saifl

Options Trader: Friday Outlook

Look at the small investor in CFTC report..bearish on oil
Look at the Put/Call ratio on USO and DBO.. bearish on oil
90% of analyst projections for 2009 price are below current price..i.e bearish on oil
The commercials who have yet to be collectively wrong and continuing to buy and are not hedging at higher prices.
I think all you bears are about the get your collective posteriors kicked.

Options Trader: Friday Outlook

And stop misquoting Soros...Every news agency has done that in tandem. WTF? This is what he said
According to Soros, there is "a speculative froth in the price of oil that has developed in the last few months. But underlying it," he warned, "there is this problem that the cost of replacing existing oil supply is rising, and the oil fields' depletion is accelerating. And there's the rising standard of living in developed world, which means that if we now head into a recession, the price of oil would come down. But once we come out of recession, it would go up again. There's a need to develop alternative sources of energy. We do have also global warming, which is a very serious problem. So while we are focusing on these speculative excesses, we should not lose sight of these underlying problems."

yeah sounds like a bubble

Options Trader: Friday Outlook

Key difference...all the nasdaq stocks were still there ...more could be and were issued all the time.
Most of the homes ever built are still around.
Last year we used up 30 billion barrels of oil....and barring Petrobras discovery where they went around making bold claims and then backed off ..we have not discovered any significant new finds. Even the ones we have discovered wont come online in the next 5 years.
For the cost increases and time delays hitting major fields look no further than the Kashagan field.. a true elephant expected to produce 1 million barrels a day. Initially schedualed for 2006 it was delayed to 2007 then 2009 then 2011 and now expected to be online in 2013. The Kazakh govt is so annoyed they are threatening to kick ENI out of there.

The Oil Scam Driving Crude Over $80

There are many varieties of oil that trade only on the spot market. There are no futures contracts and there are no speculators. And quite often they move differently than LSC on Nymex and have no fixed differential to LSC on NYMEX. ALL of those are up.
here,
www.upstreamonline.com...

As far as the rest of his comments..well there are a log higher speculators in the stock market than in the commodities market, I guess DOW jones should be at 1000 by the same logic.
And BTW the #%#% dodo should see what happened last friday with the Commitment of traders report before shooting is retarded mouth off. Speculators increased their net short poistions by 10,000 contracts as crude rose from 74 to 78.