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The Green Swan

The Green Swan
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  • Highlights from Lululemon's ICR XChange presentation [View news story]
    What has escaped main stream investment commentary is three factors. 1) yogis view Lululemon as hip company but are not impressed witn Lululemon's lack of evironmental consideration in its choice of materials and 2) its manufacturing labour chain is not fair trade. Yoga brings about greater awareness, and mindfulness. And to cater to yogis fair trade and the environment are important considerations. 3) Its not the big multinationals that are eating Lulu, but the small boutiques that are nibbling at the pie. I have been short Lululemon for three months and will remain short, until same store sales improve or valuation reflects the decline in same store sales.
    Jan 15 06:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ECB will continue emergency liquidity assistance for Cypriot banks if requested, according to a statement on the central bank's website. In the meantime, markets recover from a minor morning panic as Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem walks back from comments which seemingly could have started a bank run on the Continent. S&P 500 -0.3%[View news story]
    well you left it there...
    mindlessly trusting the bank.
    assuming the governement had your back.
    collecting above market interest rates without asking questions.
    well, both were in worse shape than you.
    sometimes you need to do blood work to determine health or look at leverage, asset health etc.
    things are not as they appear on the surface.
    the government could raise taxes, sell assets, but is instead going after the sleepy enablers that did not question management.
    Mar 25 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Inc: This Hedge Fund Just Went Activist [View article]
    My humble view, is that no major healthcare company is going to buy Vivus. Yes, the market for weight loss drugs is enormous. But, the risk profile of their major weight loss drug is simply, too steep for the European regulators, potential mothers, or any rational company. Further the patent life of its weight loss drug is short and one may buy two generic drugs and achieve the same effects.

    Consider, Gilead Sciences (GILD) or Celgene (CELG).

    Gilead, has a new drug to treat Hepatitis with excellent phase III results and this compliments their best in class Cancer and HIV therapies.

    Celgene has an excellent cancer drug that is broadening its treatments categories, they have annnounced excellent phase 3 trial results for pancreatic cancer, with full details of the study to be released in early January.

    I am long both Gilead and Celgene.
    Nov 18 06:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment