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rv3lynn

rv3lynn
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  • Phillips 66 marches higher after Q4 profit from gasoline sales jumps [View news story]
    "Pump prices did not fall as fast as oil prices"

    No kidding, $3.00/gallon diesel vs. $44.00/bbl WTI.

    Ya thinks somebody will "squeeze out some extra margin"?
    Jan 29, 2015. 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: A Crude Awakening Looms [View article]
    David,

    I love your boom/bust chart. Very accurate.

    My first job in the oil business was in September, 1973. I have ridden this bucking bronco for 42 years. Still alive.

    My concern with CVX is that they may have over committed on LNG. The sudden downturn in oil prices is severely impacting long term LNG prices, which may become a drag on CVX due to their large investment in Gorgon and other LNG properties.

    I think you are right, best buying days are not here yet.
    Jan 26, 2015. 12:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheniere Energy: A Scary Midstream Stock To Avoid [View article]
    Wyoming and Louisiana banning frac'ing? You kid us?

    They might ban Obama, but they damn sure won't ban frac jobs.
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:02 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Games Energy Producers Play (On Investors) [View article]
    A lot of clarity in this article. Say you are looking at a horizontal well type curve of 500 MBOE. A GREAT well!. So 500MBO @ $100/bbl gets you $50 million gross revenue. Wow, how can you go wrong?

    Well, price of all components went down. Product mix actually is as follows:

    Oil 200MBOE now $45/bbl is $9 million
    NGL 200MBOE now $25/bbl is $5 million
    Gas 200MBOE now $2.50/MCF is $3 million

    Total $17 million gross revenue less 35% (tax and royalty) leaves $11 million prior to production costs. Well cost was $7 million.

    It is a sorry state of affairs when a 500,000 BOE well will not make 2 to 1 with a 20 year well life.
    Jan 23, 2015. 08:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Roils: Disconnect Between Price And Economics [View article]
    I wouldn't bet on that. At $20/bbl I will shut in 80% of my existing production, leave only enough wells on line to hold the leases and then take a vacation. And I won't be the only one to do so.
    Jan 23, 2015. 07:59 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Main Bearish Thesis On Crude [View article]
    Paulo,

    BHP did not shut in their wells.

    They released 40% of their active drilling rigs.

    That is what all operators are doing right now.

    NO ONE will shut in their producing wells.
    Jan 21, 2015. 01:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons This Crude Move Is Unbelievable [View article]
    Amen brother,

    Flew through Guadalupe Pass not long ago. That's exactly what that graph looks like.
    Jan 21, 2015. 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HRT ParticipaƧƵes And Oleo E Gas Participacoes - Lessons Learned From The Disasters [View article]
    I first heard about OGX in an Oil and Gas Journal article that estimated that they would be producing 1.65 million BOPD by now due to their many discoveries.

    A little more study showed that they indeed had discovered a number of promising oil and gas fields. So I bought some shares.

    What I didn't realize was that almost all of the oil finds were in areas that required very expensive development programs. It turned out that almost all of their discoveries, even the ones that would produce 5000 BOPD per well, were actually noncommercial.

    Plus, the CEO was pretty full of himself, that didn't help.

    It's one thing to lose some money on a stock investment, but it is something else to lose it all. Cured me of investing in small speculative oil companies.
    Jan 20, 2015. 10:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Mario Draghi Put A Floor Under Oil? [View article]
    In Europe somewhere between 60-70% of the cost of gasoline and diesel is tax.

    So what if the crude oil input cost drops 50%. The consumer will hardly notice.

    I don't know how this could possibly "put a floor under oil".
    Jan 20, 2015. 12:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lack Of Momentum Hitting Tesla [View article]
    I disagree that the Model X is not critical to Tesla's success.

    The Model X probably will sell in volumes that are twice those of the Model S. Every soccer mom wants an SUV - not a sedan. My wife told me this.

    The revenue stream from the Model X will be substantially more than the Model S.

    Also, I think we will be surprised by unexpected added value in the X, like extra range, features, nice seats or something else. I don't think the holdup is due to the Falcon doors. I really believe that they will deliver a stunning product.

    We will see.
    Jan 20, 2015. 12:23 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Detroit Auto Show: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly And Tesla [View article]
    Anton,

    You forgot to mention that the Ford Mustang GT350R, a streetable, but track ready race car, will probably steal a few sales from the Tesla Model X.
    Jan 19, 2015. 12:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Money Dries Up For Oil And Gas, Layoffs Spread, Write-Offs Start [View article]
    I have had an account at Bank of America in Midland, Texas for 38 years.

    I went in one day and asked if I could get a loan on an oil property acquisition.

    They said "No, we do not make oil property loans. But, we will loan you some money on a refrigerator or a used car if you want."

    So, do you think these guys have a clue about share prices of any company involved in the oil business? Not likely.
    Jan 19, 2015. 12:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil: What Doesn't Kill Me Makes Me Stronger [View article]
    According to their slide CLR thinks that their Woodford Condensate wells will produce 1,725,000 BOE per location.

    If this is true, these wells can be profitably drilled at $10.00/bbl oil price.

    Maybe the Saudis should be worried.
    Jan 14, 2015. 01:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything Has Changed: Oil, Saudi Arabia, And The End Of OPEC [View article]
    One of the very best articles ever on SA.

    The Saudi's single handedly stabilized the oil market from 1981 to 1985 at the high price of $30/bbl by reducing their own production from 10 million BOPD in 1981 to 2 million BOPD in 1985 (from memory, more or less).

    No one else in OPEC or in the major oil companies was cutting production.

    In December, 1985, the Saudi's decided enough was enough, they increased production and started a price war that lasted for 15 years.

    So this year, when they were asked to cut production, I think that they honestly believed that no one else would actually participate and that they alone would bear the cuts.

    They had been there and done that. No dice.

    Plus this time they are really worried about those pesky Americans with their penchant for developing new technology like horizontal drilling, fracing, steerable deep water intercepts and heaven forbid, super high performance electric cars (Tesla P85D).

    They know that they need to sell their oil now. And that is what they are doing.

    Great article.
    Jan 12, 2015. 10:47 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Sales Justify Our Optimism About Ford [View article]
    Interesting observation here. The original GT was a screaming bargain at mas o menos $125,000. I don't know why Ford limited production of those cars, perhaps they were losing money on each one? At any rate nice original GT cars now sell in the $250,000 - $350,000 range.

    Hoping that Ford will sell as many new GT cars as they can make, hopefully at a reasonable price. And don't limit production.
    Jan 12, 2015. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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