j'adoube's Comments

Sentiment Overview: Is Bearishness a Bullish Sign?

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:39:23 -0400

Those are some impressive logical somersaults. You will need some serious ibuprofen after that.

j'adoube

Marc Faber's Outlook on the Market and Commodities [Video]

Tue, 12 May 2009 13:19:59 -0400

What's with the ponytail? Dude, you're two-thirds bald!

Convertibles Strategies - An Interview with John Calamos

Thu, 23 Apr 2009 12:40:20 -0400

Thanks Andrew, nice interview.

However, woefully short (to the point of absence) on any specific recommendations, or even sectors or types of converts that are particularly cheap.

And JC's reference to how cheap converts are right now is a bit muddled. On the one hand, he says that they are the cheapest ever. On the other hand, he says that they were 11%-12% below fair value at year-end '08, and valuations have "improved" since then.

Does that mean they've gotten even cheaper? Or less cheap? Not sure what he means by improved valuations. In any event, is 11% below FV really an all-time cheap valuation?

Why Hedge Fund Strategy ETFs Are Catching On

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 12:17:29 -0400

Tom-

No offense buddy, but clearly there's a sucker born every minute.

These are nothing but expensive portfolios of ETFs with slick packaging intended to lever off the allure of hedge funds. An allure, I might add, that's quickly diminishing.

How do you spell GIMMICK?

Bright Spot for Leverage - Increasing Yield, Narrowing Discounts In Levered Municipal Bond Funds

Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:53:56 -0400

That last bullet point seems like a cop-out. You spend the rest of the article relating what a compelling opportunity levered muni CEFs are, then in the last bullet point you take it away, saying there will be a better entry point than this.

Guys, make up your minds, and take a stand. If now is not the time, why don't you publish this article when it IS the time?

Gabelli's Global Deal Fund: Finding Value in Turbulent Times

Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:44:45 -0400

LongInvestor-

Points taken, but notice they still haven't fixed the errors, two weeks later.

With the quality control they show in their posts, they don't encourage a whole lot of confidence in their attention to detail.

Oil Futures: Money for the Taking?

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 13:00:19 -0400

Yeah, Markitwatcha, remind me where you live. I want to buy some puts on housing values in the area, as there's a non-trivial chance they go to zero when someone drops a match in your pool.

First Convertible Bond ETF Comes to Market

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 12:50:13 -0400

That seems awfully concentrated for an ETF.

Investors don't buy ETFs to assume company-specific risk.

CEFs Advance in Shortened Week, Though Less Than S&P 500

Tue, 14 Apr 2009 14:43:59 -0400

You seem doubly appreciative.

Safely Position Yourself for a Rally with the iPath Covered Call Writing ETF

Tue, 14 Apr 2009 14:13:04 -0400

This is an ETN, not an ETF.

Please know the difference.

Gabelli's Global Deal Fund: Finding Value in Turbulent Times

Wed, 08 Apr 2009 20:09:00 -0400

Guys-

Given that based on that GQ pic in the upper left you want to convey the look and feel of thorough professionals, you also may want to spell-check your copy (GACBX? No, GABCX), and still proofread (run by a "season" professional? Is her name Summer?).

Details are everything, guys. Otherwise, fine article and all good points. I look forward to more.

ETFOX: A Mutual Fund for ETF Investors

Fri, 13 Mar 2009 15:12:10 -0400

>>Frank also believes that reasonable management fees should be the obligation of the fund manager.<<

An ETF with a 175 basis point fee -- before you add on the fees of the ETFs in its portfolio.

Yeah, real reasonable. Give me a break.

Corporate Bonds: Discounting Depression

Fri, 19 Dec 2008 14:22:08 -0500

So spreads come in 80 bps? What if the entire curve rises 400 - 500 bp because of a return of inflation? Sure you may be right about spreads coming in, and dead wrong about bonds in general being the place to be.

It's like choosing the slightly sturdier boat, but not realizing there's a tsunami coming straight at you.

Emerging Markets ETFs Soar Despite Gloom

Fri, 14 Nov 2008 12:27:50 -0500

Carl-

What value does this post add?

j'adoube

Income ETFs vs. CEFs

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 13:24:08 -0400

Oy vey, author makes the typical amateur goof of confusing yield with distribution policy. 36 years of experience, and he either doesn't know the difference or doesn't disclose it. Sad.

An All-ETF Hedge Fund? You've Got to Be Kidding

Fri, 20 Jun 2008 14:05:17 -0400

Their chutzpah knows no bounds.

Mortgage Lenders Can't Escape Morgenson's Wrath

Wed, 16 Apr 2008 13:09:45 -0400

Just to amplify that last poster's comments:

There's no inconsistency in Morgenson's comments. a) Lenders made foolish loans to people who could not afford to pay them back, and b) Now, they're overcompensating by cutting off healthy borrowers. Doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

Tom Bozo Brown actually cheerled New Century Financial and its ilk all the way down. And took a major bath along the way.

He looked so lovely shaking those pom-poms that I suggest he'd be more suited to join the Dallas Cowgirls than be caught anywhere near large agglomerations of capital.

It's funny that Tom Brown is so intent on blaming Morgenson for inconsistency. One of the key marks of a great trader is the ability to change his mind as the facts and situation change. But all Brown did during this crisis is keep hitting the Buy Button like some kind of monkey on meth. He doesn't have the mental agility to navigate this crisis. He's not a hedge fund trader. He should go back to pure research.

PPI-CPI: I'm Even More Bearish Now

Fri, 14 Dec 2007 09:35:16 -0500

"Everyone knows that I am out in front of the curve in every respect, and this is a good example."

What a pompous ass. Sure to be ground up by a market that laughs at egotistical lunkheads like him.

Five ETF Developments To Watch

Thu, 30 Aug 2007 23:18:42 -0400

JIm-

Stop holding us in suspense - what is this timber product? From Claymore? Do tell.

Five ETF Developments To Watch

Thu, 30 Aug 2007 23:18:40 -0400

JIm-

Stop holding us in suspense - what is this timber product? From Claymore? Do tell.

The World's First All-BS ETF

Tue, 24 Jul 2007 12:46:59 -0400

Call me back when it's at a 10% discount.

j'adoube

Fear of Rising Interest Rates Sends Annaly Mortgage Lower: Time to Buy

Thu, 07 Jun 2007 13:17:08 -0400

". . . Hit the button and paid $14.30. Not liking to pay a lot over the tangible book value of $11.78, I decided to sell some Jan 2009 15 strike calls at $1.30 to lower my cost to $12.00."

$14.30 - $1.30 = $13.00, not $12.00

I'm a little concerned about a "former Wall Street trader" who has trouble with basic subtraction.

Defensive Funds: How Did They Fare During This Downdraft?

Fri, 11 May 2007 19:07:19 -0400

MebFa-

HSKSX

JP Morgan Highbridge Statistical Market Neutral Select

+0.19% on Feb. 27

And +0.87% in period Feb 27 to Mar 5, the entire period of decline.

The fund seems to do well in times of sharply rising volatility.

j'adoube

A Hedge Fund Clone Portfolio For 2007

Fri, 11 May 2007 18:52:48 -0400

MebFa-

Like da metodology, mon. Let's look at da performance, two double zero sevon to date, mon:

As of 5/10/07

AAPL +26.5%
AMP +10.1%
AMT + 3.9%
AMX +19.6%
AXP + 4.0%
AZO +15.7%
BBBY +6.8%
CMCSK -7.7%
COH +12.0%
GOOG +0.2% Memo to MebFa --
MSFT +2.8% Don't put these two so close together.
QCOM +16.5%
TYC +6.2%
UNH -1.3%
WU -5.6%

I get an average weighted total return of +7.3% as of 5/10/07.
The S&P total return (basis VFINX) is +5.8% over the same period.

Now that certainly doesn't stink, MebFa. But I'm not yet ready to see you put on Judy Collins' old dress and start singing "Send in the Clones". Not even sure the extra return justifies the concentration risk --- [big pause] yet.

It's early. It's just inning three. And heck, one year is not even close to an adequate test period. Several of these guys have 3-5 year average holding periods.

Which leads me to a possible refinement. It would seem that results may improve if you filter out holdings that have "aged". That is, you want to accumulate stocks that are early in their hold cycle among the subject managers. If the average holding period among these managers is, say, three years, you don't want to buy stocks that are already held, say, for an average of two years by these managers, because they're already looking for the exits, perhaps. (On the other hand, the greatest gains on their holdings may come toward the end of their holds. Peter Lynch liked to say that his big gains often came in the thord or fourth year he held a stock).

Anyway, good work so far, big guy. Keep mining this rich vein. I'm there with ya.

j'adoube

Nine ETFs I'd Like To See

Fri, 11 May 2007 17:25:07 -0400

Volatility