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Dr. Stocks-PHD Twenty year Wall Street veteran. Hollywoods direct line to Wall Street. Specialize in market timing and predictive modeling. Follow my updates via twitter/tkathlinastocks and at my blog
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    On March 19th I indicated the GOLD bull run was over for now.

    The following chart showing a bearish reversal, with a bear wedge and downside EW1 target of $1500 was posted.

    We technically chart GOLD on year over year, week over week. Doing it this way will pull out some recurring patterns.

    A 21 week Fib sequence chart, June/July 2011 to June/July 2012 shows significant highs at Fib weeks 5, 8, 13. Expect Fib week 21, the next Fib week in the sequence, to also bring in a significant HIGH, not a low; consistent with the previous week cycles. (Notice I have marked the EW counts in Roman numerals, showing the completion of EW1)

    Slow stochastic at the 50% and 80% levels marked previous FIB week highs. We will watch for this to line up with FIB week 21; along with calculated retrace prices between $1590 and $1680.

    Once these targets are hit, EW wave 2 will be completed and impulse EW3 down will begin. I will provide downside targets at that time.

    The put/call ratio backs up our bear market in GOLD thesis. As the price has moved lower, the put to call ratio has gotten more BULLISH; which is the opposite of what brings about bottoms.

    This extreme bullishness in GOLD will help end EW2 and usher in a EW3 sell off.


    Put/Call ratio suggest GOLD has much more room to fall.

    Our EW1 low projections from March came in near the exact price. Now we are awaiting EW2 to work off some oversold conditions before a major EW3 impulse down move takes GOLD substantially lower.

    Tim Kathlina

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: GLD
    Jun 11 2:41 PM | Link | Comment!

    This 1st SPY chart considers the possibility of a 1st wave EW1 completion.

    Noted in my last post, the overlap and sub wave numbers do line up for this probability. My concern for this is the FAST move back towards the 50% retrace level. This is day 3 and markets have already retraced 38% of the 5 sub waves.

    Any trend allows for one to four day counter trends; even up to seven days. Therefore, the market is still within this allowable range, yet has already retraced a distance that a normal second wave would take at least two weeks to a month to complete.

    In other words, what I am saying is the time and distance doesn't sit well with me to validate this count.

    Short term traders use RSI<2>, overbought above 90, oversold below 5, for potential early warning of turns.

    This fast move, within the 4 day counter trend allowable time frame, already overbought at 90 on RSI<2>, and reaching close to 50% retrace; feels more like a fast counter trend and not a completion of EW1, moving into EW2.

    Next SPY chart I have noted a trend channel, with RSI<2> +90 tops and <5 lows. Since EW is conflicting at this point, lets stick with this trend channel until proven otherwise-leaving off any EW counts.

    If this market can get past 7 days and take out 61% of the decline, this is not a bear market.

    Tim Kathlina

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: SPY
    Jun 07 10:59 AM | Link | Comment!

    Yesterday the markets got CNBS to call for complete bail out of Europe and a leading FED official to call for massive stimulus accommodations.

    No surprise this morning, despite back tracking from other FED officials and the ECB doing nothing, futures risk-on is still in play.

    The question: Have we reached EW1 bottom?

    EW suggest that sub wave five can or will equal sub wave one-as one clue. Looking at SPY we can see wave i was 7 points, and wave five has moved down 7 points to the 200 day moving average.

    We have to assume it is possible that WAVE 1 has been completed.

    In May, I posted this KAGI chart of the 2008 SPY bear move; suggesting that this is the road map that we should consider.

    In 2008, a Presidential election year and the last bear market, the markets topped in May, and moved lower into ending WAVE 1-end of June, first of July. 

    Fibonacci sequence noted on the next SPY chart, suggest the 2008 scenario is still in play.

    Starting at the top, day zero, the 8th day completed sub 2, the 13th day completed sub three.

    The next FIB sequence is 21 days, which counts out to June 19th. Per FIB theory, SPY trend change wont be until the next FIB ending date of June 19th; 21 days past the last FIB ending time, 13 days.


    EW theory allows for completion of EW1 when sub one equaled to sub five.

    The 2008 bear road map and FIB number sequence suggest EW1 completion sometime around June 19th or early July; this is still our preferred scenario.

    Tim Kathlina

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: SPY
    Jun 06 9:28 AM | Link | Comment!
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