saifl

Options Trader: Thursday Outlook

jjason maybe you can explain this
July31st 07 CFTC report, Net Speculator long position in oil 130,000 contracts oil price $72.
June 25th 08 CFTC report Net Speculator long position in oil 12,000 contracts oil price $138.
Speculator positions down by 90% and prices double.
can you explain that on your Speculator theory?

Options Trader: Thursday Outlook

In That case you should be against Phil davis as he is "Shorts" oil. That to me is Speculation.
I trash him not on a personal level. I trash him because he misinforms the public about how serious a problem we have with "peak oil".
I have been in this since $30 a barrel and I have heard all you guys explaining it away with Iraq war, China surge in demand, Weak dollar, refining capacity (lol that was freaking funny) and Speculation.
Do you know which was the best performing commodity from 2001?
It was Rhodium. 99% of the people who trade futures have not heard about it. Because it does not have a futures market. The Commodity bull market has just begun. Like Phil Davis and you it has many detractors which means we are still pretty early.
What do you think happened from 1970-1980? Gold went up from $35 to $850. Sure many called it a bubble after it was up 3X.
It went up another 8 fold after that!.
"Do you live in the United States?"
Yes.

Options Trader: Thursday Outlook

Some more bullsh** form pHil [Comment edited for abusive language. Commenter put on notice]
That's right, we have rounding errors in our inventory reports bigger than China's entire daily import consumption! China's demand will grow by 10% (300Kbd, best case) next year? Bring it on! U.S. passenger cars alone consume 10Mb of oil PER DAY, we could save 300K barrels by checking our tire pressure!

Call us when you get to 5M barrels a day, which, at the current growth rate, will be around 2015. If between today and 2015 President Gore raises the mileage requirements for cars from 20mpg to 35mpg (where Europe is now), the U.S. will save more imported oil than China is projected to consume in its entirety! What would the headlines be if we projected China's net oil demand slipping to 0 by 2015?

Russia is doing it's best for China, bumping production up 2.1% this year, that's 200Kbd, almost as much as China's increase right there! Thanks Vlad! Russia, China (they make it too), Nigeria, Venezuela (thanks Hugo) and even Iraq, have ramped up production over the past two years and it is now estimated that there are 2.5Mbd of excess production capacity globally, the most in 5 years. That number is expected to rise to 4Mbd by next year, even assuming a 1.8% (high) increase in global demand. Should the rest of the planet follow the U.S. with a 1.8% DECREASE in demand, there could be as much as 8M barrels overproduced every day in 2008 -- the most in history!
seekingalpha.com/artic...
"Should Saudi Arabia decide to hold back volumes to maintain prices, their proven capacity utilization would probably need to drop to 75-77%, which has historically been a threshold level. While this may sustain pricing for others, it would of course lower Saudi's market share, given that few other OPEC members seem inclined to assist."

8 MPD overproduced in 2008? Wow Phil stroke of genius. What an awesome prediction. And china's demand far exceeded those projections. And oil on its last legs? oil spent only 30 days below the price at which you made this stupid prediction.

Options Trader: Thursday Outlook

seekingalpha.com/artic...
This is hilarious.
By the way, do you know how much you can buy oil for in Dec 2012? $67.38 for guaranteed delivery of as much oil as you want. Where is T. Boone Pickens? This is 5 years past his peak oil $200 prediction, he should have a billion contracts at this price shouldn't he? Come on T Boone, let's put some money where that mouth is!"

So much bullcrap there and the price of oil has doubled. Mr Penguin continues to huff and puff. In 2 years it will double again and then again moron phil will talk the same BS.
World oil production is flat for about 3 years now (your fav EIA and IEA stats) with demand rapidly rising in the emerging economies.

Options Trader: Thursday Outlook

Hey Phil [Comment edited for abusive language. Commenter put on notice] you still have not answered my question. How come Natural gas is up more than 80% this year with the largest net speculator short position?
How come Sugar is down 45% from 2006 with Speculators being long all the way?

Europe Declares War on Weak Dollar; Gold Suffers Collateral Damage

Exceptionally well written.Thank you.