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  • Sell Westpac, Australia Is The Same As U.S. Or Spain A Few Years Ago [View article]
    Also Westpac up about 50%-60% since this article written, ALTHOUGH the aussie dollar is down 15-20cents.
    Aug 18, 2013. 04:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's The Risk Premium, Stupid! [View article]
    Asbytec,
    Just so I understand, are you calling the USD higher?
    Jul 9, 2013. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola: Stay Cautious As Upside Is Limited [View article]
    Ironic that the comments make more sense than the article
    May 17, 2013. 03:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • H&R Block: Grab A Safe 4% Yield [View article]
    just found your article. Excellent points you raise. I have had HRB on my watch list for some time and agree now might be the time to move.
    Feb 20, 2013. 05:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Reasons The Australian Dollar Is Doomed [View article]
    update anyone???
    Feb 13, 2013. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Finally Bit The Bullet And Bought Citigroup [View article]
    Good point stock major. Possibly not, but they only fell 40-50 % and remained reasonably well capitalised through 2008-10. They may not get the explosive gains in share price you are hoping for going forward but the risk of a catastrophic loss of capital was never present either.
    Oct 28, 2012. 09:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Finally Bit The Bullet And Bought Citigroup [View article]
    There are problems of course and challenges but a micky mouse banking system and to much debt arent some of them
    Oct 26, 2012. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Finally Bit The Bullet And Bought Citigroup [View article]
    Australia has a houshold savings rate of 10%
    Unemployment of 5.75%
    Rock solid banking system
    There is no housing bubble but it certainly is flatlining
    Household formation is strong Consumer spending is down but this is largley because savings rate is up, resulting in a lowering of banks cost of funds due to more more deposits.
    Compulsory superranuation scheme for all citizens started in the early 1980s means unfunded pensions are LESS of a problem going forward(though not totaly solved by any means)
    etc etc etc
    Oct 26, 2012. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Epic Australian Bust [View article]
    Alert but not alarmed should be your watchword on Australia
    Oct 25, 2012. 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Epic Australian Bust [View article]
    Australian banks are very conservative compared to pre gfc US and particularly Spanish and Italian banks. And since the example of dodgy lending overseas they have become even more conservative.
    In some bubble prone tourist type areas Gold Coast,Sunshine Coast etc I have heard that 50% deposits are required at some banks, Yet still the major parts of the market keep chugging quietly along, up 2% one quarter, down the next. And all the while for the last few years rents have been rising, household formation strong, unemployment not exhibiting major sign of stress. (yet) Exports fundamentally strong(though currently under price pressure in some areas)
    I agree the banks may have funding issues but if you were a foreign investor wouldn't you want to keep investing in a prudentially sound, high yielding, low debt economy like Australia's.
    Oct 25, 2012. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Epic Australian Bust [View article]
    Sorry, I didn' mean to imply they were solely funded by deposits, But the fact remains that over the last couple of years deposit funding has taken up an enormous amount of the banks funding slack. In a way I agree that Australias economy may look like a case of "least worst" but this doesnt give enough credit to the underlying positives.
    Look I am not trying to be smart, but there is little real NEW evidence of a housing bubble about to burst. I know that in all bubbles probably the same thing is always said. It is now 5 years since the GFC housing crash in US and Europe. If housing was going to deflate under its own weight, then dont you think it would have already? New external shocks MAY come along to trigger a fall(they may be already on the way), but currently the market and the economy is at the very least "muddling along" quite nicely.
    You seem to be using a "what goes up must come down" argument rather than fundamentally analysing the positives.
    Oct 25, 2012. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Epic Australian Bust [View article]
    Sorry, if unemployment suddenly rose ie the % unemplyed rose
    Oct 24, 2012. 03:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Epic Australian Bust [View article]
    Of course they would drop rates like a stone if unemployment suddenly fell because of external or internal shocks but this would also drop the exchange rate, another positive shock absorber for an export oriented economy like Australia,s
    Oct 24, 2012. 03:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Epic Australian Bust [View article]
    Mahoney,
    dividends wont evaporate precisely because people wont stop paying their mortgages. Where the pain is being felt is instead in consumer discretionary spending(retail etc). Savings rate in Australia is around 10% currently. One of the highest rates in the western world, and up markedly from a couple of years ago. This money is of course going into the bank as deposits and lowering the banks cost of funds, a positive feedback loop.
    Also, housing starts never took off the way they did in Europe particularly and indeed Treasury believes (rightly or wrongly) that there is an underlying deficit of housing supply , so while rents are rising in most major markets they are being very cautious about lowering interest rates lest they set off another housing boom. This despite softening commodity prices.
    Oct 24, 2012. 03:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Underlying Disaster In Europe Accelerating: Spain's Finances Collapsing [View article]
    Fixed exchange rates CAN work but the EU lacks an Income equalisation mechanism. Until it rectifies this then they are taring down the barrel
    Sep 27, 2012. 04:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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108 Comments
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