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Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

americanenergycrisis.b...

Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

I think anyone with common sense could have.
Here read this site,
americanenergycrisis.b...
You will see how easy it was for some people to say that the banks are freaking doomed.

Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

So you short oil and you are right and everyone else who goes long is a criminal?
Hey moron you still have not answered my question. How come Natural gas is up more than 80% this year with the largest net speculator short position?

Oil Bubble Breaking? Barron's Outlines the Case, But the Argument is Weak

And Reinko my dear einstein...that is the net long position for all contracts across the board. How dumb can you be? I mean really How dumb can you be?
12 million barrels for contracts that span 7 years? At current consumption rates that would not be 85 million barrels that would be 85 million barrels per day or about 210 billion barrels so 12 million is peanuts.

Oil Bubble Breaking? Barron's Outlines the Case, But the Argument is Weak

Fair enough reinko..go verify
www.cftc.gov/dea/futur...

As for elemenary math I thought you were smart enough to subtract the long from the short i.e 203,000 from 191000. I am sorry ..lets go over it again as to what net long means
It means the difference between the long and short.

and here..for August 2007
www.cftc.gov/files/dea...

CRUDE OIL, LIGHT SWEET - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-067651
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 08/07/07 |
----------------------... NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
----------------------...
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
----------------------...
(CONTRACTS OF 1,000 BARRELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,504,817
COMMITMENTS
230,904 124,646 288,467 900,395 1017930 1419766 1431043 85,051 73,774

CHANGES FROM 07/31/07 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -16,420)
-33,491 -12,258 8,230 -412 -2,565 -25,673 -6,593 9,253 -9,827

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
15.3 8.3 19.2 59.8 67.6 94.3 95.1 5.7 4.9

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 318)
99 93 130 82 99 263 262

Oil Bubble Breaking? Barron's Outlines the Case, But the Argument is Weak

CRUDE OIL, LIGHT SWEET - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-067651
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 06/17/08 |
----------------------... NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
----------------------...
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
----------------------...
(CONTRACTS OF 1,000 BARRELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,335,207
COMMITMENTS
203,806 191,094 219,645 825,031 823,129 1248482 1233868 86,725 101,339

CHANGES FROM 06/10/08 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -83,542)
-14,678 -2,144 -25,976 -57,714 -73,551 -98,368 -101,671 14,826 18,129

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
15.3 14.3 16.5 61.8 61.6 93.5 92.4 6.5 7.6

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 320)
85 121 126 85 100 256 270
Yeah speculators are long a whopping 12,000 contracts. You know how many they were long when oil was at $78 last august? 110,000 contracts. So the price went up 80% and the number of net long contracts fell by 90%. How my ***you are a genius...There is a positive correlation. Lets stop the presses. We have discovered the damn truth

Speculation and the Price of Oil

Check the CFTC report on oil Speculators have been addressed here but here is more
www.cftc.gov/dea/futur...
go down this and see Crude oil Light Sweet. Figures change every week. For the current week
218,3848 long contracts for speculators and 193,238 short contracts for speculators. That is a net long position of about 25,300 contracts. That is the amount the world uses in less than 8 hours. Do you really believe we can influence prices with that?
Trivia qt number 1: Which market has the largest net short position of Speculators in 2008?
Answer:Natural gas
What happened to natural Gas prices?
Went up by 70%. Outperformed even oil
Largest short position and went up 70%. How do you explain that?
Trivia qt number 2:
Since 2006 which commodity has had a very large net long speculator position and gone down by 40%?
Sugar. you know why? Because production always trumps speculation. World production increased creaming the speculators who were long.
Not convinced?
Trivia qt number 3.
which commodity has outperformed all others since 2002?
rhodium...up 2400%... and guess what no commodity futures market for Rhodium.
Till a year back Uranium was outperforming oil with a price increase of 2000% or 20 fold from $7 to as high as $150 a pound and they did not even have a futures market for it till recently. In fact the price peaked 3 weeks after the futures were introduced by Nymex.

Where the Oil Rally Goes: Facts and Speculation

I say $1000 in 7 years.
www.financialsense.com...

Fundamentals Suggest Oil's Headed Much Higher

What in the world is wrong with people? Jet are you smoking pot? Nanosolar will reach $1/watt in 2010. Assuming a doubling every 2 years it will not make a dent till 2020 in electricity demand. Oil shale is a joke. Oil prices are 3X higher than the $30 you mentioned and still oil shale has not produced a single barrel.
Go back and check petrocanada's press release about Oil sands new projects being uneconomical at less than $85!
Plus the oil exporting conutries have no incentive to use your Nanosolar.
A single new smelter in SA will consume 55,000 barrels of oil per day. Do you know how much that is? That uses more energy than all installed solar capacity in the world.