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NatGasMaverick

NatGasMaverick
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  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    Mark - that's quite a list you've got there. You sure you want to include all those A-rated low-leverage producers with balanced oil/gas reserves and production? Me thinks you have no effing idea what you are talking about.

    -Mav
    Jul 18 04:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Government-Mandated Corn Shortage [View instapost]
    Burning food is not a good idea. Pray for rain.
    Jul 18 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    Mark - you are clueless. I don't have the time or the patience to explaine reserve-based lending to you.
    Jul 18 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    Mark - you still don't understand the energy commodity trading markets. And I don't have time to be your tutor. Traders don't take long-term market risk. If it was as easy as you claim (buying miilions of tons and store in a stockpile). A more efficient use of your liquidity is to churn volume. Buy fixed price term coal and hedge. Do you think PCX's customers ever employed the strategy you suggest? Just curious. "Cheap today" is also relative. I suggest you retire from you SA gig and go find a trading analyst role somewhere (BP, Citi, Koch, Constellation, Hess, etc.).
    Jul 18 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    Peter:

    I've previously mentioned that I'm fairly risk averse. Primarily because I lost my @$$ on a handful of "wall street darlings" in 2001-2002 following the implosion of the merchant energy industry. I am primarily invested in mutual funds and occaisionally pick up shares in the O&G sector. I currently do not own any coal or E&P shares.

    I like APA, EOG and BTU.

    I'm not a fan of CHK, and would watch both JRCC and RNO. I think JRCC is a BK risk and RNO as well...but to a lesser degree.

    I would expect in the long run, CHK survives, albiet a long slow painful existance like EP and then gets bought by one of integrateds or large independents. I would not be surprised if CHK continues asset sales and the resulting entity is much smaller than they are today. Would I buy CHK? No. I'd rather own APA and EOG. Both have a long track record of being among the best operators with strong balance sheets and a good mix of gas, ngls, and oil and excellent relationships with their bank groups.

    -Mav
    Jul 17 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    Mark - you sure do have a lot of spare time on your hands. i find it hard to believe you actually do this amount of "analysis", considering you are not an I-banking analyst.
    Jul 17 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    looks like much of that was driven by hedging gains. http://bit.ly/NyQvkR

    they barely squeaked a profit though
    http://bit.ly/Q4H9BN

    All the more reason to buy shares in a producer who has more oil in the production mix.
    Jul 17 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    Mark - thank you for helping prove your naivete.

    CHK is a pandora's box.

    regarding the "projected production from engineering report", i'm referring to the process that oil and gas lenders follow when doing their semi-annual borrowing base redeterminations with third party engineering reports on the producers reserves. if you had ANY experience in the industry, you would know what I'm talking about.
    Jul 17 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    dnp - then go read the financials and MD&A and find out. I'm not your tutor.
    Jul 17 04:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    Mark - the point being capex vs cash flow and financing the gap. go take a look at the balance sheet and cash flows for APA (or ECA, DVN, EOG, etc) and then look at any coal producer...you choose. Help me understand where the "snake oil" is hidden.

    When I was doing BB loans years ago, our downside case assumed we fully funded the borrowing base revolver and then applied our price deck to the projected production from the engineering report. The question that every credit committee asked us was..."how many months does it take for them to pay us back"? today's answer? a hell-of-a lot sooner than the coal producers.

    Your argument is weak.
    Jul 17 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    And that's different from startig a new mining operation how?
    Jul 17 03:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    You mean when JPMorgan hired a new tanker to store heating oil in the Med with the expectation that they would sell when price rose. Yep...I'm very familiar with that transaction. http://bloom.bg/NH3Vs0
    It was a good short-term and opportunistic trade and was traded out of in a relatively brief period. JPM did not hold that cargo for a year. It was also JPM's first cargo trade and was done so they could get their feet wet in that particular business. Subsequent to that trade, JPM bought the global oil trade business from RBS/Sempra.

    Why would a coal trader tie up capital for an entire year for (let's assume a train of coal equiv), which is about $600,000 (11,000 tons at $55/ton)? It's not practical and its not how the industry works. Traders will buy term fixed price. You should know this. PCX and the coal producers typically sell term fixed price.
    Jul 17 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Sticking With Patriot Coal [View article]
    Sorry to burst you bubble Mark, but we call that normal backwardation. Cal13 for rail CAPP is $66.95. Prices are up slightly on a hotter-than-normal weather forecast for the next two weeks. You really should get access to Platts Coal Trader.
    Jul 17 02:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    thank goodness for borrowing base revolvers
    Jul 17 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Natural Gas Do We Have Left? [View article]
    Mark - I don't know of any physical traders who sit on coal for a year. there are some who are buying mines/reserves, but no physical trader is sitting on coal for a year. Regarding gas, there are a number of traders/hedgefunds who have storage capacity and are trading around the asset. gas storage deliverability is generally pretty quick and you can get gas from your storage facility on to a pipeline in a day. coal is different because you need to schedule barges or have a train lined up. the lead time to physically move the product is longer.
    Jul 17 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
521 Comments
563 Likes