural Gas Settles down I'm staying away.... My pick is Natural Gas prices will be the unanticipated cost next quarter.
    Mar 11 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher Soybean Prices Are Helping Renewable Energy Group's Margins [View article]
    Thank you for the article. I know that you have been long calls for a while. I guess my concern with that would be that the gov't is slow with everything... Why buy calls now when they probably won't legislate for a long time? In election years things usually happen in January.
    Mar 10 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX Shorts, Look Out Below [View article]
    THis is a great article and a great thread.. I am ignorant on this stuff so if someone could assist I would appreciate it.

    1. It seems like vxx and sxvy never really trade at NAV.. there is always a premium or discount.. Any ideas why, and what the range usually is?

    2. I guess I always thought contango was high when VIX was low... Is that the case? Under what circumstances would the VIX be low and contango high, or vice versa?

    3. (7.41% - Average Contango for 2013
    9.57% - Average Congango for 2013 at or near high in S&P 500
    3-4% - Current range of Contango at S&P 500 all time highs )

    Are these posted numbers the monthly contango rates or annual? I thought VXX and the like dropped much more than this in an average year.


    Thanks!
    Mar 7 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: 5 Things You Should Know Before You Buy [View article]
    this is like the best response ever.

    "If XIN is a fraud then the management team gets an A+ for effort and money spent to pull of the biggest, slowest scam of all time"

    If you make T-shirts that say this I will buy like 10 of them.

    XIN is one of the safer stocks on the market today. Longer it takes the market to realize that, the more I can buy. I'm young, no rush.
    Feb 24 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Really Has To Execute Now [View article]
    The shipment information has been positive, grades have been to standard, and currency issues (Canada currency has weakened and makes costs relative to metals prices a bit lower... plus employment costs/other inflation issues are less of a short-term concern up there) have been tailwinds, besides these costs were somewhat overstated from the outset.

    Again, my approach is that this company has been priced with a ton of risk. The bear approach to valuing this company is trying to decide what it would be worth in all the bad scenarios. Well yeah, those need to be taken into account (as do the upside scenarios) ... but at some point the most weight should be given to what is going on currently.

    At current Moly,Copper, and Gold prices, there will be profit. Sure, those metals could drop 20-30% and that may present issues.. but as undervalued as TC is, one could easily hedge that by shorting the metals or buying cheap out of the money GLD puts or whatever, and I think you can factor out the metals risk pretty significantly. That's why I don't feel like worst case scenarios should carry the conversation. If one believes the company is undervalued at current prices then there is a way to make money.

    I agree with the author that NAV is close to $4 at today's cpper/gold/moly prices. Given the current share price, there are low-risk arb opportunities if that is true.
    Feb 20 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Really Has To Execute Now [View article]
    Bearish analysts are somehow assuming that if TC doesn't pay off every penny of their debt by 2017 then the company is going broke. They are also applying past difficulties and ignoring the security that will come with significant profits over this year and the next.

    TC is still treated as being just as risky as it was a few months ago.. Shipments are doing well, metals prices are far above where TC needs them to be.. I believe this (as well as lower costs than projected) will become clear once earnings come out here in a few days and we see this info getting priced in a little more accurately.

    Within a few months I don't think we will be discussing TC debt concerns at all. One by one the analysts will revise their projections due to some 'new info' and say TC is now in a better place and clearly has enough CF to service debt as long as metals prices don't drop 20% blah blah blah... The thing is, TC is already there....I'm looking forward to making $$ as the analysts catch on.

    Disclosure: Long obviously :)
    Feb 19 03:42 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Natural Gas, Corn And Some Musing [View article]
    Sure, natural gas demand is seasonal, but in the offseason storage is built back up so it still needs to be produced. Storage is at the lowest it has been in years and producers are cutting back. Weather has been the cause for spot jump... but it's going to have a residual effect throughout the year and that's why futures prices are heading up as well.
    Feb 14 12:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Icahn Finally Push For A Takeover Of Chesapeake? [View article]
    What he said
    Feb 13 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Icahn Finally Push For A Takeover Of Chesapeake? [View article]
    Value of CHK holdings is enormous... Even selling piece by piece is good for shareholders, IMO, and will unlock value in the near term.. I don't know that this would sell for $40, but I also think it's worth more than what it's selling for now.
    Feb 13 03:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Keep Falling? [View article]
    Do the math on that storage report. Storage is going to be super low... Who is going to produce all that gas to get it back up to levels where it's needed?

    Spring is usually a time for stocks to be replentished. Per the article "The rig count is also 17.4% below the number of rigs recorded in 2013." Where is all this supply going to come from to replentish stocks???

    Companies have adjusted to the low price environment and are going to produce less and less when there is no profit to be made.
    Feb 11 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Natural Gas Keep Falling? [View article]
    You say "Based on this projection of below normal temperatures in only a few parts in the U.S".

    ... yes, but these are high population areas in the Northeast.


    Storage is at record lows. Production is at record lows. Population centers are experiencing record low temperatures. Prices are not headed down in the near term.
    Feb 11 10:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Is Benjamin Graham's Dream Come True! [View instapost]
    I agree that much of this has been said, but the market never seems to listen so the more it gets out there the better.

    Most of the time I end up dissappointed because the buyback amounts to nothing. It would add so much value to buy back shares at this level, and even $1 or $2 above this level. It's a concern that they don't do this.

    I am hoping TPG will encourage them to fix up the website, buy back shares, communicate with shareholders, etc.
    Feb 6 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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