Will Rahal

Senator Harry Reid: 'No One Knows What To Do'

I have been Bearish for a while.
As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I believe that a ST/IT bottom has been put in today.

The Housing Slump Rolls On

I have been Bearish for a while.
As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I believe that a ST/IT bottom has been put in today.

Market Nosedive Pushes Dollar Down

I have been a Bearish for a while.
As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I belive that a ST/IT bottom has been put in today.

Thursday's Bond Outlook: Containing the Contagion

I have been a Bear's for a while.
As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I belive that "a" bottom has been put in today.

Unemployment Rates, Recession Periods and Stock Market Prices

I posted on the relationship between Employment, Business Investment and the S&P-500.
We are heading lower.

Economic Outlook: Bracing for a Rocky Road?

Bumpy ride, indeed.
The relatively healthy business sector is about to follow the weak consumer.
I have posted on the relationship of Employment Vs Business Investment and the stock market.

Maybe It's Not Just a Mental Recession

The debt level is not mental.
The heavy tilt to services is not mental.
There is a 25-year cycle associated with economic distress.

As Jobs Decline

Jobs declines will continue.
I have posted about how every 25 years is associated with financial crisis. In 2007, right on time, we had the Mortgage Crisis.

Dollar Wins on Euro, Pound Weakness

The slow loss of jobs cumulative effects will be felt.
Debt and a heavy tilt to Services has made this economy(and the rest of the world's) vulnerable.
I posted on the 25-year cycle. In 2007 the Mortgage debacle arrived
on time to confirm another financial crisis associated with this cycle.
It will take more that a few months to correct the excesses of a generation.
See

wrahal.blogspot.com/20...

Bill Miller on This Tough Market

Every 25-years(a generation) seems to be accompanied by financial crises. Right on target, in 2007 we had the mortgage debacle.

I have posted about the 25-year cycle.
The excesses of a generations can not be corrected in a few months.

Economic Report Summary: Disappointing Retail Sales

I have combined two of your charts: Retail Sales and CPI
If you deflate(divide) RS by CPI you get ta sense of "Real" Retail Sales.
This number has continued to drop suggesting a weak consumer despite the tax rebates.

How Low Can This Market Go? The 40 Percent Solution

I think that earnings disappointments will contribute to further stock market declines. Expectation of an economic "slowdown" is slowly being replaced by a serious downturn. One implication is that earnings estimates will come down significantly. The market will adjust accordingly.
I used estimates for next week's reports and the charts clearly indicate that 1995 was a walk in the park compared to current conditions.
See
wrahal.blogspot.com/20...

Can Earnings Season Be the Market's Savior?

The downward adjustment in stock prices are a result of expectations being lowered by investors.
Next week's reports (using consensus estimates) show no improvement for the the sluggish environment we are in.

Offshore Troubles, Domestic Fears

It is a scary looking chart. Inflation is staring to be considered a more serious threat to the markets. Also, next week's reports will show that this is far more that a "slowdown" and more like a recession.
There is plenty of room for inflation to deteriorate the earnings picture further, causing more stock market losses.
See

wrahal.blogspot.com/20...

Even the Legends Are Losing in Today's Markets

Analysts are still thinking "slowdown" instead of recession.The current environment is far worse than the "slowdown" of 1995.One implication is earnings will disappoint, contributing to further stock market losses.