saifl's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/7990/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/146736-preserve-your-wealth-with-precious-metals?source=feed#comment-574005 574005 CEF) is much better, in spite of Nick's efforts to degrade it with stupid innuendos on their site.]]> Sat, 04 Jul 2009 14:54:49 -0400 CEF) is much better, in spite of Nick's efforts to degrade it with stupid innuendos on their site.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140475-the-curious-problem-of-gold-and-silver-coins-as-legal-u-s-tender?source=feed#comment-525130 525130 Sun, 31 May 2009 11:29:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131982-post-crisis-texas-housing-laws-could-help-all-banks?source=feed#comment-470996 470996 Thanks,]]> Tue, 21 Apr 2009 09:55:00 -0400 Thanks,]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83729-options-trader-thursday-outlook?source=feed#comment-198852 198852 July31st 07 CFTC report, Net Speculator long position in oil 130,000 contracts oil price $72.
June 25th 08 CFTC report Net Speculator long position in oil 12,000 contracts oil price $138.
Speculator positions down by 90% and prices double.
can you explain that on your Speculator theory?]]> Sat, 05 Jul 2008 09:53:13 -0400 July31st 07 CFTC report, Net Speculator long position in oil 130,000 contracts oil price $72.
June 25th 08 CFTC report Net Speculator long position in oil 12,000 contracts oil price $138.
Speculator positions down by 90% and prices double.
can you explain that on your Speculator theory?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83729-options-trader-thursday-outlook?source=feed#comment-198850 198850 I trash him not on a personal level. I trash him because he misinforms the public about how serious a problem we have with "peak oil".
I have been in this since $30 a barrel and I have heard all you guys explaining it away with Iraq war, China surge in demand, Weak dollar, refining capacity (lol that was freaking funny) and Speculation.
Do you know which was the best performing commodity from 2001?
It was Rhodium. 99% of the people who trade futures have not heard about it. Because it does not have a futures market. The Commodity bull market has just begun. Like Phil Davis and you it has many detractors which means we are still pretty early.
What do you think happened from 1970-1980? Gold went up from $35 to $850. Sure many called it a bubble after it was up 3X.
It went up another 8 fold after that!.
"Do you live in the United States?"
Yes.]]> Sat, 05 Jul 2008 09:43:58 -0400 I trash him not on a personal level. I trash him because he misinforms the public about how serious a problem we have with "peak oil".
I have been in this since $30 a barrel and I have heard all you guys explaining it away with Iraq war, China surge in demand, Weak dollar, refining capacity (lol that was freaking funny) and Speculation.
Do you know which was the best performing commodity from 2001?
It was Rhodium. 99% of the people who trade futures have not heard about it. Because it does not have a futures market. The Commodity bull market has just begun. Like Phil Davis and you it has many detractors which means we are still pretty early.
What do you think happened from 1970-1980? Gold went up from $35 to $850. Sure many called it a bubble after it was up 3X.
It went up another 8 fold after that!.
"Do you live in the United States?"
Yes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83729-options-trader-thursday-outlook?source=feed#comment-198806 198806 That's right, we have rounding errors in our inventory reports bigger than China's entire daily import consumption! China's demand will grow by 10% (300Kbd, best case) next year? Bring it on! U.S. passenger cars alone consume 10Mb of oil PER DAY, we could save 300K barrels by checking our tire pressure!

Call us when you get to 5M barrels a day, which, at the current growth rate, will be around 2015. If between today and 2015 President Gore raises the mileage requirements for cars from 20mpg to 35mpg (where Europe is now), the U.S. will save more imported oil than China is projected to consume in its entirety! What would the headlines be if we projected China's net oil demand slipping to 0 by 2015?

Russia is doing it's best for China, bumping production up 2.1% this year, that's 200Kbd, almost as much as China's increase right there! Thanks Vlad! Russia, China (they make it too), Nigeria, Venezuela (thanks Hugo) and even Iraq, have ramped up production over the past two years and it is now estimated that there are 2.5Mbd of excess production capacity globally, the most in 5 years. That number is expected to rise to 4Mbd by next year, even assuming a 1.8% (high) increase in global demand. Should the rest of the planet follow the U.S. with a 1.8% DECREASE in demand, there could be as much as 8M barrels overproduced every day in 2008 -- the most in history!
seekingalpha.com/artic...
"Should Saudi Arabia decide to hold back volumes to maintain prices, their proven capacity utilization would probably need to drop to 75-77%, which has historically been a threshold level. While this may sustain pricing for others, it would of course lower Saudi's market share, given that few other OPEC members seem inclined to assist."

8 MPD overproduced in 2008? Wow Phil stroke of genius. What an awesome prediction. And china's demand far exceeded those projections. And oil on its last legs? oil spent only 30 days below the price at which you made this stupid prediction.
]]> Sat, 05 Jul 2008 02:23:37 -0400 That's right, we have rounding errors in our inventory reports bigger than China's entire daily import consumption! China's demand will grow by 10% (300Kbd, best case) next year? Bring it on! U.S. passenger cars alone consume 10Mb of oil PER DAY, we could save 300K barrels by checking our tire pressure!

Call us when you get to 5M barrels a day, which, at the current growth rate, will be around 2015. If between today and 2015 President Gore raises the mileage requirements for cars from 20mpg to 35mpg (where Europe is now), the U.S. will save more imported oil than China is projected to consume in its entirety! What would the headlines be if we projected China's net oil demand slipping to 0 by 2015?

Russia is doing it's best for China, bumping production up 2.1% this year, that's 200Kbd, almost as much as China's increase right there! Thanks Vlad! Russia, China (they make it too), Nigeria, Venezuela (thanks Hugo) and even Iraq, have ramped up production over the past two years and it is now estimated that there are 2.5Mbd of excess production capacity globally, the most in 5 years. That number is expected to rise to 4Mbd by next year, even assuming a 1.8% (high) increase in global demand. Should the rest of the planet follow the U.S. with a 1.8% DECREASE in demand, there could be as much as 8M barrels overproduced every day in 2008 -- the most in history!
seekingalpha.com/artic...
"Should Saudi Arabia decide to hold back volumes to maintain prices, their proven capacity utilization would probably need to drop to 75-77%, which has historically been a threshold level. While this may sustain pricing for others, it would of course lower Saudi's market share, given that few other OPEC members seem inclined to assist."

8 MPD overproduced in 2008? Wow Phil stroke of genius. What an awesome prediction. And china's demand far exceeded those projections. And oil on its last legs? oil spent only 30 days below the price at which you made this stupid prediction.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83729-options-trader-thursday-outlook?source=feed#comment-198803 198803 seekingalpha.com/artic...
This is hilarious.
By the way, do you know how much you can buy oil for in Dec 2012? $67.38 for guaranteed delivery of as much oil as you want. Where is T. Boone Pickens? This is 5 years past his peak oil $200 prediction, he should have a billion contracts at this price shouldn't he? Come on T Boone, let's put some money where that mouth is!"

So much bullcrap there and the price of oil has doubled. Mr Penguin continues to huff and puff. In 2 years it will double again and then again moron phil will talk the same BS.
World oil production is flat for about 3 years now (your fav EIA and IEA stats) with demand rapidly rising in the emerging economies.
]]> Sat, 05 Jul 2008 02:12:11 -0400 seekingalpha.com/artic...
This is hilarious.
By the way, do you know how much you can buy oil for in Dec 2012? $67.38 for guaranteed delivery of as much oil as you want. Where is T. Boone Pickens? This is 5 years past his peak oil $200 prediction, he should have a billion contracts at this price shouldn't he? Come on T Boone, let's put some money where that mouth is!"

So much bullcrap there and the price of oil has doubled. Mr Penguin continues to huff and puff. In 2 years it will double again and then again moron phil will talk the same BS.
World oil production is flat for about 3 years now (your fav EIA and IEA stats) with demand rapidly rising in the emerging economies.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83729-options-trader-thursday-outlook?source=feed#comment-198591 198591 How come Sugar is down 45% from 2006 with Speculators being long all the way?]]> Fri, 04 Jul 2008 12:17:39 -0400 How come Sugar is down 45% from 2006 with Speculators being long all the way?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83563-options-trader-wednesday-outlook?source=feed#comment-197611 197611 americanenergycrisis.b...]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 21:04:08 -0400 americanenergycrisis.b...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83563-options-trader-wednesday-outlook?source=feed#comment-197610 197610 Here read this site,
americanenergycrisis.b...
You will see how easy it was for some people to say that the banks are freaking doomed.]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 21:03:49 -0400 Here read this site,
americanenergycrisis.b...
You will see how easy it was for some people to say that the banks are freaking doomed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83563-options-trader-wednesday-outlook?source=feed#comment-197216 197216 Hey moron you still have not answered my question. How come Natural gas is up more than 80% this year with the largest net speculator short position?]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 10:59:36 -0400 Hey moron you still have not answered my question. How come Natural gas is up more than 80% this year with the largest net speculator short position?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82206-oil-bubble-breaking-barron-s-outlines-the-case-but-the-argument-is-weak?source=feed#comment-190494 190494 12 million barrels for contracts that span 7 years? At current consumption rates that would not be 85 million barrels that would be 85 million barrels per day or about 210 billion barrels so 12 million is peanuts.
]]> Sun, 22 Jun 2008 19:56:11 -0400 12 million barrels for contracts that span 7 years? At current consumption rates that would not be 85 million barrels that would be 85 million barrels per day or about 210 billion barrels so 12 million is peanuts.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82206-oil-bubble-breaking-barron-s-outlines-the-case-but-the-argument-is-weak?source=feed#comment-190488 190488 www.cftc.gov/dea/futur...

As for elemenary math I thought you were smart enough to subtract the long from the short i.e 203,000 from 191000. I am sorry ..lets go over it again as to what net long means
It means the difference between the long and short.

and here..for August 2007
www.cftc.gov/files/dea...

CRUDE OIL, LIGHT SWEET - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-067651
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 08/07/07 |
----------------------... NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
----------------------...
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
----------------------...
(CONTRACTS OF 1,000 BARRELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,504,817
COMMITMENTS
230,904 124,646 288,467 900,395 1017930 1419766 1431043 85,051 73,774

CHANGES FROM 07/31/07 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -16,420)
-33,491 -12,258 8,230 -412 -2,565 -25,673 -6,593 9,253 -9,827

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
15.3 8.3 19.2 59.8 67.6 94.3 95.1 5.7 4.9

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 318)
99 93 130 82 99 263 262
]]> Sun, 22 Jun 2008 19:53:59 -0400 www.cftc.gov/dea/futur...

As for elemenary math I thought you were smart enough to subtract the long from the short i.e 203,000 from 191000. I am sorry ..lets go over it again as to what net long means
It means the difference between the long and short.

and here..for August 2007
www.cftc.gov/files/dea...

CRUDE OIL, LIGHT SWEET - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-067651
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 08/07/07 |
----------------------... NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
----------------------...
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
----------------------...
(CONTRACTS OF 1,000 BARRELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,504,817
COMMITMENTS
230,904 124,646 288,467 900,395 1017930 1419766 1431043 85,051 73,774

CHANGES FROM 07/31/07 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -16,420)
-33,491 -12,258 8,230 -412 -2,565 -25,673 -6,593 9,253 -9,827

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
15.3 8.3 19.2 59.8 67.6 94.3 95.1 5.7 4.9

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 318)
99 93 130 82 99 263 262
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82206-oil-bubble-breaking-barron-s-outlines-the-case-but-the-argument-is-weak?source=feed#comment-190141 190141 FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 06/17/08 |
----------------------... NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
----------------------...
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
----------------------...
(CONTRACTS OF 1,000 BARRELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,335,207
COMMITMENTS
203,806 191,094 219,645 825,031 823,129 1248482 1233868 86,725 101,339

CHANGES FROM 06/10/08 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -83,542)
-14,678 -2,144 -25,976 -57,714 -73,551 -98,368 -101,671 14,826 18,129

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
15.3 14.3 16.5 61.8 61.6 93.5 92.4 6.5 7.6

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 320)
85 121 126 85 100 256 270
Yeah speculators are long a whopping 12,000 contracts. You know how many they were long when oil was at $78 last august? 110,000 contracts. So the price went up 80% and the number of net long contracts fell by 90%. How my ***you are a genius...There is a positive correlation. Lets stop the presses. We have discovered the damn truth]]> Sun, 22 Jun 2008 11:02:12 -0400 FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 06/17/08 |
----------------------... NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
----------------------...
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
----------------------...
(CONTRACTS OF 1,000 BARRELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,335,207
COMMITMENTS
203,806 191,094 219,645 825,031 823,129 1248482 1233868 86,725 101,339

CHANGES FROM 06/10/08 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -83,542)
-14,678 -2,144 -25,976 -57,714 -73,551 -98,368 -101,671 14,826 18,129

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
15.3 14.3 16.5 61.8 61.6 93.5 92.4 6.5 7.6

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 320)
85 121 126 85 100 256 270
Yeah speculators are long a whopping 12,000 contracts. You know how many they were long when oil was at $78 last august? 110,000 contracts. So the price went up 80% and the number of net long contracts fell by 90%. How my ***you are a genius...There is a positive correlation. Lets stop the presses. We have discovered the damn truth]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81815-options-trader-wednesday-outlook?source=feed#comment-189962 189962 FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 06/17/08 |
----------------------... NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
----------------------...
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
----------------------...
(CONTRACTS OF 1,000 BARRELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,335,207
COMMITMENTS
203,806 191,094 219,645 825,031 823,129 1248482 1233868 86,725 101,339

CHANGES FROM 06/10/08 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -83,542)
-14,678 -2,144 -25,976 -57,714 -73,551 -98,368 -101,671 14,826 18,129

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
15.3 14.3 16.5 61.8 61.6 93.5 92.4 6.5 7.6

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 320)
85 121 126 85 100 256 270

Hey jjason moron read above. from CFTC. Yeah speculators are long a whopping 12,000 contracts. You know how many they were long when oil was at $78 last august? 110,000 contracts. So the price went up 80% and the number of net long contracts fell by 90%. How my ***you are a genius...There is a positive correaltion. Lets stop the presses. Jmoron with Phil Moron has discovered the damn truth. ]]> Sun, 22 Jun 2008 02:34:21 -0400 FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 06/17/08 |
----------------------... NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
----------------------...
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
----------------------...
(CONTRACTS OF 1,000 BARRELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,335,207
COMMITMENTS
203,806 191,094 219,645 825,031 823,129 1248482 1233868 86,725 101,339

CHANGES FROM 06/10/08 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -83,542)
-14,678 -2,144 -25,976 -57,714 -73,551 -98,368 -101,671 14,826 18,129

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
15.3 14.3 16.5 61.8 61.6 93.5 92.4 6.5 7.6

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 320)
85 121 126 85 100 256 270

Hey jjason moron read above. from CFTC. Yeah speculators are long a whopping 12,000 contracts. You know how many they were long when oil was at $78 last august? 110,000 contracts. So the price went up 80% and the number of net long contracts fell by 90%. How my ***you are a genius...There is a positive correaltion. Lets stop the presses. Jmoron with Phil Moron has discovered the damn truth. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82128-options-trader-friday-outlook?source=feed#comment-189924 189924 The reason no-one buys those contracts is that they are illiquid. But the decembers do trade. companies buy the december and then as the contract comes close, they close out the december and simultaneously take long positions in other months. That is how hedging is done. Now go back and read it slowly and then hit yourself a couple of times till it sinks in.Ok?
That said put in a bid $1 above what the ask is for the december is trading for those years and I will sell you all you want on any month? ok?.
And oh yeah 300 million barrels sold? and the price fell only $2? THAT is your logic? Who took the other side of that moron?
The net speculator long position is so small that only someone as stupid as you could think that prices could be influenced even marginally with that.
and BTW you still have not responded about Sugar and Natural gas as to why your imbecile theoires fail to explain "speculation" with prices. ]]> Sat, 21 Jun 2008 22:08:25 -0400 The reason no-one buys those contracts is that they are illiquid. But the decembers do trade. companies buy the december and then as the contract comes close, they close out the december and simultaneously take long positions in other months. That is how hedging is done. Now go back and read it slowly and then hit yourself a couple of times till it sinks in.Ok?
That said put in a bid $1 above what the ask is for the december is trading for those years and I will sell you all you want on any month? ok?.
And oh yeah 300 million barrels sold? and the price fell only $2? THAT is your logic? Who took the other side of that moron?
The net speculator long position is so small that only someone as stupid as you could think that prices could be influenced even marginally with that.
and BTW you still have not responded about Sugar and Natural gas as to why your imbecile theoires fail to explain "speculation" with prices. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81394-speculation-and-the-price-of-oil?source=feed#comment-185791 185791 www.cftc.gov/dea/futur...
go down this and see Crude oil Light Sweet. Figures change every week. For the current week
218,3848 long contracts for speculators and 193,238 short contracts for speculators. That is a net long position of about 25,300 contracts. That is the amount the world uses in less than 8 hours. Do you really believe we can influence prices with that?
Trivia qt number 1: Which market has the largest net short position of Speculators in 2008?
Answer:Natural gas
What happened to natural Gas prices?
Went up by 70%. Outperformed even oil
Largest short position and went up 70%. How do you explain that?
Trivia qt number 2:
Since 2006 which commodity has had a very large net long speculator position and gone down by 40%?
Sugar. you know why? Because production always trumps speculation. World production increased creaming the speculators who were long.
Not convinced?
Trivia qt number 3.
which commodity has outperformed all others since 2002?
rhodium...up 2400%... and guess what no commodity futures market for Rhodium.
Till a year back Uranium was outperforming oil with a price increase of 2000% or 20 fold from $7 to as high as $150 a pound and they did not even have a futures market for it till recently. In fact the price peaked 3 weeks after the futures were introduced by Nymex.]]> Sun, 15 Jun 2008 08:23:05 -0400 www.cftc.gov/dea/futur...
go down this and see Crude oil Light Sweet. Figures change every week. For the current week
218,3848 long contracts for speculators and 193,238 short contracts for speculators. That is a net long position of about 25,300 contracts. That is the amount the world uses in less than 8 hours. Do you really believe we can influence prices with that?
Trivia qt number 1: Which market has the largest net short position of Speculators in 2008?
Answer:Natural gas
What happened to natural Gas prices?
Went up by 70%. Outperformed even oil
Largest short position and went up 70%. How do you explain that?
Trivia qt number 2:
Since 2006 which commodity has had a very large net long speculator position and gone down by 40%?
Sugar. you know why? Because production always trumps speculation. World production increased creaming the speculators who were long.
Not convinced?
Trivia qt number 3.
which commodity has outperformed all others since 2002?
rhodium...up 2400%... and guess what no commodity futures market for Rhodium.
Till a year back Uranium was outperforming oil with a price increase of 2000% or 20 fold from $7 to as high as $150 a pound and they did not even have a futures market for it till recently. In fact the price peaked 3 weeks after the futures were introduced by Nymex.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81283-options-trader-friday-outlook?source=feed#comment-185656 185656 Look at the Put/Call ratio on USO and DBO.. bearish on oil
90% of analyst projections for 2009 price are below current price..i.e bearish on oil
The commercials who have yet to be collectively wrong and continuing to buy and are not hedging at higher prices.
I think all you bears are about the get your collective posteriors kicked.
]]> Sat, 14 Jun 2008 18:45:54 -0400 Look at the Put/Call ratio on USO and DBO.. bearish on oil
90% of analyst projections for 2009 price are below current price..i.e bearish on oil
The commercials who have yet to be collectively wrong and continuing to buy and are not hedging at higher prices.
I think all you bears are about the get your collective posteriors kicked.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81283-options-trader-friday-outlook?source=feed#comment-185319 185319 According to Soros, there is "a speculative froth in the price of oil that has developed in the last few months. But underlying it," he warned, "there is this problem that the cost of replacing existing oil supply is rising, and the oil fields' depletion is accelerating. And there's the rising standard of living in developed world, which means that if we now head into a recession, the price of oil would come down. But once we come out of recession, it would go up again. There's a need to develop alternative sources of energy. We do have also global warming, which is a very serious problem. So while we are focusing on these speculative excesses, we should not lose sight of these underlying problems."

yeah sounds like a bubble]]> Fri, 13 Jun 2008 21:02:14 -0400 According to Soros, there is "a speculative froth in the price of oil that has developed in the last few months. But underlying it," he warned, "there is this problem that the cost of replacing existing oil supply is rising, and the oil fields' depletion is accelerating. And there's the rising standard of living in developed world, which means that if we now head into a recession, the price of oil would come down. But once we come out of recession, it would go up again. There's a need to develop alternative sources of energy. We do have also global warming, which is a very serious problem. So while we are focusing on these speculative excesses, we should not lose sight of these underlying problems."

yeah sounds like a bubble]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81283-options-trader-friday-outlook?source=feed#comment-185315 185315 Most of the homes ever built are still around.
Last year we used up 30 billion barrels of oil....and barring Petrobras discovery where they went around making bold claims and then backed off ..we have not discovered any significant new finds. Even the ones we have discovered wont come online in the next 5 years.
For the cost increases and time delays hitting major fields look no further than the Kashagan field.. a true elephant expected to produce 1 million barrels a day. Initially schedualed for 2006 it was delayed to 2007 then 2009 then 2011 and now expected to be online in 2013. The Kazakh govt is so annoyed they are threatening to kick ENI out of there.]]> Fri, 13 Jun 2008 20:57:27 -0400 Most of the homes ever built are still around.
Last year we used up 30 billion barrels of oil....and barring Petrobras discovery where they went around making bold claims and then backed off ..we have not discovered any significant new finds. Even the ones we have discovered wont come online in the next 5 years.
For the cost increases and time delays hitting major fields look no further than the Kashagan field.. a true elephant expected to produce 1 million barrels a day. Initially schedualed for 2006 it was delayed to 2007 then 2009 then 2011 and now expected to be online in 2013. The Kazakh govt is so annoyed they are threatening to kick ENI out of there.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80560-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-183786 183786 Your argument from 2006 showed how wrong you were in the longer term. If "oil was the biggest lie of the last 24 months" back then. how did it increase another 100% from those peaks?
]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 20:46:56 -0400 Your argument from 2006 showed how wrong you were in the longer term. If "oil was the biggest lie of the last 24 months" back then. how did it increase another 100% from those peaks?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80560-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-183262 183262 Also just becuase something is traded does not mean it needs to be delivered. traders trade stocks everyday...85% of the volume is day trading. You would probably something as stupid as if all those people who bought Cisco "forced delivery" Cisco would go to $200 or if all those sellers who day trade let their positions sit and not cover it would go $1.
]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 10:04:41 -0400 Also just becuase something is traded does not mean it needs to be delivered. traders trade stocks everyday...85% of the volume is day trading. You would probably something as stupid as if all those people who bought Cisco "forced delivery" Cisco would go to $200 or if all those sellers who day trade let their positions sit and not cover it would go $1.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80560-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-183121 183121
Demand forecasts assume that the US drivers will continue to average just 21 mpg even though European drivers have been at 35 mpg since 2003. There is also the assumption that the world economy will continue expanding at this breakneck pace no matter what they charge for a barrel of oil.

This is why the long rates are heading down. In the long run, all lies are revealed and the oil lie of the past 24 months is one of the biggest ever told. I'm just not so sure how fast it will come undone as the "shortage" has moved from rumor to common knowledge in record time thanks to the incredible spin that has been placed on it by an unprecedented cooperation of Big Oil, OPEC, and our own government, which happens to be run by two oil men...
By
Phil Davis Aug 2006.

At least my track record on oil is much better than his.]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 07:34:02 -0400
Demand forecasts assume that the US drivers will continue to average just 21 mpg even though European drivers have been at 35 mpg since 2003. There is also the assumption that the world economy will continue expanding at this breakneck pace no matter what they charge for a barrel of oil.

This is why the long rates are heading down. In the long run, all lies are revealed and the oil lie of the past 24 months is one of the biggest ever told. I'm just not so sure how fast it will come undone as the "shortage" has moved from rumor to common knowledge in record time thanks to the incredible spin that has been placed on it by an unprecedented cooperation of Big Oil, OPEC, and our own government, which happens to be run by two oil men...
By
Phil Davis Aug 2006.

At least my track record on oil is much better than his.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80560-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-183016 183016 Wed, 11 Jun 2008 01:19:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80560-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-183014 183014 What about NG? the short position there and the OI is much higher? No explanation? What about Sugar? you have been spewing your BS since oil was in the 50's. And if i remember correctly you first went short in the 110's range.
]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 01:17:41 -0400 What about NG? the short position there and the OI is much higher? No explanation? What about Sugar? you have been spewing your BS since oil was in the 50's. And if i remember correctly you first went short in the 110's range.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80560-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-182663 182663 Tue, 10 Jun 2008 13:20:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80560-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-182662 182662 non-OPEC production. OECD oil stocks fell 8.1 million barrels in April to 2.562
billion, "in stark contrast to the typical build," IEA said. Total oil cover
remains "above average" at 53.4 days, IEA said.

The IEA, "which cut its demand growth the slowest rate since 2002, also cut
expectations for supply growth, as well," said Fitzpatrick.

OECD stocks fell at a time when they should be building, he said. "So, while
market participants are starting to recognize that economic deterioration has
begun, supply may be stretched more than producers contend," he said. ]]> Tue, 10 Jun 2008 13:19:34 -0400 non-OPEC production. OECD oil stocks fell 8.1 million barrels in April to 2.562
billion, "in stark contrast to the typical build," IEA said. Total oil cover
remains "above average" at 53.4 days, IEA said.

The IEA, "which cut its demand growth the slowest rate since 2002, also cut
expectations for supply growth, as well," said Fitzpatrick.

OECD stocks fell at a time when they should be building, he said. "So, while
market participants are starting to recognize that economic deterioration has
begun, supply may be stretched more than producers contend," he said. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80560-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-182655 182655

]]> Tue, 10 Jun 2008 13:13:59 -0400

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80560-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-182363 182363 Firstly, you assume there that everyone is driving in the most inefficient manner, I assure you they are not. Second you convert your global oil story to a global gasoline story. It clearly is not. there are lot of places where you cannot decrease oil usage so easily.
Decrease oil usage by 5%? Barring the fall of USSR oil usage has never gone down in a single year globally and you expect how much of a decline? If everyone consumed as much as an average american we wold require 400 million barrels per day so as much as there is romm to cut back here there is tons of room to increase consumption elsewhere.
So stop being so a ****ing moron on speculators. Check the CFTC report on oil Speculators we have addressed before but here is more
www.cftc.gov/dea/futur...
go down this and see Crude oil Light Sweet. Figures change every week. For the current week
216,388 long contracts for speculators and 188,092 short contracts for speculators. That is a net long position of about 28,300 contracts. That is the amount the world uses in 8 hours. Do you really believe we can influence prices with that?
Trivia qt number 1: Which market has the largest net short position of Speculators in 2008?
Answer:Natural gas
What happened to natural Gas prices?
Went up by 70%. Outperformed even oil
Largest short position and went up 70%. How do you explain that?
Trivia qt number 2:
Since 2006 which commodity has had a very large net long speculator position and gone down by 40%?
Sugar. you know why? Because production always trumps speculation. World production increased creaming the speculators who were long.
Not convinced?
Trivia qt number 3.
which commodity has outperformed all others since 2002?
rhodium...up 2400%... and guess what no commodity futures market for Rhodium.
Till a year back Uranium was outperforming oil with a price increase of 2000% or 20 fold from $7 to as high as $150 a pound and they did not even have a futures market for it till recently. In fact the price peaked 3 weeks after the futures were introduced by Nymex.

]]> Tue, 10 Jun 2008 08:49:01 -0400 Firstly, you assume there that everyone is driving in the most inefficient manner, I assure you they are not. Second you convert your global oil story to a global gasoline story. It clearly is not. there are lot of places where you cannot decrease oil usage so easily.
Decrease oil usage by 5%? Barring the fall of USSR oil usage has never gone down in a single year globally and you expect how much of a decline? If everyone consumed as much as an average american we wold require 400 million barrels per day so as much as there is romm to cut back here there is tons of room to increase consumption elsewhere.
So stop being so a ****ing moron on speculators. Check the CFTC report on oil Speculators we have addressed before but here is more
www.cftc.gov/dea/futur...
go down this and see Crude oil Light Sweet. Figures change every week. For the current week
216,388 long contracts for speculators and 188,092 short contracts for speculators. That is a net long position of about 28,300 contracts. That is the amount the world uses in 8 hours. Do you really believe we can influence prices with that?
Trivia qt number 1: Which market has the largest net short position of Speculators in 2008?
Answer:Natural gas
What happened to natural Gas prices?
Went up by 70%. Outperformed even oil
Largest short position and went up 70%. How do you explain that?
Trivia qt number 2:
Since 2006 which commodity has had a very large net long speculator position and gone down by 40%?
Sugar. you know why? Because production always trumps speculation. World production increased creaming the speculators who were long.
Not convinced?
Trivia qt number 3.
which commodity has outperformed all others since 2002?
rhodium...up 2400%... and guess what no commodity futures market for Rhodium.
Till a year back Uranium was outperforming oil with a price increase of 2000% or 20 fold from $7 to as high as $150 a pound and they did not even have a futures market for it till recently. In fact the price peaked 3 weeks after the futures were introduced by Nymex.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79155-peyto-energy-trust-a-truly-unique-energy-investment?source=feed#comment-175838 175838 Thu, 29 May 2008 08:45:32 -0400