Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View rv3lynn's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • U.S. Poised To Retake Status As Net Petroleum Products Exporter [View article]
    You have several confusions in your report.

    First, the U.S. is not a net oil exporter. The U.S. is a net exporter of refined products. Not the same thing.

    Second, the Bakken play is not shale gas - it is shale oil. Production in October, 2011 was 488,000 BOPD. Light sweet crude, not gas equivalents. Plus increasing at an exponential rate.

    Third, Eagle Ford crude and condensate production has averaged 110,000 BPD for 2011 and is also rising at an exponential rate.

    These shale oil plays are the real deal.

    I don't think the U.S. can ever again become a net oil exporter.

    BUT, we are narrowing the gap, reducing imports and the resulting balance of payments in a meaningful way.

    They said we could never drill our way out of this problem, except maybe we are....
    Dec 22, 2011. 09:47 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Oil Stocks: Do Not Count On A Major Slowdown In The U.S. Oil Production Growth [View article]
    Can you imagine where we would be today had the shale revolution not materialized?

    1) 3+ million BOPD would have to be coming from somewhere, Saudis, Iran?? Price maybe $150/bbl.

    2) NGLs still at par with crude, how about propane at $5/gallon - every day.

    3) Nat gas - U.S. would be a net importer with LNG at $15/mcf.

    Not to mention that we perhaps would never have recovered from the Great Recession.

    The shale revolution is the best thing that has happened here since the internet. At $100/bbl all oilmen have been frantic in their efforts to increase production and have been successful.

    Oil at $100/bbl has allowed enough profit to be made that experiments in production technology could be tried. Many failed, but some worked. That is why now the newly implemented successful technologies are driving down development costs, and doing so to the point that $100/bbl is no longer required to continue increasing production.

    At $75/bbl perhaps the frantic pace of development will slow. U.S. production will still increase.

    If OPEC tries $50/bbl, things will really slow down here.

    But then 90% of the cartel goes bankrupt. How much self inflicted pain do you think they can stand?

    Remember, Obama said "We can't drill our way out of this problem."

    We did not ask his permission, and did it anyway.
    Nov 6, 2014. 09:18 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla's Heavily-Promoted Shares Could Prove To Be Fool's Gold [View article]
    A practical electric car could completely change the dynamics and economics of transportation in this country. It is starting, but it can't happen overnight.

    Suppose if electric cars are in fact the wave of the future, then who is leading the pack? The honest truth is that the major manufacturers are holding back, waiting, waiting to see what might happen. They certainly are not leading.

    So instead little Tesla leads.

    What does Tesla have to do to break into the old boy's club of car manufacturing?

    They start by building the best car that they can, given limited resources. They have been surprisingly successful with the Model S.

    The car business is cash intensive, they must raise cash. So there is a little bit of stock promotion on Wall Street, where we know almost everyone is a little bit crooked, it's standard procedure. At least, as investors, we know that that is normal. GAAP vs. non-GAAP is no big deal to a lot of us.

    The conclusion is that they will do anything and everything that they possibly can do to be successful. They must do this, in order to compete on the unlevel playing field with the entrenched auto manufacturers.

    So, more power to Tesla. You argue that the stock is overvalued. So what, I don't care. I'm in pretty cheap, if it loses value, no big deal. I've been killed on other stocks that had no plan to change the future. This one is different. The important thing is that the IDEA and the PLAN are worth supporting. It's more important than the money.

    So we are not selling our 3 or 4 or 5 bagger just for the profit. The higher the stock price, the more likely it is for Tesla to succeed.

    There are a lot of us that think like this.
    Sep 11, 2014. 02:11 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Ford Shale: Who's Got The Best Wells? [View article]
    If we could secede, we would. And then we would export our barrels to you oil poor Yanks, at a high price since we would be the #14 oil producing country in the world. And I suppose we would continue being "nasty" though certainly more polite than some people.
    Oct 7, 2013. 12:09 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Isn't Getting Better - Things Just Can't Get Much Worse [View article]
    My wife is a pretty sharp cookie. She says "Invest in what I like." So far she has been spot on, COST, PNRA, CMG.

    MCD is not on the list. The honest truth is that on our last few visits to MCD, usually on the road, the food was bad, the service was bad and their attitude was bad. Now, when you are starving to death on I-44 you will put up with this, but the rest of the time - NO.

    Recomendation - sell.
    Nov 25, 2014. 01:36 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Keeping Up Appearances [View article]
    Ackman is not trying to save the poor folks that get involved with HLF. He is trying to make money for his fund, and ultimately himself.

    He might stretch the truth here and there to accomplish that goal.

    BTW, my wife is an HLF distributer. She has made an actual profit the last two years selling products only, no recruitment.

    Does that make her a 1%er??
    Nov 9, 2014. 03:06 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Has Lots Of Room To Run [View article]
    The Model X with falcon doors and AWD will not be "less expensive". All expectations are that with more content it will cost more than a Model S.

    It will instead be an entry into the luxury SUV realm, a category that likely has substantially more upside than luxury sedans.

    I expect that the Model X will be a home run, so David's market share theory may hold up, even with a misunderstanding of the product.
    Sep 26, 2014. 08:48 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors: Tackling The Manufacturing Issue [View article]
    Excellent point here. If I buy a widgit online I get bombarded with widgit ads.

    I follow TSLA like a hawk and have never had a TSLA ad show up on my screen.

    If Tesla spent $9 million for promotion last year it probably went for cocktail parties for their hands, it certainly did not get spent on internet advertising.

    Actually, I anxiously await my first Tesla advertisement!
    Nov 15, 2014. 01:10 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Government Health Care Inc: The Chart Which Explains The Whole Medical Mess [View article]
    Amen brother.

    When I go to the doc or the hospital these days I don't know if it will be $100 or $10,000. The lack of transparency in the health care business is the most serious problem in the industry as far as consumers are concerned.

    The simple lack of transparency probably escalates costs 100%.
    Sep 10, 2014. 10:35 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Dividend Challengers Should Carry Warning Labels: "Caution! Not Recession Tested!" [View article]
    Were you to stand on the floor of a 6th generation SDRL deep water floater and look around, you might sense, but probably would not understand, that the technology in daily use on this rig is equal or perhaps better than that utilized in NASA's latest Mars mission.

    It seems strange to me to compare and contrast a deep water drilling company that utilizes today's most advanced technology with an old school candy company.

    I like chocolate, but I'm long SDRL.
    Aug 22, 2014. 09:09 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Has Herbalife Kept The Game Going For So Long? [View article]
    My wife is a HL distributor. She also was a true believer in the HL system.

    I told her a long time ago that the HL business model was flawed. She did not agree. We had a couple of disagreements.

    After some years of trying to make money in the HL program, she gave up.

    But she never lost faith in the products.

    Which means I have to take 6 pills per day.

    Got my blood work back yesterday. MONSTER improvement over last report.

    I don't give a damn about the stock. But IMO any person that wants to bankrupt this company for his own profit should be shot at sunrise.
    Jul 27, 2014. 12:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 24 Ways Herbalife Is Mocking The Regulators [View article]

    I don't give a damn about HLF stock. Own none.

    But I do take a lot of HLF products due to the wife.

    Went to the doc yesterday and found that my cholesterol had improved substantially in the last 6 years.

    Don't know about the business model, but I believe the products have merit.
    Jul 26, 2014. 01:05 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Has It Right And GM, Ford And Nissan Have It Wrong [View article]
    There is no free hydrogen on this planet.

    It cannot be produced naturally like oil and gas, it must be processed from other compounds at high cost and with significant energy input.

    Therefore, it is not a fuel. It can be a carrier. But it will cost a lot. More than genuine fuels.

    NatGas cars make a lot more sense.
    Oct 5, 2012. 09:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MLPs Front And Center As The U.S. Undergoes Energy Renaissance [View article]
    This is not a good article.
    Oct 17, 2014. 09:53 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Standard Gets Another Look [View article]
    Amen Michael.

    Ron Paul earned enough delegates to deserve a speaker spot at the convention. Many Republicans voted for him. His opinions are worth hearing. A fair minded chairman would have let him speak.
    Aug 30, 2012. 01:18 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment