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  • Aussie And Iron Ore Prices [View article]
    Hi Marc
    So are you saying that the AUD decline may not be structural and could in fact be (relatively) short lived.
    Thanks for the article
    Sep 12, 2014. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Caterpillar's 17% Dividend Increase Make It A Buy? [View article]
    Hi Norman
    You make a very good argument for your, undoubtedly successful, method of investing and I totally agree that market timing is difficult. I also re-invest dividends. I just make the point that current commodity prices put large chunks of the production base in a loss making position, though of course you are correct that we appear to be at the base of the cycle
    Jun 22, 2014. 01:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Caterpillar's 17% Dividend Increase Make It A Buy? [View article]
    Cat bulls should recognise that the expansion phase in the resource sector is ALMOST completely at an end. (in the short to medium term at least) Past performance of CAT is likely to be irrelevant to future earnings. The sales of second hand, low hour heavy machines is increasing rapidly particularly in markets like Australia as is bankruptcies of contractors and sackings of employees in the resource sectors. My instinct(no numbers to back this up at this stage) is that machine capacity utilisation is falling rapidly as well. Prices of iron ore and coal are at 5-7 year lows and greenfield project expansion is at an end, particularly in the mid market. This does not seem to be reflected in CAT share price. It could be that other sectors could drive CAT earnings but the pain is just beginning in some of its segments. I would advise EXTREME caution. Cat is a world class company, in fact THE world class company but some good economic news out of China and Asia is needed before any informed speculation about forward demand for CAT products.
    Jun 20, 2014. 05:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar Is An Avoid At Current Levels [View article]
    CAT bulls should start looking at Receivership and second hand sales in Australia and other resource type markets for heavy machinery. There are significant numbers of low hour heavy machines being sold and operating companies going into bankruptcy. The expansion phase has stopped ALMOST completely. Though there are exceptions, by and large I think that, the outlook for at least the next 18 months to, perhaps three years is very grim for heavy machinery sales to the coal, iron ore, and heavy construction industry, at least in certain markets. That being said, there may be other areas/economies that can hold up growth for this world class company.
    Jun 20, 2014. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Number 1 Risk To Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    Hi John,
    I just discovered your article on BRK. Congratulations on one of the few truly original articles on this company in a very very long time.Interesting of course, that original subject matter is often not appreciated for what it is and many commentators have gotten bogged down in detail rather than appreciate this for what it is(I think) -: a creative and thoughtful attempt to look forward. Reminds me of the ironical old saying "wise men look backwards, but only fools look ahead"
    Some of the "wise men" don't appear to see the unique scenario/possibility you are trying to articulate. I agree that there can't help but be increased scrutiny of BRK in coming years and that therein lies uncertainty.
    Jun 14, 2014. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Buy Dividend-Paying Stocks? [View article]
    Off the top of my head parameter number 3 would surely be mathematically impossible to achieve in the long term?? Or am i missing something?
    Apr 18, 2014. 08:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The $127 Billion Market Asteroid [View article]
    Tack, Tell that to all the fundies holding garbage on their books in 2007 which they believed was worth something; only to wake up one morning and find it worth nothing; and being over leveraged, took a bath they'll be writing about for decades. Your above comment would be worth something if everybody was investing on margin in blue chips like P&G. But they are manifestly not. To paraphrase Buffett, "nothing strips you bare like debt"
    Apr 17, 2014. 05:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yielding Kraft Is A Hold Right Now At A Yield Of 3.94% [View article]
    BTW good article
    Jan 12, 2014. 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yielding Kraft Is A Hold Right Now At A Yield Of 3.94% [View article]
    Why would you "admit you were wrong" over something as immaterial as a .43% loss vs the 1.83% gain of the s&p in a little over a month?
    Stressing over a one month performance is waaay to short term. Revisit your investment in a year or more once the company has a chance to cement an earnings or ROE trend but not before. Otherwise in my view you are not investing but gambling
    Jan 12, 2014. 02:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Vs. USA: And The Winner Is... [View article]
    An important point, often overlooked is so called"soft power". In the last 60 years communist China has forght hot wars with many of its neighbours and is currently in high level diplomatic conflict with several others over border disputes. The so called "nine dashed line" in which China claims the bulk of the South china Sea is an open festering wound on any relationships which it may wish to develop with its neighbours. The Central government, while smart and focused on lifting the people out of poverty, is also xenophobic, greedy and aggressive. Its immediate neighbours know this and DO NOT TRUST IT. Everyone wants Chinas money and manufacturing prowess, but not much else. They look back, and are seeking to recreate some glorious ancient past, but the political system has nothing to offer any one in a western democracy. And that is why China will never rule the world; they can't rule themselves
    Dec 8, 2013. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Terra Nitrogen: Long-Term Holders Face Considerable Downside [View article]

    I agree jd9000. Estimatred recently proven reserves in Surat Basin in australia are approx. 30,000TCF
    Sep 12, 2013. 04:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Westpac, Australia Is The Same As U.S. Or Spain A Few Years Ago [View article]
    Also Westpac up about 50%-60% since this article written, ALTHOUGH the aussie dollar is down 15-20cents.
    Aug 18, 2013. 04:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's The Risk Premium, Stupid! [View article]
    Just so I understand, are you calling the USD higher?
    Jul 9, 2013. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: Stay Cautious As Upside Is Limited [View article]
    Ironic that the comments make more sense than the article
    May 17, 2013. 03:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • H&R Block: Grab A Safe 4% Yield [View article]
    just found your article. Excellent points you raise. I have had HRB on my watch list for some time and agree now might be the time to move.
    Feb 20, 2013. 05:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment