saifl

Options Trader: Thursday Outlook

Some more bullsh** form pHil [Comment edited for abusive language. Commenter put on notice]
That's right, we have rounding errors in our inventory reports bigger than China's entire daily import consumption! China's demand will grow by 10% (300Kbd, best case) next year? Bring it on! U.S. passenger cars alone consume 10Mb of oil PER DAY, we could save 300K barrels by checking our tire pressure!

Call us when you get to 5M barrels a day, which, at the current growth rate, will be around 2015. If between today and 2015 President Gore raises the mileage requirements for cars from 20mpg to 35mpg (where Europe is now), the U.S. will save more imported oil than China is projected to consume in its entirety! What would the headlines be if we projected China's net oil demand slipping to 0 by 2015?

Russia is doing it's best for China, bumping production up 2.1% this year, that's 200Kbd, almost as much as China's increase right there! Thanks Vlad! Russia, China (they make it too), Nigeria, Venezuela (thanks Hugo) and even Iraq, have ramped up production over the past two years and it is now estimated that there are 2.5Mbd of excess production capacity globally, the most in 5 years. That number is expected to rise to 4Mbd by next year, even assuming a 1.8% (high) increase in global demand. Should the rest of the planet follow the U.S. with a 1.8% DECREASE in demand, there could be as much as 8M barrels overproduced every day in 2008 -- the most in history!
seekingalpha.com/artic...
"Should Saudi Arabia decide to hold back volumes to maintain prices, their proven capacity utilization would probably need to drop to 75-77%, which has historically been a threshold level. While this may sustain pricing for others, it would of course lower Saudi's market share, given that few other OPEC members seem inclined to assist."

8 MPD overproduced in 2008? Wow Phil stroke of genius. What an awesome prediction. And china's demand far exceeded those projections. And oil on its last legs? oil spent only 30 days below the price at which you made this stupid prediction.