The Green Swan

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  • A Short Squeeze May Be Coming On Amira Nature Foods As It Fights Fraud Allegations In Court  [View article]
    Great article.

    Given Amira grows, processes and also buys processed rice to meet customer demand. As long as wholesale rice are modest relative to retail, they will earn a decent spread. While retail prices are "sticky", wholesale prices like many commodities have been lower and stable over the last year. Which benefits Amira more than competitors that process everything they sell.

    Further, low oil prices will provide a major tail wind to margins, while extra audit and legal costs a minor and temporary headwind, to be cost and sales focus.

    Like Green Mountain Coffee tough to prove inventory and sales timing validity. Minor variations work themselves out over time.

    Amira is one part commodity rice processor/trader, one part sales machine, one part branding and organic.

    To truly confirm the long side we need to see management buying more stock and taking more stock instead of cash as compensation and no self-dealing. Clearly they are under scrutiny, which should help shareholders in the long run.
    Dec 30, 2015. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitbit plans 21M-share offering; shares now -7.2%  [View news story]
    Fitbit reminds me of Research in Motion. Great product with leading market share, in a high growth category, but the competition is heating up, suggesting margin pressure ahead and an overhang for the stock. It looks like insiders are trying to sell before its too late. Multiple compression is likely ahead. I am short Fitbit (FIT) via options.
    Nov 2, 2015. 06:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Still No Reason To Own Amira Nature Foods  [View article]
    The CEO owns 76.7% of the company or 27.5 million shares. Based upon A purchase of 1.5 million shares recently and Yahoo data of year end shares outstanding.
    Feb 19, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Still No Reason To Own Amira Nature Foods  [View article]
    does the CEO's family own 64% of the shares outstanding?
    Feb 18, 2015. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eldorado Gold -20% as Greece's new government slams mining project  [View news story]
    mines need to be adequately away from downstream population bases. water supply and evironmental concerns are real. most gold is used to produce jewelery or sitting in a vault, which the world does not need more of. copper on the other hand serves many useful purposes.

    the current government in greece is unstable, and within the year there could be another election.
    Jan 31, 2015. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eldorado Gold -20% as Greece's new government slams mining project  [View news story]
    Romanians rejected development of a gold mine, why? environmental concerns, local opposition to moving an entire village. Government of the people, by the people, for the people. Holes in the ground and environmental degradation is not sustainable economic development.
    Jan 30, 2015. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar: After A Big Drop, Is This Stock A Buy?  [View article]
    1. The EPS revision trend is clearly negative. Consensus EPS for 2015 needs to fall about 30% to be in line with management guidance.
    2. Resource price weakness in energy and metals suggests demand for earth moving will be negative and Caterpillar will need to discount prices to move inventory and shut down any high cost operations. We are in the bust phase for resources after a material supply side over adjustment.
    3. With the Yen down 50% in the last two years and the Euro down over 20% its competitors have a tailwind.
    4. A multiple of 10 times mid-cycle earnings of $7.00 seems reasonable.
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Investors Be Buying Civeo Alongside Greenlight?  [View article]
    my quick perspective.

    1) It is a spinoff. And now a marginal position for many shareholders. it is far easier for many to sell - rather than look, think, and add especially if it will be a Canadian company. A massive shareholder rotation from U.S. to Canadian owners is underway. With the Canadians no where in sight yet. Management will likely capitalize on the weakness and load up on shares at some point.

    2) Oil and coal prices are is bear markets and suggests a retraction in earnings and cash flow until energy prices pick up.

    3) CVEO could convert into a Canadian REIT and trade at a significantly higher multiple. the average canadian reit trades around 14 times FFO. BUt, CVEO is cyclical and the long-term land value is marginal given the level of pollution and industrial pillaging nearby. And thus it deserves a discount to most REITs and 10 times average cycle FFO seems reasonable.
    Nov 14, 2014. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Highlights from Lululemon's ICR XChange presentation  [View news story]
    What has escaped main stream investment commentary is three factors. 1) yogis view Lululemon as hip company but are not impressed witn Lululemon's lack of evironmental consideration in its choice of materials and 2) its manufacturing labour chain is not fair trade. Yoga brings about greater awareness, and mindfulness. And to cater to yogis fair trade and the environment are important considerations. 3) Its not the big multinationals that are eating Lulu, but the small boutiques that are nibbling at the pie. I have been short Lululemon for three months and will remain short, until same store sales improve or valuation reflects the decline in same store sales.
    Jan 15, 2014. 06:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ECB will continue emergency liquidity assistance for Cypriot banks if requested, according to a statement on the central bank's website. In the meantime, markets recover from a minor morning panic as Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem walks back from comments which seemingly could have started a bank run on the Continent. S&P 500 -0.3%[View news story]
    well you left it there...
    mindlessly trusting the bank.
    assuming the governement had your back.
    collecting above market interest rates without asking questions.
    well, both were in worse shape than you.
    sometimes you need to do blood work to determine health or look at leverage, asset health etc.
    things are not as they appear on the surface.
    the government could raise taxes, sell assets, but is instead going after the sleepy enablers that did not question management.
    Mar 25, 2013. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Inc: This Hedge Fund Just Went Activist  [View article]
    My humble view, is that no major healthcare company is going to buy Vivus. Yes, the market for weight loss drugs is enormous. But, the risk profile of their major weight loss drug is simply, too steep for the European regulators, potential mothers, or any rational company. Further the patent life of its weight loss drug is short and one may buy two generic drugs and achieve the same effects.

    Consider, Gilead Sciences (GILD) or Celgene (CELG).

    Gilead, has a new drug to treat Hepatitis with excellent phase III results and this compliments their best in class Cancer and HIV therapies.

    Celgene has an excellent cancer drug that is broadening its treatments categories, they have annnounced excellent phase 3 trial results for pancreatic cancer, with full details of the study to be released in early January.

    I am long both Gilead and Celgene.
    Nov 18, 2012. 06:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment