Seeking Alpha
  • realornot
    $AAPL China Mobile news has failed to lift it back up is a very trouble sign. This stock will go below $500 one way/other. It is just when?
    1/12/13
    Reply (31)
    • realornot: It has started to build a Long Term down trend. Anticipating a Giant come back of $BBRY and $NOK big time. Mkt has hinted.
      1/12/13
    • realornot: I will prepare to short it when a solid pattern below $500 is solidified ! Be patience...
      1/12/13
    • det9: For now I am long now. Average is 588$. But if it goes below 500 I dont mind shorting it either. What about earnings? Thoughts?
      1/12/13
    • realornot: Im negative w it earnings. Im planning 2 buy puts nx wk. (weekly) I am anticipating a nice size drop if my forecast is correct. Risk I take.
      1/12/13
    • realornot: Option is a much better choice to take a bite of it rather than shorting it. Limited losses even if my forecast is wrong.
      1/12/13
    • gwinsto: There was no agreement, so of course it didn't move! If there was an agreement, it would defintely move.
      1/13/13
    • gwinsto: So not sure what you see as troubling.
      1/13/13
    • gwinsto: Buying either calls or puts just before earnings is silly. The implied volatilty drop will likely kill you
      1/13/13
    • gwinsto: Unless it makes a huge move in your direction, but without a crystal ball or inside info., it is just lousy gambling
      1/13/13
    • gwinsto: Most are expecting a huge swing either up or down. I wouldn't be surprised to see it move relatively little right after earnings.
      1/13/13
    • gwinsto: Real: Do you think buying RIMM before the BB 10 event is a good idea?I know you both buy and short this stock, so I know you are objective..
      1/13/13
    • gwinsto: I tend to think it is a bad idea, but don't know the stock well.
      1/13/13
    • realornot: gwinsto: Im playing a limited calculated injury w AAPL. If I am right then money will roll in. This is trading. Re RIMM, Im winning betting
      1/13/13
    • realornot: long. I have seen things are going positive with its hardware, software, management and balance sheet. Have open views & do research on stks
      1/13/13
    • realornot: will serve you well, gwinsto. We don't need insider info to trade or Vet traders like Dr. Kris, Ocean Man, David White & many others will
      1/13/13
    • realornot: not be here giving great info and still tradings! I am learning from the Pros. I normally picked a hand full of companies to study & trade.
      1/13/13
    • realornot: You will gain an edge over others.Do not spread yourself thin by trading the mass universe!No doubt you will be sucked into the black holes!
      1/13/13
    • realornot: one more thing, I will Short $BBRY if it is not giving us the right thing. Do not fall in love with a company? Emotion will hurt.Logic won't
      1/13/13
    • gwinsto: I was referring to the earnings report re having insider info. , not trading in general.
      1/13/13
    • gwinsto: Buying calls/puts right before earnings is pure gambling when one has no clue whether earnings are positive or negative was my point
      1/13/13
    • realornot: I see. I believe apple either meet or below expectation this time. They need to beat substantially to reverse current falling trend.
      1/13/13
    • gwinsto: Re RIMM,was just wondering if buy the rumour and sell the news applies in this case. That would have been my guess, but I have an open mind
      1/13/13
    • realornot: gwinsto: some will no doubt sell the news. I will measure the situation by then. I will stay with it if nothing goes wrong.
      1/13/13
    • gwinsto: I agree that AAPL needs to beat nicely to reverse the trend, I just question whether there will be a large immediate move down if they meet
      1/13/13
    • gwinsto: or even if they miss as long as it isn't an extreme miss
      1/13/13
    • realornot: I need a miss to win puts option. A meet will give this stock a slight move up then down again.Iwill likely lose with my weekly option play.
      1/13/13
    • realornot: barely miss can be bad. A jerk down is likely. I can then profit.
      1/13/13
    • gwinsto: in light of the negative sentiment, a bare miss could very well tank it, i won't be betting in either direction.
      1/13/13
    • gwinsto: I witnessed an awful lot of interest in AAPL's products this holiday season, so a nice beat is very possible
      1/13/13
    • realornot: Once I have weighted facts vs fiction then I will put my money down. I will play that thru whether results are good or bad.I will adjust acd
      1/13/13
    • realornot: I also see a favorable condition to play puts/shorts even if they meet target earnings. I do not see a short squeeze condition will happen.
      1/13/13