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rv3lynn

rv3lynn
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  • ConocoPhillips Targets Positive Cash Flows By 2017 - Is This Reason Enough To Go Long? [View article]
    Any real oilman that has been around knows that the price of oil is never correct.

    It is either too high, or too low. It doesn't spend much time in the middle.

    COP management is very smart. They know that today oil price is too low. But they are prepared for this. I mean give me a break, 35% CAPEX cut with 2-3% production increase. How can you you want more???

    But when oil price recovers, which it will, they will be off to the races with their excellent land position and technological advantage.
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Export Ban: Are There Reasons Not To Repeal? [View article]
    The crude oil export ban was originally passed when the US had almost no ability to export crude. Was this the right thing to do then? No. Why bother?

    Now, 40 years later, when everything has changed, do you expect the geniuses in Congress to do the right thing now by correcting their mistake of 40 years ago?

    Not a chance.
    Mar 23, 2015. 01:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Helmerich & Payne: An Example Of Why Management Strategies Are Important For Investors [View article]
    Last week there were 31 rigs stacked (vertically) in HP's Odessa yard.

    Driving by it's like whistling past the graveyard.
    Mar 17, 2015. 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Atlantic Drilling: West Navigator Contract Termination Points To Possible End Of Rosneft Accord [View article]
    Because I don't think it will rain this summer. But it probably will rain next winter. The grass will grow again in the spring and the ranch will be saved.
    Mar 15, 2015. 10:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Atlantic Drilling: West Navigator Contract Termination Points To Possible End Of Rosneft Accord [View article]
    NADL was a solid company in good times. Then they bet the ranch with Rosneft. It would have been a great bet except for those pesky US independents that turned the oil world on it's ear by increasing production at unprecedented rates with technology and imagination, just like always. The ranch now is close to foreclosure.

    Still, I do agree, you could add NADL at an attractive price, maybe 50 cents/share.
    Mar 15, 2015. 01:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Band-Aid For A Bullet Wound: Al-Naimi's Bullish Comments On Oil Won't Be Enough To Obscure Alarming Inventory Picture [View article]
    If this continues, by the time the rig count gets to zero, oil production will be 15 million BOPD.
    Mar 5, 2015. 03:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Realty Income, And Where I Reinvested The Proceeds [View article]
    It was nice watching O go up the last few months, it partially compensated for the declines in my energy stocks.

    Besides, what's wrong with 4% yield?
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Royal Dutch Shell Earnings [View article]
    I suppose the point of interest here is that RDS.B will still be here in 2050.

    I won't be here then. So do I give a damn even though I am currently long RDS.B?

    Something to think about.
    Feb 2, 2015. 02:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Ford's Europe Results Keep Us Bullish [View article]
    Europe for Ford will improve.

    Mustang beats the tar out of every equivalent performance car for sale on the continent. Even with a strong dollar Mustang will sell, as it is a bargain compared to any of the comparable high performance European coupes.
    Feb 2, 2015. 02:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: Review Of Q4 Earnings And What Lies In Store [View article]
    ap

    You are correct, Ford is selling lots of units. Bigisbetter overlooks the fact that being second or third in each car segment adds up to lots of sales. And when PU and SUV sales are added, Ford looks real good.

    I did not know that Ford was selling so many $50,000 units. Had looked at those F-250 King Ranch trucks with $55,000-$65,000 stickers but did not know that they were selling so well.

    Good comment.
    Jan 30, 2015. 08:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Phillips 66 marches higher after Q4 profit from gasoline sales jumps [View news story]
    "Pump prices did not fall as fast as oil prices"

    No kidding, $3.00/gallon diesel vs. $44.00/bbl WTI.

    Ya thinks somebody will "squeeze out some extra margin"?
    Jan 29, 2015. 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: A Crude Awakening Looms [View article]
    David,

    I love your boom/bust chart. Very accurate.

    My first job in the oil business was in September, 1973. I have ridden this bucking bronco for 42 years. Still alive.

    My concern with CVX is that they may have over committed on LNG. The sudden downturn in oil prices is severely impacting long term LNG prices, which may become a drag on CVX due to their large investment in Gorgon and other LNG properties.

    I think you are right, best buying days are not here yet.
    Jan 26, 2015. 12:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheniere Energy: A Scary Midstream Stock To Avoid [View article]
    Wyoming and Louisiana banning frac'ing? You kid us?

    They might ban Obama, but they damn sure won't ban frac jobs.
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:02 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Games Energy Producers Play (On Investors) [View article]
    A lot of clarity in this article. Say you are looking at a horizontal well type curve of 500 MBOE. A GREAT well!. So 500MBO @ $100/bbl gets you $50 million gross revenue. Wow, how can you go wrong?

    Well, price of all components went down. Product mix actually is as follows:

    Oil 200MBOE now $45/bbl is $9 million
    NGL 200MBOE now $25/bbl is $5 million
    Gas 200MBOE now $2.50/MCF is $3 million

    Total $17 million gross revenue less 35% (tax and royalty) leaves $11 million prior to production costs. Well cost was $7 million.

    It is a sorry state of affairs when a 500,000 BOE well will not make 2 to 1 with a 20 year well life.
    Jan 23, 2015. 08:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Roils: Disconnect Between Price And Economics [View article]
    I wouldn't bet on that. At $20/bbl I will shut in 80% of my existing production, leave only enough wells on line to hold the leases and then take a vacation. And I won't be the only one to do so.
    Jan 23, 2015. 07:59 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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