Will Rahal

Market Nosedive Pushes Dollar Down

I have been a Bearish for a while.
As a frequent commentator here, I want to let you
know that I belive that a ST/IT bottom has been put in today.

Dollar Wins on Euro, Pound Weakness

The slow loss of jobs cumulative effects will be felt.
Debt and a heavy tilt to Services has made this economy(and the rest of the world's) vulnerable.
I posted on the 25-year cycle. In 2007 the Mortgage debacle arrived
on time to confirm another financial crisis associated with this cycle.
It will take more that a few months to correct the excesses of a generation.
See

wrahal.blogspot.com/20...

Another Record Oil Surge Leans on Stocks and Dollar

Oil prices are exacerbating our economic woes.
I still expect the dollar to firm up as we continue to be in a weak economic environment.
Despite the tax rebates the ration od ND to Durable Goods consumption keeps rising, I have been claiming for a year that this would lead to recession. The Stock Market confirmed it this week.

Euro at Highest in More Than a Week

During recession the trade deficit in the US actually improves, as the consumer is not able to import as much.

There is no reason to believe that this time will be different.

In the US, Consumption is very weak. The business sector is holding up(noticed the NASDQ out performance?).
Business is starting to show signs of deterioration and it will follow consumption into recession.
The world economies will deteriorate also.
The US Dollar will improve under this scenario

Recession to Inflation: Transitions Benefit the Dollar

I think the dollar should be bought.
Despite the jump in retail sales, the economic indicator point to a recession.
I expect inflation as measured by the CPI to start heading lower.
The difference in the 6-month vs 18-month annualized rate always dips into negative territory as the economy softens.

Week in Review: Dollar's Biggest Advance Vs. Euro in 3 Years

I believe the US Dollar is to be bought despite
the week economic numbers reported recently.

Nevertheless, the boost in retail sales caused by the rebate, is insignificant.

Compared with Canada, U.S. Economy Looks OK

If our GDP (optimistic)deflator were to be revised by 1% we would be in the negative side also.
I've charted Real PCE indicating a consumer-recession.
The 6-month % change has dropped to levels only seen during recessions.The report on Business Investment is more benign, but I believethat the consumer sector will lead the business sector down.

Will Dollar Bulls Get Nervous Again?

The Dollar will be under attack, but will probably do surprisingly well
since its decline already accounts for the weakness in the US economic structure.
The NBER looks at Retail Sales, Employment, Income and Industrial Production. I posted charts on these series and they are clearly not looking too healthy.

Dollar Falls on Lowest Consumer Sentiment in 28 Years

"Is how folks feel about the economy that matters", president Bush said. Well they ain't feeling too good.

I charted the four yardsticks used by the NBER to asses economic pain and they are not looking good either.