saifl

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

I love this concept of selectively addressing things you can. You still have not addressed NG and Sugar, or your moronic argument about Open interest driving prices.
Your argument from 2006 showed how wrong you were in the longer term. If "oil was the biggest lie of the last 24 months" back then. how did it increase another 100% from those peaks?

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

You are so retarded that I am beginning to think that this is a waste of time...but your comment about only the long positions held shows that if we tripled your IQ it would not land in double digits...
Also just becuase something is traded does not mean it needs to be delivered. traders trade stocks everyday...85% of the volume is day trading. You would probably something as stupid as if all those people who bought Cisco "forced delivery" Cisco would go to $200 or if all those sellers who day trade let their positions sit and not cover it would go $1.

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

So the long-term supply picture ignores the fact that there are 3 Trillion barrels of oil shale up in Canada (forecasts typically rely on getting just 4M barrels a day from Canada by 2030, despite what Suncor may tell its investors) and assume that coal and nuclear consumption will remain flat.

Demand forecasts assume that the US drivers will continue to average just 21 mpg even though European drivers have been at 35 mpg since 2003. There is also the assumption that the world economy will continue expanding at this breakneck pace no matter what they charge for a barrel of oil.

This is why the long rates are heading down. In the long run, all lies are revealed and the oil lie of the past 24 months is one of the biggest ever told. I'm just not so sure how fast it will come undone as the "shortage" has moved from rumor to common knowledge in record time thanks to the incredible spin that has been placed on it by an unprecedented cooperation of Big Oil, OPEC, and our own government, which happens to be run by two oil men...
By
Phil Davis Aug 2006.

At least my track record on oil is much better than his.

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

Tell you what if oil is a bubble it should burst at some point right? Will you shut up if oil averages of $150 in 2009?

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

"As you mention, there are still, even after the mass dumping of contracts, 282,411,000 (1,000 barrels per contact) barrels of oil scheduled for July delivery at $131 per barrel. Let's follow up every day and see how many of these barrels there is really a demand for and how many are total BS. I'll be putting my bet that 240,000 of those contracts are cancelled over the next 10 days."Yes Moron why does the price not fall on the expiration of each contract?
What about NG? the short position there and the OI is much higher? No explanation? What about Sugar? you have been spewing your BS since oil was in the 50's. And if i remember correctly you first went short in the 110's range.

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

"Stocks fell when they should be building". yeah sounds like a bubble!

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

The increase, however, follows extensive downward revisions to first-quarter
non-OPEC production. OECD oil stocks fell 8.1 million barrels in April to 2.562
billion, "in stark contrast to the typical build," IEA said. Total oil cover
remains "above average" at 53.4 days, IEA said.

The IEA, "which cut its demand growth the slowest rate since 2002, also cut
expectations for supply growth, as well," said Fitzpatrick.

OECD stocks fell at a time when they should be building, he said. "So, while
market participants are starting to recognize that economic deterioration has
begun, supply may be stretched more than producers contend," he said.

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

Really? What about the spot markets which have no futures? How do you explain that those prices are about the same? Did you see IEA 's report out this morning revising down their high production numbers by 0.7 million barrels per day total from their initial estimate? Did you read what I wrote about Sugar and Natural Gas?

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

Hey Phil, Hope you losing your shirt for being such a moron. Your arguments are so flawed that even a fifth grader could see past them, but apparently most of your fan club is dumb as you.
Firstly, you assume there that everyone is driving in the most inefficient manner, I assure you they are not. Second you convert your global oil story to a global gasoline story. It clearly is not. there are lot of places where you cannot decrease oil usage so easily.
Decrease oil usage by 5%? Barring the fall of USSR oil usage has never gone down in a single year globally and you expect how much of a decline? If everyone consumed as much as an average american we wold require 400 million barrels per day so as much as there is romm to cut back here there is tons of room to increase consumption elsewhere.
So stop being so a ****ing moron on speculators. Check the CFTC report on oil Speculators we have addressed before but here is more
www.cftc.gov/dea/futur...
go down this and see Crude oil Light Sweet. Figures change every week. For the current week
216,388 long contracts for speculators and 188,092 short contracts for speculators. That is a net long position of about 28,300 contracts. That is the amount the world uses in 8 hours. Do you really believe we can influence prices with that?
Trivia qt number 1: Which market has the largest net short position of Speculators in 2008?
Answer:Natural gas
What happened to natural Gas prices?
Went up by 70%. Outperformed even oil
Largest short position and went up 70%. How do you explain that?
Trivia qt number 2:
Since 2006 which commodity has had a very large net long speculator position and gone down by 40%?
Sugar. you know why? Because production always trumps speculation. World production increased creaming the speculators who were long.
Not convinced?
Trivia qt number 3.
which commodity has outperformed all others since 2002?
rhodium...up 2400%... and guess what no commodity futures market for Rhodium.
Till a year back Uranium was outperforming oil with a price increase of 2000% or 20 fold from $7 to as high as $150 a pound and they did not even have a futures market for it till recently. In fact the price peaked 3 weeks after the futures were introduced by Nymex.