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Fin858

Fin858
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  • 4 Chinese IPOs for the Trading Radar [View article]
    I would look a tad lower than that. Maybe around $22-23.
    Dec 16 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whitney Tilson: Why We're Short Netflix [View article]
    I think a lot of what you naysayers are missing about his argument is that NFLX's valuation implies that barriers to entry are high and will stay high for the future, allowing for very profitable growth.

    The issue is that the barriers to entry for NFLX's model are not high. Instead, they are quite the opposite. NFLX will eventually be at the mercy of the content creators (DIS, NBC, etc.) and NFLX and other content providers will likely experience margins that are depressed. Risk of new entrants and power of suppliers (suppliers of content in this case) are quite high; content providers will eventually take the margin back.
    Dec 16 09:35 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chico's: Solid Company in a Sea of Cheap Retail Stocks [View article]
    yea i understand. more a question still thought the article was good. pretty timely too.

    I would add that when looking at the missy space, both TLB and ANN have been consolidating capacity with store reduction while CHS has been growing WH/BM. I think that there is a real share gain opportunity here as the economy improves. WH/BM is well know within the working middle-class female and employment recover certainly bodes well for CHS's best brand. I also think the margin walk at CHS is the best in the space.
    Dec 16 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Discover: An Overnight Trade With Potential [View article]
    didnt say you aren't popular...just that you have bad ideas about making investments/trades.
    Dec 16 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands: Consistently Misunderstood [View article]
    nice one
    Dec 16 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Lightning Round - Has Ford Run Out of Gas? (12/14/10) [View article]
    The Ford investment thesis can be made in 3 easy steps:

    1. OEMs are a high fixed cost business with large contribution margin but equal high break even. So you need volumes. SAAR at the trough was 10.5M in 2009, 11.5M this year, and will likely be over 12.5M in 2012.

    2. Ford is taking share in the US due to superior products. Yes, they are even taking share from Toyota.

    3. The company is delevering the balance sheet to use FCF (which will be better than GM's) to very shortly, issue a dividend.

    Parting thought: Ford is a great play medium term (1-2 more years) as volumes continue to rise to 16M SAAR in the US. Word of warning though: the labor contracts at domestic OEMs (Ford, GM and Chrysler) are not competitive and I believe significantly hinder the competitiveness of these companies. Once volumes moderate, profits will begin to be eaten away the UAW. Once you figure out which year peak auto sales will occur in the US, sell 6-12 months before that.
    Dec 15 10:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Discover: An Overnight Trade With Potential [View article]
    you can't be a daytrader and have your favorite investor be Warren Buffett; that's just backwards. If you knew anything about Buffett, you'd know his favorite holding period is forever.
    Dec 15 10:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 High Yield Stocks to Consider Now [View article]
    PM is the one to own. It has arguably the strongest ability to raise its payout with its highest FCF yield in the S&P 500.
    Dec 15 10:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Some Smoking Dividend Yields, Look to Tobacco [View article]
    PM is the one out of these to own.

    highest FCF yield in the S&P500 and all that cash goes to share repos and dividend increases.
    Dec 15 10:25 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Thoughts for Investing in 2011 [View article]
    NFLX is a 9B company.

    TWC is a 23B company.

    I see no reason that NFLX will at least be able to come close to that number. As long as NFLX has good relationships with the content providers, they should win out.

    However, Hulu offers an interesting counter example. The need for content distributors is so that they can financial the infrastructure build for content creators to deliver their product, without the content creator taking on the risk. Now that the internet has lower the marginal cost of distributing content, the actual need for content distributors diminishes. I would say that could be a longer term event though (10+ yrs from now.)
    Dec 15 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chico's: Solid Company in a Sea of Cheap Retail Stocks [View article]
    Should have just bought at $8.50 when 38% of their market cap was straight cash.

    Also, why do you use trailing and current earnings? Retailers still have a decent EBIT walk to go if the economy improves; why not use fwd EPS estimates to find fwd PE?
    Dec 15 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's Time to Buy Best Buy [View article]
    who would buy them?

    PE knows returns suck and who knows if they could get a decent exit multiple 5 yrs down the road.
    Dec 15 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's Time to Buy Best Buy [View article]
    The issue with Best Buy is that is now fundamentally clear that they are slowly dying. Here are the reasons:

    1. Inefficient uses of capital. Go to an older Best Buy store and its even more apparent. Over half of the square footage contains things like CDs, DVDs, appliances and software. All these things have extremely low sales turnover. If Best Buy could transform their stores to half the size and focus on mobile, TVs and notebooks, returns would look better.

    2. They are losing share to AMZN, AAPL, NFLX etc. People use iTunes, AMZN, and Netflix to obtain music, TVs, CDs, DVDs, etc. They called out share losses in their most recent call.

    3. International growth might be too expensive. How can they grow outside the US when they will likely need to restructure their base in the US?

    BBY just is not a good company to own. Its structurally too large and needs to shrink which costs money.

    BBY might be the new BKS and will be the classic value trap.
    Dec 15 06:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Las Vegas Sands: Consistently Misunderstood [View article]
    oh man two days of profit, you must make a killing!!
    Dec 14 11:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dang! Dangdang's IPO Not Lost in Translation [View article]
    well it depends. DANG's model probably will have EBIT margins above 6-7%. Look at AMZN, they have NO leverage on the sales growth they generate.

    then look at GOOG. Better margins and better operating leverage. That's why the P/S for YOKU and DANG are so different.
    Dec 14 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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