Will Rahal's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/79843/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/95995-senator-harry-reid-no-one-knows-what-to-do?source=feed#comment-258204 258204 As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I believe that a ST/IT bottom has been put in today.]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 13:48:17 -0400 As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I believe that a ST/IT bottom has been put in today.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95933-the-housing-slump-rolls-on?source=feed#comment-258201 258201 As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I believe that a ST/IT bottom has been put in today.]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 13:46:48 -0400 As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I believe that a ST/IT bottom has been put in today.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95984-market-nosedive-pushes-dollar-down?source=feed#comment-258200 258200 As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I belive that a ST/IT bottom has been put in today. ]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 13:45:11 -0400 As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I belive that a ST/IT bottom has been put in today. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96098-thursday-s-bond-outlook-containing-the-contagion?source=feed#comment-258198 258198 As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I belive that "a" bottom has been put in today.]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 13:43:05 -0400 As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I belive that "a" bottom has been put in today.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94300-unemployment-rates-recession-periods-and-stock-market-prices?source=feed#comment-248222 248222 We are heading lower.]]> Mon, 08 Sep 2008 10:02:02 -0400 We are heading lower.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94345-economic-outlook-bracing-for-a-rocky-road?source=feed#comment-248160 248160 The relatively healthy business sector is about to follow the weak consumer.
I have posted on the relationship of Employment Vs Business Investment and the stock market.]]> Mon, 08 Sep 2008 09:02:16 -0400 The relatively healthy business sector is about to follow the weak consumer.
I have posted on the relationship of Employment Vs Business Investment and the stock market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88560-maybe-it-s-not-just-a-mental-recession?source=feed#comment-220993 220993 The heavy tilt to services is not mental.
There is a 25-year cycle associated with economic distress.
]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 11:20:20 -0400 The heavy tilt to services is not mental.
There is a 25-year cycle associated with economic distress.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88586-as-jobs-decline?source=feed#comment-220985 220985 I have posted about how every 25 years is associated with financial crisis. In 2007, right on time, we had the Mortgage Crisis.
]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 11:12:51 -0400 I have posted about how every 25 years is associated with financial crisis. In 2007, right on time, we had the Mortgage Crisis.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88618-dollar-wins-on-euro-pound-weakness?source=feed#comment-220983 220983 Debt and a heavy tilt to Services has made this economy(and the rest of the world's) vulnerable.
I posted on the 25-year cycle. In 2007 the Mortgage debacle arrived
on time to confirm another financial crisis associated with this cycle.
It will take more that a few months to correct the excesses of a generation.
See

wrahal.blogspot.com/20...]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 11:10:11 -0400 Debt and a heavy tilt to Services has made this economy(and the rest of the world's) vulnerable.
I posted on the 25-year cycle. In 2007 the Mortgage debacle arrived
on time to confirm another financial crisis associated with this cycle.
It will take more that a few months to correct the excesses of a generation.
See

wrahal.blogspot.com/20...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88677-bill-miller-on-this-tough-market?source=feed#comment-220979 220979
I have posted about the 25-year cycle.
The excesses of a generations can not be corrected in a few months.
]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 11:03:31 -0400
I have posted about the 25-year cycle.
The excesses of a generations can not be corrected in a few months.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85811-economic-report-summary-disappointing-retail-sales?source=feed#comment-209815 209815 If you deflate(divide) RS by CPI you get ta sense of "Real" Retail Sales.
This number has continued to drop suggesting a weak consumer despite the tax rebates.

]]> Sun, 20 Jul 2008 11:17:56 -0400 If you deflate(divide) RS by CPI you get ta sense of "Real" Retail Sales.
This number has continued to drop suggesting a weak consumer despite the tax rebates.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84626-how-low-can-this-market-go-the-40-percent-solution?source=feed#comment-203851 203851 I used estimates for next week's reports and the charts clearly indicate that 1995 was a walk in the park compared to current conditions.
See
wrahal.blogspot.com/20...]]> Sat, 12 Jul 2008 16:40:35 -0400 I used estimates for next week's reports and the charts clearly indicate that 1995 was a walk in the park compared to current conditions.
See
wrahal.blogspot.com/20...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84637-can-earnings-season-be-the-market-s-savior?source=feed#comment-203841 203841 Next week's reports (using consensus estimates) show no improvement for the the sluggish environment we are in.

]]> Sat, 12 Jul 2008 16:31:01 -0400 Next week's reports (using consensus estimates) show no improvement for the the sluggish environment we are in.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84621-offshore-troubles-domestic-fears?source=feed#comment-203838 203838 There is plenty of room for inflation to deteriorate the earnings picture further, causing more stock market losses.
See

wrahal.blogspot.com/20...]]> Sat, 12 Jul 2008 16:26:51 -0400 There is plenty of room for inflation to deteriorate the earnings picture further, causing more stock market losses.
See

wrahal.blogspot.com/20...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84661-even-the-legends-are-losing-in-today-s-markets?source=feed#comment-203831 203831

]]> Sat, 12 Jul 2008 16:19:42 -0400

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83792-what-was-left-out-of-the-jobs-report?source=feed#comment-198514 198514 These are the driving force behind the US economy.
As earnings decrease, the only catalyst for the stock market improvement, is a drop in commodity prices.
After a rally, the strong commodity-related sectors will also contribute to further stock market declines.
]]> Fri, 04 Jul 2008 10:45:22 -0400 These are the driving force behind the US economy.
As earnings decrease, the only catalyst for the stock market improvement, is a drop in commodity prices.
After a rally, the strong commodity-related sectors will also contribute to further stock market declines.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82996-markets-still-sliding-away?source=feed#comment-194885 194885 The recent action in the stock market confirms that the economic slowdown is indeed a recession.
The tax rebates have been spent in Non-Durable vs Durable Goods, exacerbating economic malaise.

]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 17:29:10 -0400 The recent action in the stock market confirms that the economic slowdown is indeed a recession.
The tax rebates have been spent in Non-Durable vs Durable Goods, exacerbating economic malaise.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82995-the-current-market-investors-lack-fear?source=feed#comment-194880 194880 The recent action of the markets with the DJIA and breadth making new low, confirm the weak economic data I have been posting for over a year. Even after the tax rebate , consumption is concentrating in essential items as Food & Energy vs Discretionary items.
The ratio of these two series continue to rise indicating more economic weakness.

]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 17:24:15 -0400 The recent action of the markets with the DJIA and breadth making new low, confirm the weak economic data I have been posting for over a year. Even after the tax rebate , consumption is concentrating in essential items as Food & Energy vs Discretionary items.
The ratio of these two series continue to rise indicating more economic weakness.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83015-worst-dow-june-since-depression?source=feed#comment-194874 194874 The markets just confirmed this.
Even after the tax rebates the ratio of consumption in ND-Goods to Durable Goods has risen, indicating that there is less ability to buy discretionary items. that are more stimulative for the economy.
]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 17:17:31 -0400 The markets just confirmed this.
Even after the tax rebates the ratio of consumption in ND-Goods to Durable Goods has risen, indicating that there is less ability to buy discretionary items. that are more stimulative for the economy.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83011-market-breadth-back-to-lows?source=feed#comment-194873 194873 This does not bode well for the stock market, and confirms that my economic indicators pointing to a recession are valid.
Despite the tax rebate the ratio of ND/Durable Goods consumption keeps rising, allowing for less discretionary spending needed to stimulate the economy

See

wrahal.blogspot.com/20...
]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 17:09:54 -0400 This does not bode well for the stock market, and confirms that my economic indicators pointing to a recession are valid.
Despite the tax rebate the ratio of ND/Durable Goods consumption keeps rising, allowing for less discretionary spending needed to stimulate the economy

See

wrahal.blogspot.com/20...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83034-will-the-nasdaq-take-a-mean-bounce?source=feed#comment-194870 194870
On a relative basis business is in better shape than the consumer as evinced by a ratio I keep track of Business Investment expressesd as percentage of Durable Goods Orders.
This ratio keeps climbing but it is close to a relative peak suggesting that business will follow the consumer into recession.
The action in the stock market confirms this.

See
wrahal.blogspot.com/20...

]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 17:02:50 -0400
On a relative basis business is in better shape than the consumer as evinced by a ratio I keep track of Business Investment expressesd as percentage of Durable Goods Orders.
This ratio keeps climbing but it is close to a relative peak suggesting that business will follow the consumer into recession.
The action in the stock market confirms this.

See
wrahal.blogspot.com/20...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83038-another-record-oil-surge-leans-on-stocks-and-dollar?source=feed#comment-194868 194868 I still expect the dollar to firm up as we continue to be in a weak economic environment.
Despite the tax rebates the ration od ND to Durable Goods consumption keeps rising, I have been claiming for a year that this would lead to recession. The Stock Market confirmed it this week.

]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 16:54:21 -0400 I still expect the dollar to firm up as we continue to be in a weak economic environment.
Despite the tax rebates the ration od ND to Durable Goods consumption keeps rising, I have been claiming for a year that this would lead to recession. The Stock Market confirmed it this week.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83028-risky-waters-but-opportune-waves?source=feed#comment-194861 194861 I have claiming for a year that the rise in Food & Energy would lead to an economic mess for a leveraged society.
This week the stock market confirm end it.
The ratio of ND Goods/Durable Goods consumption keeps rising despite the tax rebate.



]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 16:20:23 -0400 I have claiming for a year that the rise in Food & Energy would lead to an economic mess for a leveraged society.
This week the stock market confirm end it.
The ratio of ND Goods/Durable Goods consumption keeps rising despite the tax rebate.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83052-time-to-start-buying-some-dogs?source=feed#comment-194859 194859

]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 16:15:07 -0400

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82123-euro-at-highest-in-more-than-a-week?source=feed#comment-189669 189669
There is no reason to believe that this time will be different.

In the US, Consumption is very weak. The business sector is holding up(noticed the NASDQ out performance?).
Business is starting to show signs of deterioration and it will follow consumption into recession.
The world economies will deteriorate also.
The US Dollar will improve under this scenario
]]> Sat, 21 Jun 2008 10:23:16 -0400
There is no reason to believe that this time will be different.

In the US, Consumption is very weak. The business sector is holding up(noticed the NASDQ out performance?).
Business is starting to show signs of deterioration and it will follow consumption into recession.
The world economies will deteriorate also.
The US Dollar will improve under this scenario
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82164-financial-fears-sweeping-the-globe?source=feed#comment-189643 189643 There is little doubt about the consumer slowing.
The business sector (reflected by the NASDQ out performance) is still holding up.
]]> Sat, 21 Jun 2008 09:48:26 -0400 There is little doubt about the consumer slowing.
The business sector (reflected by the NASDQ out performance) is still holding up.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82173-the-non-crash-of-2008?source=feed#comment-189641 189641 It is becoming clear that the consumer is in trouble.
The business sector (reflected by the NASDQ out performance) is still holding up.
I have posted about business following consumption into a recession.
]]> Sat, 21 Jun 2008 09:40:34 -0400 It is becoming clear that the consumer is in trouble.
The business sector (reflected by the NASDQ out performance) is still holding up.
I have posted about business following consumption into a recession.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81335-unemployment-rates-understanding-the-big-picture?source=feed#comment-185863 185863 The increase in the unemployment rate is closely related to a drop in income(of course) and this is one of the driving forces behind an economic slowdown.
Both the 6 and 12-month percent change in real wages have dropped to levels associated with recessions.
]]> Sun, 15 Jun 2008 10:57:46 -0400 The increase in the unemployment rate is closely related to a drop in income(of course) and this is one of the driving forces behind an economic slowdown.
Both the 6 and 12-month percent change in real wages have dropped to levels associated with recessions.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81396-how-much-inflation-will-we-have-to-endure?source=feed#comment-185849 185849 The difference between the annualized rate (AR) 6-month in the CPI and the AR 18-month CPI is rolling over. This number always ends up in negative territory during economic weakness.
]]> Sun, 15 Jun 2008 10:40:34 -0400 The difference between the annualized rate (AR) 6-month in the CPI and the AR 18-month CPI is rolling over. This number always ends up in negative territory during economic weakness.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81354-economic-report-summary-strong-retail-sales-surge-in-consumer-prices?source=feed#comment-185843 185843
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