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rv3lynn

rv3lynn
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  • Ford Mustang Turns Over A New Leaf [View article]
    Mustang will be sold in many more countries than before. Overall sales will be up dramatically.

    When poorboy Germans and Italians figure out that they can get 400+ hp for half the cost of a BMW, they will line up to buy. HP and IRS are important to them. Surely Ford will delete the 145mph limiter for these guys.

    Camaro and Challenger cannot compete, too fat for European roads.
    Sep 19 10:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Mustang Turns Over A New Leaf [View article]
    Rule Number 1

    Never buy first year production of any vehicle. Ford, Chevy, even Toyota.

    You are the guinea pig.
    Sep 19 09:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Oil Sands Update: The Mildred Lake Mine Trains [View article]
    When "peak oil" was the theory of the day, we could look forward to $300/bbl oil, and the worldwide difficulties that might follow.

    But, you have coined the phase "peak cheap oil", implying a peak, but at a much lower price.

    Considering the potential reserves that can be booked with planned oil sands projects and the current proven fracable shale projects there is no doubt that there will be no shortage of hydrocarbons for the next 20 years. The "cheap oil peak" may be higher than you think.

    Hubbard's theory is still true, but he did not live long enough to see the total curve.

    P.S. Real oilmen do not put a k on frac. FYI.
    Sep 19 09:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Prime International Assets That Will Propel ConocoPhillips Higher [View article]
    Initial expectations for Clair wells were were 4000 boepd. Offshore, deep, expensive. Just a guess $50 million per well. Big op costs.

    Eagle Ford average 1000 boepd , well cost in development phase maybe $4 million per well. Low, low op costs.

    Simple math.
    Sep 16 01:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Prime International Assets That Will Propel ConocoPhillips Higher [View article]
    I have heard from reliable sources that EOG can drill as many 3000 BOPD wells in the Eagle Ford as they want. These are infill locations on proven HBP leases. BUT, they do not do so due to infrastructure limitations with regards to moving product and concerns about driving production increase rates to unsustainable levels. They are saving for the future.

    COP is in a similar situation. Their EF acreage is second in quality only to EOG, but it is still very, very good.

    COP raised their EF target rate from 125 mboepd to 250 mboepd. This is clear as a bell. These EF wells are the best oil wells in the USA.

    So, what to do with Clair. It's the biggest oilfield in Europe in terms of oil in place. Tough offshore environment, tough rock, expensive and high op costs.

    Simple decision, sell out, and drill more EF wells.

    Buying more COP tomorrow.
    Sep 16 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Remain On Sidelines For Events To Unfold [View article]
    I am checking out Awiilco. Any company that is a real golden chicken has to have potential.
    Sep 15 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Storms Headed Towards Tesla's Ship [View article]
    Point #4 is baloney.

    In Texas you can't buy directly from Tesla due to the dealers cozying up to the legislature.

    But, it is a no brainer to buy a car out of state and make the transfer legally. I have done it several times.

    After all, Texas just wants the 6.25% sales tax, which they collect on all out of state transfers.

    I'm sure Georgia is no different. Follow the money.
    Sep 13 12:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Model X Pre-Orders To Feed The Momentum [View article]
    solucky,

    I agree, I expect global shrinking sales of the Model S in 2016, The high end sedan market probably will be satiated.

    But, in the U.S., the sedan market is only strong at the $25,000 level, i.e. Camry/Accord. The Model S does not compete in that market.

    The real upscale market is for SUV/CUVs. The Model X will take some market share here, perhaps not a significant percentage, but my best guess is that sales will be 4 or 5 times Model S.

    The sales and production ramp up will continue to support the stock.

    I plan to buy one myself. I have no reservation yet, but I am thinking about it.
    Sep 12 10:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla's Heavily-Promoted Shares Could Prove To Be Fool's Gold [View article]
    A practical electric car could completely change the dynamics and economics of transportation in this country. It is starting, but it can't happen overnight.

    Suppose if electric cars are in fact the wave of the future, then who is leading the pack? The honest truth is that the major manufacturers are holding back, waiting, waiting to see what might happen. They certainly are not leading.

    So instead little Tesla leads.

    What does Tesla have to do to break into the old boy's club of car manufacturing?

    They start by building the best car that they can, given limited resources. They have been surprisingly successful with the Model S.

    The car business is cash intensive, they must raise cash. So there is a little bit of stock promotion on Wall Street, where we know almost everyone is a little bit crooked, it's standard procedure. At least, as investors, we know that that is normal. GAAP vs. non-GAAP is no big deal to a lot of us.

    The conclusion is that they will do anything and everything that they possibly can do to be successful. They must do this, in order to compete on the unlevel playing field with the entrenched auto manufacturers.

    So, more power to Tesla. You argue that the stock is overvalued. So what, I don't care. I'm in pretty cheap, if it loses value, no big deal. I've been killed on other stocks that had no plan to change the future. This one is different. The important thing is that the IDEA and the PLAN are worth supporting. It's more important than the money.

    So we are not selling our 3 or 4 or 5 bagger just for the profit. The higher the stock price, the more likely it is for Tesla to succeed.

    There are a lot of us that think like this.
    Sep 11 02:11 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Government Health Care Inc: The Chart Which Explains The Whole Medical Mess [View article]
    Amen brother.

    When I go to the doc or the hospital these days I don't know if it will be $100 or $10,000. The lack of transparency in the health care business is the most serious problem in the industry as far as consumers are concerned.

    The simple lack of transparency probably escalates costs 100%.
    Sep 10 10:35 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Important Indicator Says Crude Oil Is Going Lower [View article]
    Let's see:

    Bakken production 2008, zero, 2014 1.1 million boepd.
    Eagle Ford production 2008, zero, 2014 1.4 million boepd.
    Permian Basin production up 89% since 2009.
    Colorado production, mostly Cretaceous, doubled since 2008, up 90,000 boepd.

    Simple math.

    Remember, the anointed one said "We can't drill our way out of this problem."

    But we are.
    Sep 1 10:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Down 25% Each, Is It Time To Buy Ruger And Smith & Wesson? [View article]
    Amazing. Now someone in Chicago besides a gangbanger will have a gun?

    Equalization will occur over time.
    Aug 30 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Coast Oil Trust: Regulatory Fears Unfounded, While Units Yield 15% And Sell At A Discount [View article]
    If the local California government entity tries to steal assets from the owners of mineral rights, there will be war, and they (govt) should lose.

    If the local govt should win, then property rights, a basic tenet of the American dream, are no longer sacred.

    Property rights defined the American revolution. Perhaps California does not fit in with us real Americans.
    Aug 22 09:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    Were you to stand on the floor of a 6th generation SDRL deep water floater and look around, you might sense, but probably would not understand, that the technology in daily use on this rig is equal or perhaps better than that utilized in NASA's latest Mars mission.

    It seems strange to me to compare and contrast a deep water drilling company that utilizes today's most advanced technology with an old school candy company.

    I like chocolate, but I'm long SDRL.
    Aug 22 09:09 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oil And Gas Companies Must Restructure To Remain Profitable [View article]
    Oil producers make lots of profit when oil prices increase because development and operating costs lag behind oil price increases.

    Then, when profits are high, oil producers voluntarily pay higher prices for services in order to maintain higher production rates.

    This automatically supports escalating service prices.

    When oil prices flatten, as they have recently, service costs are still escalating, and are now starting to lead oil prices. In order to maintain profitability producers then start cutting budgets, reducing exploration and generally crying the blues. And stock prices get variable.

    When producers start cutting back, service companies wise up quickly - they are very nimble. Invoices are cut, discounts go up, profits go down, but everybody is still working.

    The lead/lag curve has happened in every historic oil boom/bust cycle. It is nothing new.
    Aug 9 01:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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