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rv3lynn

rv3lynn
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  • Market Irrationality: The Santander Case [View article]
    I knew a fellow here that started an oil company and went public with it. He told me once "Being public allows you to print your own money."

    SAN scrip dividend smacks of this for sure, but I keep taking it.
    Nov 26, 2014. 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd.: My Game Plan For Tomorrow [View article]
    SDRL will not cut the dividend tomorrow.

    The oil business is a cyclical business. Everyone knows this. What is not so obvious is that all of the participants in the industry are not on the same cycle at the same time.

    When oil prices start an uptrend, production company income increases. The prices paid to service companies lag behind what the production company receives. Production company profits expand at this time. Due to expanding profits the production company invests more and starts requiring more services. Service companies recognize the increased demand and raise prices. As long as crude prices are on an incline curve, service companies can keep raising their rates. This continues as long as oil prices escalate.

    When oil prices suddenly decline, production company profits decrease dramatically. Service costs, particularly in the offshore drilling industry, are locked in contractually at elevated levels. Now service companies have the upper hand until the contracts wear off and service costs are driven down. The point here is that service company profits lag on the oil price increase and lead on a price decline.

    Unhedged production companies have lost 30% of their cash flow and probably 60% of their profit in the last 3 months.

    Offshore drilling companies have not suffered anything close to this, yet their stocks have been devastated to a greater degree than the production companies. This is difficult to rationalize.

    SDRL is not hurting now, and will not cut the dividend tomorrow.

    A year from now might be a different story.
    Nov 25, 2014. 11:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Isn't Getting Better - Things Just Can't Get Much Worse [View article]
    My wife is a pretty sharp cookie. She says "Invest in what I like." So far she has been spot on, COST, PNRA, CMG.

    MCD is not on the list. The honest truth is that on our last few visits to MCD, usually on the road, the food was bad, the service was bad and their attitude was bad. Now, when you are starving to death on I-44 you will put up with this, but the rest of the time - NO.

    Recomendation - sell.
    Nov 25, 2014. 01:36 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Ford Motor Company [View article]
    Well, the Focus is doing OK selling a few cars here and there and the aluminum F-150 probably will do OK too.

    But the real winner coming down the pike is the GT-350. The Germans will buy so many that the European deficit will go positive. We probably will have to pay over sticker here just to get one.

    I just hope Ford doesn't do something stupid like they did with the GT and limit total production.
    Nov 22, 2014. 11:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Bullish Ford Note Supports Our $28.50 Price Target [View article]
    Like a polished airframe. Great to look at but a PIA to keep looking good.

    Rest assured, someone will do this.
    Nov 17, 2014. 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Bullish Ford Note Supports Our $28.50 Price Target [View article]
    So everyone from Oklahoma should now be ignored?
    Nov 17, 2014. 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Special Investment Rules? [View article]
    Just the true facts pot. No big oil conspiracy theories around here today.
    Nov 17, 2014. 10:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor: The F-150 - Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain [View article]
    You do know that the B787 airframe is primarily composites, not aluminum?
    Nov 16, 2014. 12:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From The Next Generation Of Fracking [View article]
    Thomas,

    I am sure that you are a fine young man. But clearly, you are not a scientist.

    You do not understand what is going on in the stimulation business and you should not be writing SA articles if you don't have a clue.

    Stick to what you really know.
    Nov 15, 2014. 02:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Special Investment Rules? [View article]
    jtb,

    I have been in the bidding business for a while. I can tell you for sure that bidding against a woman is a bad plan.

    cparmerlee does not like TSLA. She believes the company will fail. She promotes that possibility endlessly. I don't know why.

    Tesla produces the best electric car on the planet. They are improving their product on a daily basis. Why criticize a company that is doing their dead level best to introduce usable electric cars to all of us?

    I am in the oil business. I make my living selling barrels of crude oil. But I see the future, and I am excited. And I am long TSLA.
    Nov 15, 2014. 01:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Special Investment Rules? [View article]
    Reminder.

    to make a profit they must increase their prices and lose their business.

    Pick up the pace solucky!!
    Nov 15, 2014. 01:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Tackling The Manufacturing Issue [View article]
    Excellent point here. If I buy a widgit online I get bombarded with widgit ads.

    I follow TSLA like a hawk and have never had a TSLA ad show up on my screen.

    If Tesla spent $9 million for promotion last year it probably went for cocktail parties for their hands, it certainly did not get spent on internet advertising.

    Actually, I anxiously await my first Tesla advertisement!
    Nov 15, 2014. 01:10 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar, Gold, Commodities, Stocks And Bonds Dance To The Same Tune [View article]
    "The dollar is rising because the U.S. has become a net exporter of fossil fuel".

    Not true, not even close to true.

    We still import about 6 million BOPD of crude oil. We have backed out about 4 million BOPD of imports due to our increased shale oil production.

    We are exporting about 2.6 million BPD of refined products but only because they can be sold at world price which is greater than domestic price.

    We are not exporting crude oil (illegal) or significant LNG (yet). Some NGLs are moving.
    Nov 15, 2014. 12:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford: Finally Ready To Roll In 2015 [View article]
    Carbon buildup can be a problem in DI engines. Solution is to install a catch can oil separator in the PCV line. Sure, maybe Ford should have done it, but they didn't.

    BTW, 3.5 Ecoboost outperforms 5.0 AND gets better mileage.

    I am with you on the GT. I want one bad but they foolishly refused to make enough to satisfy demand so prices started high and went up from there. Mistake.

    P.S. I was in at $2.00.
    Nov 15, 2014. 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Keeping Up Appearances [View article]
    Ackman is not trying to save the poor folks that get involved with HLF. He is trying to make money for his fund, and ultimately himself.

    He might stretch the truth here and there to accomplish that goal.

    BTW, my wife is an HLF distributer. She has made an actual profit the last two years selling products only, no recruitment.

    Does that make her a 1%er??
    Nov 9, 2014. 03:06 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
435 Comments
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