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  • Delta Air Lines: Will Their Refining Business Or A Price War Tank This Stock? [View article]
    Andrew, I am curious if you your assumption is that Delta's airline-only experienced execs run the refinery. You honestly believe this??? Ever hear of Monroe Energy? So what if Trainer eventually shuts down. The risk is totally worth it. It was cheap and is now producing very significant cost savings. The refinery is not a compelling reason for me to be shorting Delta any more than other airlines, perhaps less so.

    To make your shorting thesis appear more plausible to the uninformed, you conveniently failed to mention anything about the all-time record profits in the last few years at Delta.
    Interestingly, the 2014 record annualized profits occurred with oil prices still over $100 a barrel until almost September. Delta made enough profits in the 3rd quarter to buy 10 Trainers.

    Outside info follows:
    Delta Air Lines said Tuesday that its Trainer refinery in Delaware County posted a $105 million profit in the fourth quarter. The airline expects to save more than $2 billion in fuel costs in 2015 because of the sharp drop in oil prices.

    Delta's fourth-quarter profit beat analysts' estimates. Net income was $649 million, or 78 cents a share, excluding special items. Analysts had expected 77 cents a share. Revenue was $9.65 billion. The carrier's fuel expense declined by $342 million in the latest quarter, driven by lower market prices and higher refinery profits.

    Delta expects "a pretty healthy profit at the refinery" in the first three months of this year, said chief financial officer Paul Jacobson.

    I am not a buyer at the current valuation, but I would not consider shorting it right now, either.
    Jan 27, 2015. 01:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delta Air Lines to use own pilots on London routes [View news story]
    Do not really understand this news.
    Contractually mandatory levels of Delta pilot hours ratio with Virgin code shares is already not being met. Delta has little or no choice in the matter to continue with the flights using Delta airplanes and Delta pilots.
    I see little chance of Delta giving away existing London frequencies to Virgin.
    Virgin code share participation with Delta would need to be significantly reduced for this to even be a possibility.
    I could happen in the next contract if the pilots agree to change the ratio provisions.
    Dec 31, 2014. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delta Air Lines: How New Efficient Aircraft Will Boost Results In The Future (Part 1) [View article]
    Non open-sky city pairs have restrictions on frequency. These slots are tightly controlled and most are already flown to capacity. An additional frequency bidding competition to recapture the total seats may not in the best interests of the airline, much less favored by the countries served.
    Dec 15, 2014. 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Endeavour Silver Earnings [View article]
    The question is at what price level will the producers start on a wide scale to significantly cut, or as a group (with a wink and a nod) hold back production?
    This would put an end to the short paper speculation that is killing all of them. It would be a short term hit, little worse than it is already.

    Would the result not lead to true market price discovery and the price be driven to a level at or well above actual production costs?

    Once the mother of all short squeezes drives the specs out of their positions, the question then becomes will the collusive efforts of our government and the controlling large specs not just drive it into the ground again in support of the all mighty dollar?
    Nov 11, 2014. 10:46 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delta Air Lines: Targeting Operational Efficiency [View article]
    Would be interested to see what David Trainer has to say these days about Delta. His "Bail Out Of Delta Before The Stock Crashes" Seeking Alpha article a couple years ago was highly contributory in a 20% drive down to mid 8's. As I recall, he saw no way out of the debt load and fully expected another bankruptcy in the near future.
    Thankfully, there is a great management team doing a wonderful job and surprising many a naysayer. I do believe they know a bit more about the airline business than most analysts and especially those who make a very good but shady living bashing companies in the media and shorting them for their own profit.

    How about those incredible record-breaking earnings, reducing the debt
    and getting rid of those horrible RJ's?

    Those who bought in between 4 and 7 or so in last 2-5 years are doing very well.
    Aug 31, 2014. 11:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Delta Air Lines Has Taken Off And Won't Be Landing Any Time Soon [View article]
    In order to reply to your psychological question we need to provide more information.

    For clarification, 44 States allow lawful carry of firearms in the common terminal and baggage claim areas of airports. There are federal laws that restrict firearms, knives, and other weapons in the "sterile area" beyond the security checkpoint but the unsecured areas of the terminal are subject to state law.

    Your friends will probably not like that bit of info.

    Only Florida, Va, Ill, N.Dak, OK, and Arkansas make the entire airport terminal off limits, even to carry license holders while armed.

    You all have a much better chance of being struck by lightning or crashing in an airplane than being shot "inside" a secure airport. Won't even mention car wrecks, home workplace accidents etc....

    Great disclaimer. It not just that you may not own it. How about your family, friends, funds, partners, business associates etc.... who may be short.

    To be clear, outside airport security screening is not "in the airport". Your narrative equates the two and remains alarmist.

    Connection through Atlanta, no one exits security.
    That, of course, is where someone could possibly be carrying concealed. It bears repeating, no non-security/law enforcement ever carry firearms inside the passenger area, where your friends will be transiting Atlanta.
    Avoidance for security/safety is unfounded and irrational.

    Your friends must be paralyzed with fear ever leaving their house or walking down the street.
    After all, guess what you will find there? Yeah, lots of people with concealed weapons, unlike "inside an airport".

    So tell me why and how they can rationally justify avoiding a change of planes in Atlanta, from a risk avoidance perspective?

    From tiny rumors large fear grows.
    May 27, 2014. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delta Air Lines Has Taken Off And Won't Be Landing Any Time Soon [View article]
    riskrunner:

    You are completely wrong.

    No weapons will ever be allowed "in the airport" after security screening, where you and your friends would be connecting.

    From tiny rumors and misinformation and large fear and panic grow.
    May 19, 2014. 09:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delta Air Lines beats by $0.05 [View news story]
    Incredible. What are the bashers and short guys saying now?
    Oct 22, 2013. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Senator Charles Schumer wants airlines to reverse their steep increase on flight change fees after Delta Air Lines (DAL -0.5%), United Airlines (UAL -1.1%), American Airlines (AAMRQ.PK), and U.S. Airways (LCC -0.6%) all bumped off their charge to $200 from $150. Last year, the top airlines collected $2.6B in reservation change fees which accounted for a decent portion of the overall growth in the industry. [View news story]
    Thought we went through deregulation in 1978....
    Some of our politicians want to control everything.
    Anybody really think Schumer, and many others, supports the concepts of capitalism, free enterprise or balancing the books?

    Guess we should just turn over all aspects of our economy to the government, as they have such an excellent track record of budgeting and running viable businesses.
    May 20, 2013. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Endeavour Silver (EXK -2.9%) opens sharply lower after reporting Q1 earnings fell 27% and adjusted earnings tumbled 34%, hurt by lower realized gold and silver prices. Revenue actually rose 43% to $69.9M on 1.515M silver oz. and 15,724 gold oz. sold. Cash flow from operations slipped 8%. EXK also says it expects Q2 production to dip “slightly” before recovering in Q3 and growing in Q4. [View news story]
    Thinking the stock price already has been driven down to reflect the decline in silver.
    May 7, 2013. 02:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The squeaky wheel gets the grease as the U.S. House votes to approve a bill to end the furlough of FAA employees. Those that bought airline stocks (FAA) on Monday when overwrought reports of long delays at U.S. airports rattled the sector made a good call. [View news story]
    Think Obama will sign it?
    Apr 27, 2013. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Senators from both parties have introduced legislation aimed at easing the airport congestion and flight delays caused by sequestration. One bill would give the Department of Transportation and FAA the ability to move funds between different accounts in order to reduce the furloughs for air-traffic controllers. The leaves of absence have so far been distributed evenly among all controllers, regardless of whether they work at busy or quiet airports. [View news story]
    Would passengers happily contribute one more dollar to keep their flight running on time if they knew it would go to the controllers?
    Maybe this idea is part of the "behind the scenes" agenda that will soon emerge.
    Apr 25, 2013. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Senators from both parties have introduced legislation aimed at easing the airport congestion and flight delays caused by sequestration. One bill would give the Department of Transportation and FAA the ability to move funds between different accounts in order to reduce the furloughs for air-traffic controllers. The leaves of absence have so far been distributed evenly among all controllers, regardless of whether they work at busy or quiet airports. [View news story]
    Anybody ever wonder why government does not reallocate a little of the over 10 Billion dollars in the aviation trust fund (paid by airlines and passengers) and fix this now.

    The following is straight from the FAA website linked below.

    The Trust Fund's purpose was to establish sources of funding that would increase concurrently with the use of the system, and assure timely and long-term commitments to capacity increases. The Trust Fund was designed to finance investments in the airport and airway system and, to the extent funds were available, cover the operating costs of the airway system as well.

    http://1.usa.gov/XWxr6w
    Apr 25, 2013. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The airline industry (FAA) doesn't think carriers should be fined by the DOT for tarmac delays due to the reduced number of air traffic controllers working this week following mandated furloughs. Two industry groups have filed a motion asking the DOT to suspend the three-year old tarmac rule. [View news story]
    Anybody ever wonder why government does not free up some of the over 10 Billion in the aviation trust fund (paid by airlines and passengers) and fix this now.

    The following is straight from the FAA website linked below.

    The Trust Fund's purpose was to establish sources of funding that would increase concurrently with the use of the system, and assure timely and long-term commitments to capacity increases. The Trust Fund was designed to finance investments in the airport and airway system and, to the extent funds were available, cover the operating costs of the airway system as well.

    http://1.usa.gov/XWxr6w
    Apr 24, 2013. 09:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The airline industry (FAA) doesn't think carriers should be fined by the DOT for tarmac delays due to the reduced number of air traffic controllers working this week following mandated furloughs. Two industry groups have filed a motion asking the DOT to suspend the three-year old tarmac rule. [View news story]
    The problem is that airlines under current FAA guidelines have little idea when they will be able to taxi from the gate. They must be boarded and ready for instantaneous release.
    There is no mechanism in place for the FAA to advise each flight an accurate taxi time so they can avoid inconveniencing the passenger.
    The scheduling mechanism in place are airline schedules, that the FAA is obliged, by definition of their charter, to support.
    This is totally a FAA and administration created problem. A definitive point is being made with the airlines as to whom is really in control.
    Pure and simple, our government is again obstructing free enterprise and holding airline and passengers hostage in pursuit of an not-so-hidden agenda.
    Apr 24, 2013. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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