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  • Will Silver Remain Forever $21? [View article]
    aperusdisvet - Could you please explain why the short positions held by the banks is illegal? I cannot find any law that governs short positions in the PM's.
    Aug 6 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Whipsaw Not Likely Over [View article]
    I see ZERO chance of gold confiscation and I am willing to bet my entire 5 ounce holdings... Yep, I own a whole five ounces that I bought back in about 2004. I do own a bit more silver but probably worth less than the five whole ounces of gold.... Now if this post makes you grin give it a like! :-)

    I am really just grinning from ear to ear and wonder why the heck you asked me of all people??? Not offended at all just got a true chuckle out of the question.

    Now if you asked me about my thoughts on investing in PM equities you probably would have gotten an even weirder response as I am probably best described as bi-polar. Heck, I am holding positions I made back in March 2013 in some of the three accounts we have and down MANY thousands on those holdings BUT I bought the same equities in one or two of the other accounts and have bought and sold them several times and I am up overall MANY thousands more!

    I continue to hold the big losers as I can't figure out any better place to put the money and I still am about 65% in cash so I don't need the money in the loser's to invest elsewhere!

    Now what is weird is I find this truly liberating in that on a big drop I buy more and sell on a decent rise over and over again. Since I have these big losers they kind of have become my "core" holdings if silver rises back over about $26. so I don't stress when I sell a position and make $50 to a few hundred dollars and find out later I do not get a "good" new entry point!

    So, bottom line is I really hope Avi is right about another big drop in the future as I sold a lot of my shares in the last run up and I am considering selling out of a few more if we get another 4 to 5% rise. If Avi is wrong and I do not get another good entry point I won't be depressed as I never lose money taking a profit on a position I held AND I still will have my current big losers to be my long term gains. (AG, CDE and NEM are currently my big losers in two of the three accounts.) The accounts are my wife's and my IRA's and a jointly held brokerage account.

    So, is this weird enough for you all????? :-)
    Jul 29 12:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Whipsaw Not Likely Over [View article]
    I have been giving a great deal of thought to what Avi writes and connecting the dots that lead to aspects of the PM markets such as the COT reports.

    I have been carefully reading PM future price predictions and articles written internally by these same commercial traders. I find they often refer to sentiment in their articles and have come to the conclusion that these commercial traders are in fact considering Elliot Wave sentiment in their positions.

    So, in my OPINION there really is no evidence I can see of actual manipulation, rather their reports support Avi's analysis of sentiment and investment decisions based on sentiment. I have stated many times that I do not totally buy into Elliot Wave analysis but I also truly find that Avi has the best grasp on sentiment and the impact it has on PM price movements. So, many of the COT reports actually support Avi's sentiment analysis FOR the PREVIOUS weeks article he wrote and potentially for the upcoming week.

    I further totally agree with Avi on this: "Folks, do you think we can keep the comments FOR ONCE to the article at hand and the CURRENT direction of the market rather than personal attacks? If you don't like my articles, or think I am wrong, no one is forcing you to be here."

    If you do not like the "weather reports" change channels. I say this as the attacks detract from the overall benefit for investors and traders in reading these weekly articles. They create too much background noise that has to be filtered out to allow clearly following the potential moves in either direction that Avi offers and the analysis of the article in the comments.

    Avi has even pointed out errors I have made in postings in short term mental lapses I have but I simply accepted the fact he pointed out a major flaw in my comment. Please try to do the same and I believe we will have a much more civil discussion and potentially make somewhat fewer poor decisions in our investing or trading.
    Jul 27 12:01 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will It Take For Me To Believe Metals Have Bottomed? [View article]

    Agreed - bad choice of a word - I should have used "trade" or "follow".
    Jul 16 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will It Take For Me To Believe Metals Have Bottomed? [View article]
    Avi -

    Thanks again for a short novel to read this week!

    I am not convinced we will take a huge drop from here and I do want to hold some positions long term so I moved into small and initial positions yesterday and this morning into SLW, PAAS and HL. I may be early but I did not move much into these initial positions - just enough so that I won't "FEEL" bad if silver takes a big run up from here. I am already ahead on the trades more than enough to cover the costs of the trades.....

    I spent last night exploring the long term silver market impact of the selling of the SIX BILLION ounces of the USA strategic silver stockpile from the 1960's through 2001 and the subsequent actions and law changes in Congress to continue the American Silver Eagle bullion program. It is VERY interesting reading and enough to convince me that silver has to potential to make bigger moves up than gold over the next few years.

    I also did some research into the transparent silver linings that the glass industry is using to reflect up to 90% of the heat from outside and I think it was 60% inside of homes. This "new" use of silver is expected to raise the industrial use of silver but I have not discovered the amount it would raise.

    I know this is a GLD thread but I also know a lot of the readers invest in both GLD and SLV and I thought a few might be interested in doing a bit of due diligence along the lines I am looking so I hope you don't mind my sharing this here as I think that what I read will at some point soon become a catalyst for impacting both silver and gold sentiment and I am reading everything you write as part of my due diligence.

    Thanks again,

    Michael S Hoover
    Jul 16 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will It Take For Me To Believe Metals Have Bottomed? [View article]

    I moved to 80% cash over the past two weeks. I believe that few equities are worth the gamble on holding them. I did hold onto a few miners and streamers, a small drug company and a small position in BAC.

    I am looking at some miners and streamers now for what I find to be attractive valuations but won't buy unless they shed about another 5% and then I will only be taking a first small position. (Watching: PAAS, EXK, HL, SVLC, SSRI, GPL, SLW, FCX, GG, IAG, PPP, XRA, AXU and ABX) The silver miners are my highest interest currently.
    Jul 14 11:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Potential Whipsaw Ahead [View article]
    Gold Dog -

    The fine print on Yahoo "Real time Quotes" includes this starting at the 5th sentence:

    "...... Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein."

    I get this currently but would like to find a free "real time" service before I even think about leveraged investing!
    Jul 12 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Potential Whipsaw Ahead [View article]

    To me it seems your aggressive use of leveraged positions would require being pretty much "glued" to your computer to track the market movements through each day invested in these high risk positions.

    I do not have the necessary time or multiple computers/screens to be so aggressive and I suspect most who are following the PM's and miners are more likely like me, with one computer and a couple of hours at most to assess the markets on any given day.

    So, with that rather lengthy opening I am curious about a couple of things. I am curious to know if you would share what percentage of your overall portfolio (not total dollars/currencies, just the percentage) that you are willing to put at risk in leveraged positions.

    I also would like to know how much time a day you put into your investing "work" and where do you get a "live" feed of the current "ask and sell" price. I have not found a Live time feed with both my brokerage account and MSN Money feeds being behind the actual market by minutes which would potentially crush one with funds at risk in the leveraged feeds.

    I do find your commentary to be of value in my decisions so I appreciate your non inflammatory counterpoints to Avi and wish that the others posting non Elliot Wave commentary and opinion were more like your style which is much easier to follow and logical.
    Jul 12 11:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Potential Whipsaw Ahead [View article]

    Thanks again for sharing the potential moves in either direction as you perceive sentiments impact.

    For those who doubt value in what Avi shares I have been in cash 60 to 80% since the start of 2013. I am holding mostly cash as I perceive the markets in general to be far too high for the actual earnings per share. I perceive that the PM markets, specifically miners and streamers to be the most beaten down group and the volatility offers potential profits in the moves. I only buy stocks outright and do not deal with shorts, strangles, puts ect.

    So with a maximum exposure of 40% of my savings in 2013 I was up a total of 11.1% and in 2014 as of this morning I am up 3.98%

    I will again note that I do not totally buy into Elliot Wave theory but I get huge value from Avi's sharing of turning points and probabilities for where GLD is heading. I tend to buy eqities too soon and also sell the positions too soon but I continue to make money in the middle ground while holding a huge cash position in case the markets take a huge drop or get into bear market territory as the FED tries to unwind the artificial support created by QE.

    This morning I would best describe that my use of Avi's articles is as a barometer...
    Jul 7 12:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Is Up 135% In The Past Year: Should That Bother Anyone? [View article]

    I believe you are wrong about MU. Two things I do before investing in any company is to look into insider selling and institutional buying and selling.

    Insiders are selling and I mean a LOT. The LARGEST Institutional owners are also SELLING huge volumes of their holdings.

    Not good signs in my opinion.....
    Jul 7 12:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are All The Copper Skeptics Out To Lunch? [View article]
    Shakeeb - I think you missed one point that bears some insight and weight in this discussion.

    The fact is that the multiple "owners" of the copper in Qingdao means there is a huge reduction in the actual inventory of copper in China. The missing aluminum and copper will require buying real inventories for the companies whose "claim" on the missing metals is unable to be filled.

    So, the bigger the actual problem in Qingdao is the larger the deficit in real metals in the country. Qingdao could also be just the tip of the iceberg in regard to missing metals inventories in China and potentially even in other countries.

    This could extend to include gold and silver which are probably in similar multiple owner claims. How many people really believe that all of the gold and silver contracts being sold could actually be covered with real silver and gold?

    I believe that missing metal is a world wide issue and should be at least considered by metal investors and traders in their analysis of miners, especially copper mining as most copper mines also contain significant amounts of gold in the ores.
    Jun 21 11:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Iraq Make Gold Soar? [View article]

    I really like how you always present both sides of the potential move. I have to also admit I kind of like reading all of the comments now. The ultra negatives used to bother me as such a waste of my time sorting through them. Now I read them for entertainment kind of like a cheap novel and free too!


    Michael S Hoover

    PS - I still remain in the uncommitted column on Elliot Wave but I remain firmly convinced you have the best handle on sentiment and it's drive on PM price movements.....
    Jun 15 01:39 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why The Junior Gold Miners Are Moving Higher [View article]
    Jeb -

    I think you have part of this right but you failed to see how the dots connect to the large institutions.

    The large institutions and bullion banks such as JPM are very likely acquiring the junior miners stock especially the juniors in safe countries such as Canada and the USA.

    The connection is the location of these junior miners to already existing mining operation of the majors such as GG, NEM, ABX and AUY. The majors have ALL severely curtailed exploration CAPEX investment and most have also stopped mining of the lower grade ores. These both hugely impact their mine life and proven reserves and to survive for the next decade the lowest cost alternative is buying the juniors who are mostly exploratory companies. When they publish their core drilling results the majors and "large investment" companies are carefully watching now.

    It is highly likely that within as few as four years the value of these juniors will at least double and more likely quadruple in value to the majors as additional drilling proves the size of the find(s) and gets added into know reserves either in the junior or the acquiring major.
    Jun 13 11:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seasonal Gold Moves: Is This The Catalyst That Gold Needs To Break Out Of Its Trading Range? [View article]
    21 of your comments IN A ROW, prior to your comment here back to me, were shilling of Westhaven. Anyone can click on your profile and see the proof of my comments to you, so perhaps it is time to give it a rest. Westhaven is a VERY high risk investment and inappropriate for most investors and traders. So, lets just part ways with this comment. I already noted that my 2nd post would be my last and now this will be unless you comment back and I believe a response is necessary.
    May 31 11:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is India Now The Catalyst For Gold? [View article]
    WHN_fan - This is the 2nd and last time I will post my commentary about this matter but, your shilling of Westhaven is getting old. It is very obvious and inappropriate in my opinion. Trying to manipulate others to invest in this tiny company to increase the value of your position is shameful.
    May 31 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment