Syntex (who developed the birth control pill) was the first stock I bought (in 67). Bought my first options (IBM calls) in Dec 1974. Was a commodity broker from 79 to 82. Have never had a losing trade in Treasury-bond futures since 1979. Nominal gNp hit 19.2% in the 1st qtr 1981, the FFR to 22%, & AAA Corporates to 15.49%. My prediction for the peak in AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48% (& that bonds would bottom in Oct). Predicted the month stocks bottomed in 82 & in 84. Predicted the 87 crash. Predicted the top in the Y2K bubble. Predicted that the top in stocks would be July 2007. Predicted the severe contraction in the 4th qtr of 2008 in January of that year. Identified the bottom in stocks as March 2009. The markets confused me only once - when the FED executed QE2 (but I nailed the bottom in the CPI in Jan 2011 i.e., 7 months before it bottomed out).
Just a small town guy in flyover country who likes to think about economics and finance, ever since taking a course from Larry Meyer in Washington U. in St. Louis many years ago...before he became a big Fed-head. He personally scammed me out of a dollar to "save the whales," and I've been intrigued ever since.
small time financial forecaster / modeler in the corporate world, having worked in petroleum transportation, high tech r&d, financial information, and construction. Occasionally successful short trader, being short during Oct 87, LTCM crises, 9/11, summer 2002, and out of the market long between June 08 and Nov 09, small shorts in fall of 08. Being long is far more risky than seeing high risk situations implode.
Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, Sept 1991, Lead article
I am engaged in trading Asian emerging market currencies and formerly the accountant for and a staff member of a local non profit business engaged in community service.
Please understand, the views I express are my own and are not intended to influence any positions other than my own and for our business. I have a degree in business management with an emphasis in economics.
Formerly enlisted in USAF Air Defense, both ballistic missile and aerospace defense, including joint service counter narcotics surveillance and deployments under imminent danger.
I was a partner in a small business, now a retired saver being punished by the central bank.
- b.s. business & german, university of kansas
- private business ownership / management, kansas - construction-related industry (4 yrs.)
- consultant, chicago - firm specialized in management consulting for german-speaking capital equipment manufacturers with sub's in the americas (5 yrs.)
- company executive (m.d.), germany - co. is a small, privately-held manufacturer of specialized medical rehab. & fitness machines (5 yrs. / current)