Will Rahal

Another Record Oil Surge Leans on Stocks and Dollar

Oil prices are exacerbating our economic woes.
I still expect the dollar to firm up as we continue to be in a weak economic environment.
Despite the tax rebates the ration od ND to Durable Goods consumption keeps rising, I have been claiming for a year that this would lead to recession. The Stock Market confirmed it this week.

Euro at Highest in More Than a Week

During recession the trade deficit in the US actually improves, as the consumer is not able to import as much.

There is no reason to believe that this time will be different.

In the US, Consumption is very weak. The business sector is holding up(noticed the NASDQ out performance?).
Business is starting to show signs of deterioration and it will follow consumption into recession.
The world economies will deteriorate also.
The US Dollar will improve under this scenario

Week in Review: Dollar's Biggest Advance Vs. Euro in 3 Years

I believe the US Dollar is to be bought despite
the week economic numbers reported recently.

Nevertheless, the boost in retail sales caused by the rebate, is insignificant.

Compared with Canada, U.S. Economy Looks OK

If our GDP (optimistic)deflator were to be revised by 1% we would be in the negative side also.
I've charted Real PCE indicating a consumer-recession.
The 6-month % change has dropped to levels only seen during recessions.The report on Business Investment is more benign, but I believethat the consumer sector will lead the business sector down.