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TS Nelson

TS Nelson
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  • Why This Is An Important Week For Germany [View article]
    You could not make this up: first Germany is asked to do more to increase it's domestic demand. The Government raised the minimum wage in July this year to 8.50 Euro, at least 2.50 Euro to high in my opinion.
    Now that, not surprisingly, the economy is in consequence slowing down (plus the sanctions against Russia are hurting exports) "experts" are demanding more stimulus from the ECB.
    To put it more clearly: first one arm of the government throws a wrench into the works by raising minimum wage above market level, then another arm of government is supposed to make up for it by flooding the market with cheap money.
    The source of all this nonsense: the theories of John Maynard Keynes.
    Nov 11, 2014. 01:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed weighs change in statement wording [View news story]

    All those are questions that a good obedient citizen of this brave new world does not ask.
    Oct 27, 2014. 05:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed weighs change in statement wording [View news story]
    If investors are so easily spooked by a mere change of words it implies they are in a vulnerable position otherwise their reaction would be more robust.
    Vulnerable here means probably highly leveraged. This condition is inherently unstable and eventually some event or other will kick off the avalanche.
    It's not a question of "if" but "when".
    Oct 27, 2014. 03:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: ECB considering corporate bond purchases [View news story]
    This is the same ABS program that the ECB has discussed and announced month ago. It has little to do with QE.
    It is the same recycled announcement from last Friday.
    Oct 21, 2014. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, issues strong guidance [View news story]
    Revenue in China fell, iPad's continue to decline (contrary to expectations) and a lot of Apple bulls here expected sales of more than 40 million iPhones.
    No dividend increase no share buybacks.
    This is not a "blow out" quarter. It's meeting expectations and only just.
    Apple is increasingly turning into a one trick pony.
    Many consumers probably bought the iphone 5 instead of waiting for the 6 because they thought "There is not going to be a huge difference".
    And they are right.
    For a company which once put pride into being the market leader in terms of design, the iPhone 6 is very conservative, almost boring.
    It looks like a magnified version of earlier iPhones.
    That is not good enough.
    I expect maybe one more bumper quarter due to the Christmas season before it's downhill for Apple. Complacency and risk aversion will be punished by consumers who expect cutting edge stuff from Apple.
    I remain short Apple.
    Oct 20, 2014. 05:08 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry +5.4% on fresh Lenovo rumor [View news story]
    Yes. 5 bn is a relatively low market capitalization in relation to their media presence. Hence any rumors are amplified and lead to strong movements in the share price.
    Just for clarification: I hold a BBRY long position, but I believe hat BBRY will be able to earn its higher share price rather than trading on rumors.
    Oct 20, 2014. 01:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry +5.4% on fresh Lenovo rumor [View news story]
    I don't believe it. That rumor has been used before to bounce the stock around. Because that's what it is: a relatively low cap stock with high media presence, slightly negative cash flow (but not too bad) and resulting high volatility.
    In short, a traders dream, a rumor a downgrade an upgrade anything will bounce this stock around 5% in one day. So those traders with the means and connections do exactly that. Ignore this.
    Oct 20, 2014. 01:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Removing The FED Premium [View article]
    I think there is a general consensus that QE increases inequality by increasing asset prices which are mostly owned by the "have's" whereas the "have not's" struggle to buy assets with their devalued money.
    Thus Yellen's comments in Friday's speech are clearly pointing towards an end of QE. Of course the financial establishment will use its muscle to influence policy makers and public opinion.
    But I'm convinced that QE is at an end.
    Oct 19, 2014. 01:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GSEs near deal to re-ignite mortgage lending [View news story]
    A side note: Germany has over the last couple of decades never experienced a real estate bubble, because mortgages are a deal between customers and banks, no taxpayer funded dumping of dodgy mortgages here.
    In contrast to the US with Fannie and Fred and the UK with its "Help to buy" scheme.
    To use taxpayers money to support people in purchasing a house is a prime example of a government overextending its services and distorting markets.
    Oct 17, 2014. 04:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint launches $5/month iPhone 6 promo [View news story]
    I always wondered whether a sudden drop in popularity of the iPhone would be a financial threat to carriers which, in the heat of 2012, might have over committed themselves to Apple.

    This here is the answer.
    Oct 14, 2014. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Williams not averse to additional QE [View news story]
    If anything the Fed's Williams has been counterproductive in the sense that he definitely scared some shorts away. In any declining market it is the short sellers who put a floor under the prices because they have to buy to lock in their profits.

    So in scaring them away Mr Williams has probably made the potential drop steeper and the floor lower. Nice work Mr Williams.
    Oct 14, 2014. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Williams not averse to additional QE [View news story]
    If they don't have the stomach to exit QE now, with unemployment low and the economy is reasonable shape, the FED will never exit it.
    They didn't even wait for a full correction, which is still consistent with a bull market. A bit of a drop a lively volatility and the FED bureaucrats already get jittery.

    There is no such thing as indefinite QE. There is two possible end points for QE: a voluntary exit in time which leaves the currency inflated but intact. The economy might show signs of cold turkey.
    And than there is the other end point of QE where the money supply has been increased to a degree that it ceases to be money.
    It's either one or the other.
    Oct 14, 2014. 01:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Struggling With Limited Passport Availability [View article]
    I don't think that a lack of supply will immediately turn customers away. Because there is nowhere they can turn to. This is a truly unique device, well worth a couple of weeks waiting.
    Oct 14, 2014. 01:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese iPhone 6 pre-orders reportedly top 20M [View news story]
    I tried to follow up the links but eventually you end up on the QQ homepage which is all Chinese. The most interesting information is missing: does a pre order involve a deposit a money transfer of any kind? Hence the share price reaction is muted.
    Oct 13, 2014. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Secular Stagnation In... Germany? [View article]
    That they build Panzers instead of cars had a lot to do with keynesian money printing. Already Lenin knew that " in order to destroy bourgeois society you need to destroy their money."

    If you live in the US there is a chance that you will experience first hand what Lenin meant. A small chance and I hope that long term cool heads prevail within the Federal Reserve.
    Oct 12, 2014. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment