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rv3lynn

rv3lynn
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  • Genuine Parts Should Be Recession Proof In The Next Downturn [View article]
    Professional mechanics and knowledgeable do it your selfers know that NAPA sells the best quality auto parts.

    Less professional mechanics and low budget guys buy at Autozone and Advance.

    Both segments are doing well. Hopefully there will always be a quality vendor like NAPA in the mix.
    Sep 28, 2012. 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust At $20 [View article]
    There are people that buy BPT on the yield without knowing what they are actually buying.

    I suspect the same will hold true for CHKR. In fact it could be a decent investment for the next couple of years. After that only a spike in gas prices will help.

    Remember, a 20 year time frame could contain a couple of booms or busts in gas pricing. Anyone that bought in 1998 is a genius now. Over the life of this trust I expect price swings of serious magnitude. Entry and exit points will be critical.
    Sep 25, 2012. 01:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Phillips 66 For Strong Oil Refining Profit Growth [View article]
    Simple - They buy WTI cheap because there is so much new production coming to market and then they sell the products based on the higher LLS (Brent) price. Voila! Instant profit!

    This is great if you are long PSX. Yes.

    It sucks if you produce WTI. Yes.
    Sep 23, 2012. 10:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Ford As European Division Turns Around [View article]
    Wow buddy, I didn't know Ford sucked so bad.

    Had I listened to you I wouldn't be:

    Long F @ $2.00
    Long F250 w/240,000 miles
    Long 400Hp Mustang 5.0.
    Long many more.

    If you don't like F go buy Fiat or some other POS. Many of us are perfectly happy with things as they are.
    Sep 22, 2012. 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Oil And Gas Stocks Keeping Debt Down And Projected For Big Growth [View article]
    You better hope CHK can sell enough assets to fund the drilling of the rest of the development wells.

    Their words " There is no assurance of any revenue distribution".

    My best guess is that their obligations to the royalty pool are at the bottom of their list of wells to drill. Remember, they took their cash up front at the IPO, a lifetime ago.
    Sep 20, 2012. 11:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baby Boomer Demographics: The Shift Ahead [View article]
    The facts are that in good times the government runs a deficit and in the bad times it runs a bigger deficit.

    Trust the government? No thanks.
    Sep 20, 2012. 11:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Top-Down Car Market [View article]
    Went bird hunting last weekend with three friends. Two drove Chevy Suburbans and the other a new F150 EcoBoost pickup.

    The F150 driver had traded in a Chevy. He was so mad at GM over the bailout that he had written a letter to management stating that he would never buy another GM product. He did receive a reply guiding him to a GM website trying to explain, but he was not interested.

    One of the Suburban drivers spent Saturday at the Toyota dealership, looking at Sequoias.

    The other, who has driven Suburbans for at least 20 years, stated he was buying a Ford Expedition next time around.

    Chevy may run deep, but disdain for the GM bailout runs deeper.

    Long F.
    Sep 19, 2012. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Infinity: It's The OIL, Stupid [View article]
    Michael,

    I rechecked my calculations above and realized I had made an error. Under those assumptions the natgas cars would only back out 2 million barrels oil per month, not per day.

    Still a good idea though.

    As atonement I will wear my "genius" hat for the rest of the day.
    Sep 19, 2012. 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Infinity: It's The OIL, Stupid [View article]
    Here is a mind game for you Michael.

    Instead of buying $40 billion/month of paper, the "genius" government should spend the same amount and buy 160,000 Honda Civic natgas cars per month. Each car would save about 42 gal per month of crude oil or 160,000 bopd per month. At the end of one year we would have backed out almost 2 million bopd of imports.

    The government could just give the cars away, since that is what they are doing with the money anyway. Anyone that gets a free car will be glad to hunt up a natgas station. Suddenly, natgas stations will appear out of the woodwork.

    The 160,000 cars per month, if built in the USA, would add a bunch of jobs. Not sure how many, but a bunch.

    Plus, natgas will go back to $6.00/mcf (still cheaper than gasoline) and the gas drilling business will boom. Meaning more jobs. Plus, sales, ad valorem and severance taxes in producing areas will increase. Government workers could go back to work.

    The only losers are the Venezuelans and the Saudis.

    Unfortunately, I am no "genius", so my ideas cannot qualify for government consideration.
    Sep 18, 2012. 10:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron's (CVX +0.2%) part in of Chesapeake’s (CHK +0.1%) $6.9B land sale in the Permian Basin isn’t a surprise to Tudor Pickering considering the oil giant’s presence there already, but it’s "somewhat surprising" Shell (RDS.A -0.2%) is involved, as it has "not much, if any, Permian exposure currently." [View news story]
    A couple of oil booms ago the majors spent lots of profits buying leases.

    They did nothing.

    Now they are again spending their profits buying leases. They must do something with profits!

    They will write these leases off also.

    RDS is clueless in the Permian.
    Sep 13, 2012. 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conoco Phillips' Presentation At The Barclays Energy Conference [View article]
    Michael,

    I did a Eagle Ford summary back in April, things are changing fast.

    At that time COP was at about 60,000 BPD and EOG was bearing down on 100,000 BPD.

    These numbers are based on company reports which split production into three phases, oil, NGL and gas. Production to the RRC is only in two phases, so company press reports are more accurate in liquids rich plays.

    I have no data for the 120,000 BPD number for EOG except that it came from the horse's mouth.

    As for CHK, their acreage is mostly on the shallow NW quadrant of the play, which is generally considered to be oily, but not gassy enough to gin up good recovery factors. They have a few good wells on the very southern part of their acreage. Generally speaking, they were late to the party in the Eagle Ford.
    Sep 13, 2012. 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 2) [View article]
    As far as I know, Chevron has no operated interest in any horizontal well/big frac shale play anywhere in the world.

    Chevron/YPF could be a case of the blind leading the blind.
    Sep 10, 2012. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conoco Phillips' Presentation At The Barclays Energy Conference [View article]
    COP is strong in the Eagle Ford but trails EOG. EOG is at 120,000 BPD right now and is probably drilling the best wells in the play at the lowest cost.

    Still, I like COP and doubled down on PSX after the split. What's not to like?
    Sep 10, 2012. 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    Caiman,

    Thanks for your research on YPF. I have some "dead money" in this stock and have no hope of going positive. BUT, any company, stolen or not, that can claim 20 billion barrels of possible reserves needs to be followed.

    Plus, your analysis is usually spot on, thorough and accurate.

    Keep up the good work. Most of us appreciate it!
    Sep 10, 2012. 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Blazes Into September With Another Recall [View article]
    In my 45 years of dinking with cars, race cars, trucks and etc., I have never seen nor heard of a coolant fire.

    Now, I am scared to death.
    Sep 7, 2012. 10:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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