Lior Cohen's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/798719/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1442531/comments?source=feed#comment-18960961 18960961 Fri, 17 May 2013 16:32:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1442531/comments?source=feed#comment-18960941 18960941 I'm sure that many PM enthusiasts have different theories as to the reason for the recent decline in PM prices (and I'm no different). From my point of view, there are many factors that account for this fall in prices: the rise in CME margins back in April, the stable U.S inflation, the strength of the USD, the rally of U.S stock market, and the speculations around the Fed cutting its QE3 program - just to name a few. But recall that in the past couple of years PM didn't perform well so more and more people have slowly pulled out of gold and silver and back into equities (including Goldman Sachs). The tipping point may have started after the CME raised cash requirements back in mid-April.
Those are my two cents.
LC ]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 16:31:51 -0400 I'm sure that many PM enthusiasts have different theories as to the reason for the recent decline in PM prices (and I'm no different). From my point of view, there are many factors that account for this fall in prices: the rise in CME margins back in April, the stable U.S inflation, the strength of the USD, the rally of U.S stock market, and the speculations around the Fed cutting its QE3 program - just to name a few. But recall that in the past couple of years PM didn't perform well so more and more people have slowly pulled out of gold and silver and back into equities (including Goldman Sachs). The tipping point may have started after the CME raised cash requirements back in mid-April.
Those are my two cents.
LC ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1380101/comments?source=feed#comment-18381231 18381231 I'm glad you asked. I keep saying words such as guess because I'm not clairvoyant nor do I wish to pretend to be one. Despite the detailed analysis, there are always new developments and unexpected turns that could unfold (the know unknowns and the unknown unknowns, if you will) and pull the price of natural gas into unexpected directions. I know this is not a popular view, but I hope my sincerity overcomes my shortcomings. ]]> Thu, 02 May 2013 19:02:45 -0400 I'm glad you asked. I keep saying words such as guess because I'm not clairvoyant nor do I wish to pretend to be one. Despite the detailed analysis, there are always new developments and unexpected turns that could unfold (the know unknowns and the unknown unknowns, if you will) and pull the price of natural gas into unexpected directions. I know this is not a popular view, but I hope my sincerity overcomes my shortcomings. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1357171/comments?source=feed#comment-17923161 17923161 Nope. They are not the same in this case. Of course there is a strong relation between the changes in GLD's gold holdings and price of gold but they aren't the same. E.g. during December gold price fell by 2.1% while GLD's gold holdings rose by 0.3%. During March 2013 the price of gold rose by 1.1% while the GLD gold holdings fell by 3%. Obviously, if gold won't perform well, the GLD gold holdings are likely to dwindle as more investors will pull out of gold. But the changes in gold holdings in this ETF could serve as an indicator for the changes in demand for gold as an investment. That's the only point I was trying to make with this statement.
Lior ]]> Mon, 22 Apr 2013 05:39:29 -0400 Nope. They are not the same in this case. Of course there is a strong relation between the changes in GLD's gold holdings and price of gold but they aren't the same. E.g. during December gold price fell by 2.1% while GLD's gold holdings rose by 0.3%. During March 2013 the price of gold rose by 1.1% while the GLD gold holdings fell by 3%. Obviously, if gold won't perform well, the GLD gold holdings are likely to dwindle as more investors will pull out of gold. But the changes in gold holdings in this ETF could serve as an indicator for the changes in demand for gold as an investment. That's the only point I was trying to make with this statement.
Lior ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1284441/comments?source=feed#comment-16478921 16478921 Tue, 19 Mar 2013 03:04:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1251431/comments?source=feed#comment-15964621 15964621 Thu, 07 Mar 2013 04:58:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1251431/comments?source=feed#comment-15964601 15964601 http://on.doi.gov/105sMSt).]]> Thu, 07 Mar 2013 04:56:41 -0500 http://on.doi.gov/105sMSt).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1220041/comments?source=feed#comment-15460701 15460701 Mon, 25 Feb 2013 03:50:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1080131/comments?source=feed#comment-12986271 12986271
I appreciate your critic. I do research before commenting on the weather. At the time I wrote this article the weather forecast was for light snow in certain areas. This I took from the weather channel (I have also linked my comments in the article to the site). Moreover, the two week projection was also based on an article from Dec 19 (again linked above). If there was a change in the weather/forecast than I will update my projection accordingly.
In regards to you question the answer is NO I have no position in NG/UNG or any other natural gas related asset. I only analyze the NG market based on the facts I see, and if you will examine my previous articles you can see that I will be the first to change my guess of the future direction for natural gas based on the facts I know at the time of writing the article.


Hope I have cleared things up for you.

Lior ]]> Wed, 26 Dec 2012 09:21:43 -0500
I appreciate your critic. I do research before commenting on the weather. At the time I wrote this article the weather forecast was for light snow in certain areas. This I took from the weather channel (I have also linked my comments in the article to the site). Moreover, the two week projection was also based on an article from Dec 19 (again linked above). If there was a change in the weather/forecast than I will update my projection accordingly.
In regards to you question the answer is NO I have no position in NG/UNG or any other natural gas related asset. I only analyze the NG market based on the facts I see, and if you will examine my previous articles you can see that I will be the first to change my guess of the future direction for natural gas based on the facts I know at the time of writing the article.


Hope I have cleared things up for you.

Lior ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1067451/comments?source=feed#comment-12674751 12674751 Mon, 17 Dec 2012 06:39:27 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1027941/comments?source=feed#comment-11957761 11957761 Mon, 26 Nov 2012 10:41:24 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1023611/comments?source=feed#comment-11886121 11886121 The chart above is for 2012. I have also checked for 2011, and there was also a drop in the linear correlation between silver and SLW around the end of the quarter in most of the quarters (except during the first few months of 2011). So it might not be just a recent trend.
Regarding your next question, I don't have a good answer. My guess, it seems the price of silver will remain high in the near future despite the strengthening of the USD in recent weeks.
Lior]]> Thu, 22 Nov 2012 13:37:40 -0500 The chart above is for 2012. I have also checked for 2011, and there was also a drop in the linear correlation between silver and SLW around the end of the quarter in most of the quarters (except during the first few months of 2011). So it might not be just a recent trend.
Regarding your next question, I don't have a good answer. My guess, it seems the price of silver will remain high in the near future despite the strengthening of the USD in recent weeks.
Lior]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/978151/comments?source=feed#comment-11383051 11383051 http://alturl.com/9963z ). Assuming this theory is correct (I think it has some validity but didn't buy it completely) then if the LT interest rates will rise, this could pull back the price of gold.]]> Thu, 08 Nov 2012 14:50:14 -0500 http://alturl.com/9963z ). Assuming this theory is correct (I think it has some validity but didn't buy it completely) then if the LT interest rates will rise, this could pull back the price of gold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/978151/comments?source=feed#comment-11276221 11276221 Tue, 06 Nov 2012 08:35:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/915751/comments?source=feed#comment-10429481 10429481
I have used September 14th in order to show that following the FOMC decision, which became public on September 13th, the price of silver remained nearly flat. Thus showing there was an anticlimax following the announcement of QE3. ]]> Thu, 11 Oct 2012 13:03:44 -0400
I have used September 14th in order to show that following the FOMC decision, which became public on September 13th, the price of silver remained nearly flat. Thus showing there was an anticlimax following the announcement of QE3. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/897471/comments?source=feed#comment-10199701 10199701 Fri, 05 Oct 2012 09:46:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/897471/comments?source=feed#comment-10062901 10062901 I wrote this post over the weekend and didn't expect NG to rise precipitately (again) on the first day of the week/month. I thought it will reach $3.5 over the course of the week. In this case, perhaps the $3.7 or even as you have proposed $3.8 isn't so far off as well. ]]> Tue, 02 Oct 2012 02:04:07 -0400 I wrote this post over the weekend and didn't expect NG to rise precipitately (again) on the first day of the week/month. I thought it will reach $3.5 over the course of the week. In this case, perhaps the $3.7 or even as you have proposed $3.8 isn't so far off as well. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/897471/comments?source=feed#comment-10062821 10062821 Thanks for the update.
I took that figure from the EIA recent report, which, as you have pointed out, was from the week earlier. ]]> Tue, 02 Oct 2012 01:56:02 -0400 Thanks for the update.
I took that figure from the EIA recent report, which, as you have pointed out, was from the week earlier. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/897471/comments?source=feed#comment-10046721 10046721 Thanks for the correction. ]]> Mon, 01 Oct 2012 14:48:03 -0400 Thanks for the correction. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/871131/comments?source=feed#comment-9556541 9556541
According to the my calculations and best guess, I think the levels will be around 4,000. But this figure could change if the weather, mainly Hurricanes, will affect production.
Lior ]]> Mon, 17 Sep 2012 18:05:11 -0400
According to the my calculations and best guess, I think the levels will be around 4,000. But this figure could change if the weather, mainly Hurricanes, will affect production.
Lior ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/871131/comments?source=feed#comment-9556481 9556481
When future prices are in contango this means, by definition, that the spot is lower than the future, and if the gap rises, more than just discount and interest, than this could suggest that the price of natural gas will rise in the next term.
Lior]]> Mon, 17 Sep 2012 18:03:20 -0400
When future prices are in contango this means, by definition, that the spot is lower than the future, and if the gap rises, more than just discount and interest, than this could suggest that the price of natural gas will rise in the next term.
Lior]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/862611/comments?source=feed#comment-9402541 9402541
I have used July 31st to show what the prices have done in recent months; in the past I have used a yearly scale.
Lior ]]> Thu, 13 Sep 2012 10:56:30 -0400
I have used July 31st to show what the prices have done in recent months; in the past I have used a yearly scale.
Lior ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/862611/comments?source=feed#comment-9402371 9402371
I'm not certain if the above-mentioned possibilities will have a strong effect on silver and gold as QE3 will. I have pointed out that they will also likely to pull up bullion and are among the other actions the Fed might consider. Keep in mind that the Fed did try a couple of other stimulus actions such as pledge to keep short terms rates low until late 2014 and operation twist ( raising the maturity of Fed's assets). It seems
that both actions didn't have a strong effect on bullion as QE1+Q2 had on gold and silver.
In any case let's see what will the Fed decide.
Lior]]> Thu, 13 Sep 2012 10:54:52 -0400
I'm not certain if the above-mentioned possibilities will have a strong effect on silver and gold as QE3 will. I have pointed out that they will also likely to pull up bullion and are among the other actions the Fed might consider. Keep in mind that the Fed did try a couple of other stimulus actions such as pledge to keep short terms rates low until late 2014 and operation twist ( raising the maturity of Fed's assets). It seems
that both actions didn't have a strong effect on bullion as QE1+Q2 had on gold and silver.
In any case let's see what will the Fed decide.
Lior]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/808861/comments?source=feed#comment-8471561 8471561 My main point was divided into two parts: on the one hand the company, Silver Wheaton, is performing well: there is a rise in production and the company expanded its operations and continues to do so. On the other, the company still relied on the price of silver and if the price will dwindle it will impede the company's growth and lower its earnings. Therefore I think the company is expanding its operations and is performing well considering the market it works at and the decline in silver prices. Hope this clears up my point.
Lior ]]> Thu, 16 Aug 2012 14:07:57 -0400 My main point was divided into two parts: on the one hand the company, Silver Wheaton, is performing well: there is a rise in production and the company expanded its operations and continues to do so. On the other, the company still relied on the price of silver and if the price will dwindle it will impede the company's growth and lower its earnings. Therefore I think the company is expanding its operations and is performing well considering the market it works at and the decline in silver prices. Hope this clears up my point.
Lior ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/714911/comments?source=feed#comment-7282051 7282051 Wed, 11 Jul 2012 13:09:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/656431/comments?source=feed#comment-6448651 6448651 Fri, 15 Jun 2012 03:54:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/656431/comments?source=feed#comment-6433091 6433091 My recent analysis of this week's EIA NG report
http://alturl.com/wrwwf]]> Thu, 14 Jun 2012 16:25:55 -0400 My recent analysis of this week's EIA NG report
http://alturl.com/wrwwf]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/638031/comments?source=feed#comment-6129061 6129061 Tue, 05 Jun 2012 12:28:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/525301/comments?source=feed#comment-4804171 4804171 Thu, 26 Apr 2012 03:48:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/484231/comments?source=feed#comment-4285741 4285741 As you may have noticed I don't do TA so you won't find a precise price outlook. On the other hand I do provide a general outlook of the main events and news that may affect the prices of bullion. The direction of bullion prices may shift based on these events; I can only estimate what will be the direction of these reports and thus how will the market react to these news items.

In any case, based on the events and reports to be published during the week and my projections of these events, I speculate the gold market will moderately rise on a weekly scale. ]]> Tue, 10 Apr 2012 10:56:31 -0400 As you may have noticed I don't do TA so you won't find a precise price outlook. On the other hand I do provide a general outlook of the main events and news that may affect the prices of bullion. The direction of bullion prices may shift based on these events; I can only estimate what will be the direction of these reports and thus how will the market react to these news items.

In any case, based on the events and reports to be published during the week and my projections of these events, I speculate the gold market will moderately rise on a weekly scale. ]]>