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  • Rally in mining stocks could set up "bull trap," some analysts say  [View news story]
    dr.Mike, I agree there is plenty of time to buy commodities if thats ones game but there is still Chinas fundamentals to consider. Hundreds and hundreds of millions of people still live in conditions only marginally above 3rd world standards. Despite a planned or stated desire to move to a consumer based economy, the hard work of building a lower middle class lifestyle is far from over. OK there may have been some overbuilding etc but my instinct is that five or six years will see the bulk of overcapacity fully soaked up. Still plenty of froth to blow off however and great caution is required. The miners are getting close to value, maybe 6-18 monthw off a bottom. Service and supply companies still have pockets of overvaluation. Caterpillar springs to mind as a very risky place for the next little while. But that too will pass and CAT will become a great investment as well as a great company.
    Feb 6, 2016. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • President Rubio? What It Could Mean For Investors  [View instapost]
    "a bit early in the election cycle"
    Better to be too early than too late
    Good article, thanks Brett
    Feb 6, 2016. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar Is Beaten Down And Yielding 4.9%  [View article]
    Quite right Hayden. Once inventory run-down finishes and other easy one-offs have been completed (plant closures, layoffs, input price negotiations etc) we will get a better picture of where CAT is at re the future. I have a feeling that it is close, maybe within 12 months. Plenty of time though for another earnings disappointment,bout of pessimism and a sharp leg downwards. Or maybe I am wrong!
    Feb 3, 2016. 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Without A Dividend, What's Left For BP Shareholders?  [View article]
    RS055, great comment. It will get me through the day nicely
    Jan 30, 2016. 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Bullish On Caterpillar  [View article]
    CAT bulls should check out some of the auction houses in Australia to get a sense of the devastation in the mining sector. is just one. Hassalls auctions liquidity services etc are others holding many auctions. There are many more. The common denominator is large numbers of low hour relativley new machines for sale. Hundreds and hundreds are cycling through the auction houses.
    eg. Just one of the adverts run by just one of the companies(smithbroughton) has sometning like(quick count) 60 large caterpillar machines for sale/auction. Graders, excavators, skid steers(under 20 houra on the clock), massive water trucks pad foot and smooth drum rollers by the score. Bull dozers and soil compactors up the ying yang, as they say.Most under 7,000 hours. And all this big gear good for 10's of thousands of hours PLUS PLUS with constant rebuilds. You want an unused 12kw stationary genuine CAT motor? Twenty of the things coming up for sale on Feb 15. Theyll be lucky to make 15c on the dollar. I puchased a 11.8kw Perkins last year for about 25% of new price and am kicking myself because the price of all this stuff is just plummeting.
    I absolutley love CAT the company but I hope for the bulls sake that US construction is all that the author of this articles says it is because every where else is RED INK RED INK!!!!
    I am not picking on CAT of course. Komatsu, hitachi Bell, etc etc are all for sale. Tens of thousands of accommodation complexes stand empty, virtually unsaleable. Formerley inhabited by the guys driving the heavy machinery also for sale.
    Long CAT @ $45 (and I am convinced I will get them)
    PS If you hear of anybody wants 10 or a dozen articulated dump trucks cheap, average 6,200 hours let me know. Woulda been 500k or a maybe 750 delivered new youll probably get em for 30k a piece and terms as well
    Jan 22, 2016. 01:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware When The Bulls Say 'This Time Is Different'  [View article]
    Randy and rrobster these are two of the best comments ever!!
    Jan 20, 2016. 11:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Deflation Monster Has Arrived  [View article]
    I dont know who to believe; I think I'll just pull the bed covers over my head and hope this all blows away.
    Jan 18, 2016. 03:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ's Lahart: This isn't 2008  [View news story]
    I agree Greg, the obvious choice after all else has failed, aggressively let the inflation cat out of the bag.
    Jan 17, 2016. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brace for ugly energy company earnings results, analysts say  [View news story]
    I agree pdunc. Dont know what the bottom is but I do know that we are closer to the bottom than the top!!
    Jan 16, 2016. 06:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro Stock: Don't Be A Sucker  [View article]
    My prediction-: Chinese copies all starting to come out around 3rd quarter in time for Christmas 2016
    Jan 14, 2016. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Up To Our Necks In It  [View article]
    Great article. I can see value in shorting stocks leveraged to commodities. CAT stands out as a company floating on thin air.
    Jan 13, 2016. 03:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat In  [View article]
    Hi Paulo all the amazon episode proves is that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. To quote badly
    Jan 11, 2016. 11:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Complex Systems, Feedback Loops, And The Bubble-Crash Cycle  [View article]
    Very interesting article John. It reminds me of Mandelbrot's work on scaling and fractal geometry. If you have not read him I can recommend his work to you, particularly for an overview,"The Misbehavior of Markets"
    Jan 11, 2016. 06:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Stocks Here, The Sell-Off Is Way Overdone - Bezek's Daily Briefing  [View article]
    Hi Ian, I am not sure Trump has any ideological views much. I suspect he is just blindly seeking power for powers sake. Good work if you can get it, i guess
    Jan 11, 2016. 05:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Of The Commodities To Fall: Why Cattle Prices Are Heading Much Lower  [View article]
    HI MR H, Great article on a little covered area!!
    I thought that US breeder cattle numbers were at a 50 year low. Is this incorrect or is it not relevant? Is there more supply coming down the tracks, maybe from Canada or Mexico? Is the 6% increase in Live Swine imports from Canada.? And finally is any of this related to US dollar strenght? ie Maybe the cattle market is less correlated to the domestic currency wheras other commodities, being more globally traded have more downward pressure placed on them during a period of US dollar strength???
    Jan 11, 2016. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment