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  • Sell Westpac, Australia Is The Same As U.S. Or Spain A Few Years Ago [View article]
    Commonwealth Bank of Australia has just announced a record full year profit up 11%
    Aug 14 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Westpac, Australia Is The Same As U.S. Or Spain A Few Years Ago [View article]
    Ok Paulo. I disagree but all credit to you for having an opinion and putting it out there. If things pan out the way you say then I will be the first in line to credit you!!
    Aug 9 01:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Westpac, Australia Is The Same As U.S. Or Spain A Few Years Ago [View article]
    There are two types of investors. Those who see the world as it is, and those who see it as they would like it to be. To even put the Australian economy or the banks in the same article as Spain or the US is a bizarre mis-reading of real world economy as it currently stands. You have glossed over or ignored so many fundamental differences in fiduciary competence, regulatory oversight, sub-prime lending,mortgage stress, CDO issuance, etc etc that this article is caught in a time warp. It re-hashes stuff that has burbled on about the Australian economy for the last three and a half years.
    If there is some new and original insight that you have you should share it rather than re-visiting ancient history.
    Even a cursory search of Seeking Alpha turns up articles going back years on this same subject. Eventually some one may turn out to be right but I am sorry Paulo, It is not going to be you. (even a stopped clock is right twice a day)At least not for the reasons that you state.
    PS I dont mean to be rude and I concede that one has to go back to the 1970,s (Japanese industrialisation and the last commodity boom)to see a similar situation unfolding, and this is just to far back for most.
    Aug 8 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Worthy Safe Haven: Australian Debt [View article]
    Great article. I would disagree slightly about the fiscal and lending prudence of oz banks. They have been the absolute model of rectitude compared to their peers around the world. Also with the savings rate of consumers sitting at around 10% and unemployment so low their appears nothing ,barring a Chinese implosion, that would trigger a major asset or "bubble deflation" on the horizon. They have largely cleaned up their books over the last few years. Mortgage stress is in around 1 to 1.5% (I think) Very low anyway
    Aug 7 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Westpac, Australia Is The Same As U.S. Or Spain A Few Years Ago [View article]
    Australia is almost the last AAA rated economy in the WORLD
    Government debt is 22% GDP (lowest in the western world)
    Unemployment is 5%
    Savings rate is 10% and consumer debt is falling
    Housing is NOT freefalling but has remained RELATIVLEY stable for the last few years
    Inflation is 3 to 4 %
    The banks are down 25-45% from peak
    And you guys want to go SHORT
    Seriously you want to short the 2nd strongest economy in the world because China (The strongest economy in the world) has a growth rate which has dropped 2% to 7%
    Yes the music may end one day but the falling knife is not even in sight of the ground
    In short, this article is highly speculative at best and utter garbage at worst
    Aug 7 07:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Reasons The Australian Dollar Is Doomed [View article]
    This article is misguided. The question should be what are the positives in the rest of the world which will prevent the AUD going much higher. Much much higher???
    The RBA cut a couple times because of Europe
    Inflation is 3to 4% NOT 1.5
    Housing is expensive BUT demonstrably not in a bubble
    Bulk commodities are dropping in price BUT from an extremely high top
    US strength is probably positive for theAUD due to pull through demand for Chinese exports.
    Unemployment rate is 5%
    Consumer demand is weak BUT savings rate is 10% and consumer debt is falling
    Government debt is 22%GDP lowest in the western world
    etc etc
    You will join a long line of people who have lost their shirts betting against the AUD , at least in the foreseeable future!!
    Aug 7 07:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australian Dollar Confirms Stock Rally As It Re-Emerges As A Leading 'Risk-On' Currency [View article]
    A large part of the recent economic weakness in Aust has to do with the collapse of retail spending over the last couple of years. This has flashed through the non-resource sector. The strong resource sector spending has covered up this hole to a large extent but nevertheless broader inflation readings have been muted.
    Consumers have taken the opportunity to reduce debt and the saving rate has jumped to nearly 10%. This is an unprecedentedly high number in modern times.
    Despite such a hit to economic activity house prices have NOT collapsed and unemployment remains stubbornly around 4-6%
    Very few to no mass sackings.
    Bank lending for real estate tightened up considerably in 2008/9.
    Many developers have already gone to the wall and an orderly "cleaning out" has been progressing for the last few years. If the AUD falls real estate will not be the catalyst.
    Commodity prices for the heavy bulks are falling rapidly at the moment and the next couple of quarters will tell the story of the effect on the AUD. If, and it is a big but possible if, the AUD sails through these current storms then I believe the upside to the AUD is ENORMOUS. Half a dozen central banks are investigating AUD bond purchases and it could be that the Aussie "de-couples " from a strict commodity correlation and due to fiscal and macro strengths becomes a safe haven currency, even if only for a few years. There is also the possibility that US economic strength is positive and not negative for the AUD. This is counter intuitive to recent thinking .
    Aug 4 06:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australian Dollar Clings To Breakout As Current Catalysts Support Upward Trend [View article]
    Additionally the german budesbank and about 5-6 other central banks are investigating AUD bonds
    Aug 4 05:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence Mounts: U.S. Real Estate Market Has Passed Bottom, Entered Recovery [View article]
    Thanks for a well reasoned article. I agree that fundamentals appear to have swung towards a stabilisation in the market and over coming quarters we may even see strong inventory depletion as the banks get used to more solid fundamentals. Household formation is getting stronger and eventually the penny will drop and people/finance providers will realise that the spread between rental yield and ownership costs/mortgage rates is unnaturally wide
    Jul 25 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After 4 Challenging Years, MLPs Remain Excellent Long Term Buys [View article]
    Is there someone who still believes in the efficient market hypothesis?
    I f so they are a very rare bird indeed!!
    Jun 24 03:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Following The Legendary Templeton Strategy Full Circle Back To Japan [View article]
    Great and timely article.
    Jun 17 05:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Like Auctions? Check Out The World's Largest Industrial Auctioneer: Ritchie Bros. [View article]
    Good article John. I have been researching RBA for a short while. One Question. Does RBA own there auction sites or have any formal real estate policy?
    Jun 8 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Commodities Rebound [View article]
    Why the reference to 1998?? If you are referring to the Asian currency crisis then you will recall that While all around them fell China alone stood firm and and to a large extent provided a stabilising influence. Of course their economy was much smaller then but even so Malaysia followed suit after a while and their two countries came out of the crisis in very good shape. The central government, whatever their other faults, have proven themselves very effective economic managers, far better than our governments in the west.
    Jun 1 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready For The Commodities Rebound [View article]
    The China boom will end one day but I don't think we are there yet. The west of the country is so undeveloped compared to the major 20 cities in the east that I personally think we may have a decade to run yet. Exactly how this plays out in the commodity market/US dollar arena is another question entirely. If the central government succeeds in their efforts to de-couple the pricing of commodities from their pricing in dollars then much of the argument over the effect of china on world growth will be rendered meaningless. Politically no one really trusts the chinese government but financially they have managed to engineer a slowdown in the housing sector in the eastern 20 while ramping up investment in the west which if they mange to kickstart effectively(and they have a good track record) should underpin many years of growth.
    A further round of QE in the US runs the risk of unleashing inflation and potentially a savage down-leg in the US$
    Good article.
    Jun 1 10:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Focus On China, Not Europe [View article]
    It strikes me that the Central Government has so much to lose in the event of a meltdown that they would do WHATEVER it takes to prevent a collapse aka Lehman Bros. I admit totally that That is no basis on which to formulate an investment thesis but, as with much in China, guesswork is much of what we have to base opinions on. I sure hope for ALL our sakes you are wrong Cam. But I have no real idea!!
    May 29 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment