Economic Outlook: Bracing for a Rocky Road? [View article]
Bumpy ride, indeed. The relatively healthy business sector is about to follow the weak consumer. I have posted on the relationship of Employment Vs Business Investment and the stock market.
Jobs declines will continue. I have posted about how every 25 years is associated with financial crisis. In 2007, right on time, we had the Mortgage Crisis.
Dollar Wins on Euro, Pound Weakness [View article]
The slow loss of jobs cumulative effects will be felt. Debt and a heavy tilt to Services has made this economy(and the rest of the world's) vulnerable. I posted on the 25-year cycle. In 2007 the Mortgage debacle arrived on time to confirm another financial crisis associated with this cycle. It will take more that a few months to correct the excesses of a generation. See
I have combined two of your charts: Retail Sales and CPI If you deflate(divide) RS by CPI you get ta sense of "Real" Retail Sales. This number has continued to drop suggesting a weak consumer despite the tax rebates.
How Low Can This Market Go? The 40 Percent Solution [View article]
I think that earnings disappointments will contribute to further stock market declines. Expectation of an economic "slowdown" is slowly being replaced by a serious downturn. One implication is that earnings estimates will come down significantly. The market will adjust accordingly. I used estimates for next week's reports and the charts clearly indicate that 1995 was a walk in the park compared to current conditions. See wrahal.blogspot.com/20...
Can Earnings Season Be the Market's Savior? [View article]
The downward adjustment in stock prices are a result of expectations being lowered by investors. Next week's reports (using consensus estimates) show no improvement for the the sluggish environment we are in.
It is a scary looking chart. Inflation is staring to be considered a more serious threat to the markets. Also, next week's reports will show that this is far more that a "slowdown" and more like a recession. There is plenty of room for inflation to deteriorate the earnings picture further, causing more stock market losses. See
Even the Legends Are Losing in Today's Markets [View article]
Analysts are still thinking "slowdown" instead of recession.The current environment is far worse than the "slowdown" of 1995.One implication is earnings will disappoint, contributing to further stock market losses.
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Latest | Highest ratedSenator Harry Reid: 'No One Knows What To Do' [View article]
As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I believe that a ST/IT bottom has been put in today.
The Housing Slump Rolls On [View article]
As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I believe that a ST/IT bottom has been put in today.
Market Nosedive Pushes Dollar Down [View article]
As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I belive that a ST/IT bottom has been put in today.
Thursday's Bond Outlook: Containing the Contagion [View article]
As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I belive that "a" bottom has been put in today.
Unemployment Rates, Recession Periods and Stock Market Prices [View article]
We are heading lower.
Economic Outlook: Bracing for a Rocky Road? [View article]
The relatively healthy business sector is about to follow the weak consumer.
I have posted on the relationship of Employment Vs Business Investment and the stock market.
Maybe It's Not Just a Mental Recession [View article]
The heavy tilt to services is not mental.
There is a 25-year cycle associated with economic distress.
As Jobs Decline [View article]
I have posted about how every 25 years is associated with financial crisis. In 2007, right on time, we had the Mortgage Crisis.
Dollar Wins on Euro, Pound Weakness [View article]
Debt and a heavy tilt to Services has made this economy(and the rest of the world's) vulnerable.
I posted on the 25-year cycle. In 2007 the Mortgage debacle arrived
on time to confirm another financial crisis associated with this cycle.
It will take more that a few months to correct the excesses of a generation.
See
wrahal.blogspot.com/20...
Bill Miller on This Tough Market [View article]
I have posted about the 25-year cycle.
The excesses of a generations can not be corrected in a few months.
Economic Report Summary: Disappointing Retail Sales [View article]
If you deflate(divide) RS by CPI you get ta sense of "Real" Retail Sales.
This number has continued to drop suggesting a weak consumer despite the tax rebates.
How Low Can This Market Go? The 40 Percent Solution [View article]
I used estimates for next week's reports and the charts clearly indicate that 1995 was a walk in the park compared to current conditions.
See
wrahal.blogspot.com/20...
Can Earnings Season Be the Market's Savior? [View article]
Next week's reports (using consensus estimates) show no improvement for the the sluggish environment we are in.
Offshore Troubles, Domestic Fears [View article]
There is plenty of room for inflation to deteriorate the earnings picture further, causing more stock market losses.
See
wrahal.blogspot.com/20...
Even the Legends Are Losing in Today's Markets [View article]